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Stats Geek: Bay overlooked member of elite group
Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Hit 30 home runs. Drive in 100 runs. Score 100.

That's a very strong year, and rarer than most think.

Only three players have managed it in four of the past five years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Bay.

Almost everyone would guess the first two, but that third guy?

Nobody guesses "Jason Bay."

A year ago this month, when the question was who had done the 30-100-100 feat in three of the past four seasons, I was in a bar on Long Island with my brother. I asked a crowd the question as an American League playoff game was on the TV behind the bar.

While everyone was thinking and guessing, Bay hit a first-inning, three-run homer for the Boston Red Sox against the Los Angeles Angels -- and still nobody guessed "Bay."

Bay is steady, not spectacular. He is productive, not electrifying. He is not in the class of Pujols or A-Rod, sure Hall of Famers if voters judge them by statistics alone.

Bay has only 185 home runs through this season that he turned 31. That trail generally leads only to the Hall of Very Good, not Cooperstown. Still, Bay's recent five-year run had me wondering about the degree of difficulty in reaching this batting trinity.

So I paid $1.35 for the 24-hour rate on baseball-reference.com's indispensable "Play Index" and began punching in the criteria.

Thirty-eight players in baseball history have reached the 30-100-100 level in at least four seasons. Fifteen are still active. They are: A-Rod (12 seasons, the most all time); Pujols and Jim Thome (eight each); Ken Griffey Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield (six each); Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado and Chipper Jones (five); Bay, Jason Giambi, Andruw Jones, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Tejada (four each.)

We have come through a big power era, with parks getting smaller and players getting bigger, both legitimately and illegitimately. (Though performance-enhancing drugs are endemic in other sports, fans often focused only on their baseball effect, likely because so many such fans compare numbers like these.)

Comparing active players to those who played when runs were scarcer is unfair. Still, I was struck by how many great sluggers never reached 30-100-100 as often as Bay.

Reggie Jackson had only one season; Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell and Carl Yazstremski had two; Mark McGwire, Eddie Murray and Jim Rice had three.

Of course, Bay has never had the monster years those guys had either. He never has hit 40 home runs, never reached 120 RBIs, never hit more than .306. The only category in which he led a league was games played (162 for the Pirates in 2005).

That likely was his best year, finishing in the top 10 in batting, on-base average, slugging average, runs scored, hits, total bases, doubles, home runs, walks, times on base, extra-base hits and sacrifice flies. He threw in 21 steals in 22 attempts -- and finished 12th in the MVP balloting.

Bay should get more love from the sportswriters now that he is with a winner. Fenway Park is friendlier to right-handed batters than PNC Park, too, part of the reason Bay notched career highs in home runs (36) and RBIs (119), finishing third and second in the AL, respectively.

It's a good year to be a free agent. It's a very good year to be Jason Bay. The next contract may determine the place where Bay finally puts up truly spectacular numbers, but the odds of him getting on this next list are slim. It's mighty exclusive:

The all-time leaders in 30-100-100 years are: 1) Rodriguez, 12 seasons; 2) Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth, 11 seasons each; 5) Lou Gehrig, 10 seasons; 6) Hank Aaron, 9 seasons; 7) Jeff Bagwell, Willie Mays, Pujols, Thome, eight seasons each.

While on the subject of home runs and RBIs, some asked after Garrett Jones' short season of 21 home runs and 44 RBIs whether anyone has driven in fewer runs while hitting at least 20 home runs.

Five men have, all in the past quarter-century: Chris Hoiles, 20 and 40 for the Baltimore Orioles in 1992; Kevin Maas 21 and 41 for the New York Yankees in 1990; Chris Duncan, 22 and 43 for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006; Fred McGriff, 20 and 43 for the Toronto Blue Jays in 1987; and Carlton Fisk, 21 and 43 for the Chicago White Sox in 1984.

Thirty-three men hit at least 20 home runs in fewer than Jones' 358 plate appearances. The record belongs to McCovey, who hit 20 in just 261 plate appearances (229 AB) for the National League champion Giants in 1962.

Exclusive club

Only three players -- Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Bay -- have scored 100 runs, hit 30 home runs and had 100 RBIs in four of the past five seasons. Here are their numbers:

Year Pujols Rodriguez Bay
2005 124-41-117 124-48-130 110-32-101
2006 119-49-137 113-35-121 101-35-109
2007 99-32-103 143-54-156 78-21-84
2008 100-37-116 104-35-103 111-31-101
2009 124-47-135 78-30-100 103-36-119

Correction/Clarification: (Published Oct. 8, 2009) This story as originally published Oct. 7, 2009 listed an incorrect age for Boston Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay. He is 31 years old.
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.
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First published on October 7, 2009 at 12:00 am