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G-20 leaders reach broad agreement to head off economic crises
Saturday, September 26, 2009

In the same spot where the G-2 spilled blood to determine the 18th-century world order, the G-20 set an ambitious agenda for determining the 21st-century economic order, agreeing on more stringent regulation of financial markets, tieing banker compensation to long-term performance and phasing out $300 billion in global fossil-fuel subsidies.

The leaders of 19 countries and the European Union also agreed to make their Group of 20 the leading forum for coordinating global economic policy and to keep stimulus measures in place until the global recovery is secure.

President Barack Obama told reporters that the two-day summit had produced "a level of tangible global economic cooperation we have never seen before. We laid the groundwork today for long-term prosperity," he said at a news conference yesterday at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center. "The G-20 will take the lead in building a new approach to cooperation."

The ascent of the G-20 reflects the growing clout of emerging countries in Asia and Latin America. The new regime takes on responsibilities formerly delegated to the G-8, which includes major Western powers, Russia and Japan but excludes China, India and Brazil.

"It brings the structure into line with the economic reality of the world," said Bank of New York Mellon chief economist Richard B. Hoey. "This is intrinsically a better group to address these economic issues."

While there is concern that the shift will affect U.S. influence and interests, Mr. Hoey said "adjusting to reality on a timely basis is a positive step, because the alternative is to be too slow to adjust to reality, and that creates all kind of difficulties."

The rise of the G-20 was cemented at meetings in November and April, where it agreed on fiscal stimulus and other measures in response to the deepening global recession.

Stephen F. Auth, chief investment officer for global equity at Federated Investors, said the group would have risen to preeminence eventually, but "I think the crisis is accelerating that reality."

Robert Hunter, a senior adviser at the Rand Corp. and a former U.N. ambassador to NATO, wasn't all that impressed by the summit's results.

"It sounds as though they made some vague promises that everyone can take home and say they achieved something," he said. "That's better than nothing, but it shows that there's a long way to go to turn the G-20 into something with bite."

Mr. Hunter had hoped that there would be more specifics, particularly relating to financial regulation and bonuses. While G-20 leaders called for more stringent standards in awarding bonuses, there were no strict caps, which the United States has opposed.

And although the leaders' final summit statement put in place a plan to set economic objectives for individual countries and for them to be reviewed by the International Monetary Fund, there are no penalties for failing to comply.

"This is really a stock-taking and agenda-setting meeting, not one that is ready to come to closure on the kinds of reforms that are needed. The test is what they do between now and the next time they meet," Mr. Hunter said.

University of Maryland economist Peter Morici said the elevation of the G-20 could hinder progress with China on trade and currency issues. He believes that U.S. negotiators have a better chance of extracting concessions from China in bilateral talks. The G-20's multilateral approach will make it "difficult for us to put pressure on China."

He said the G-20 did nothing to address the growing U.S. trade deficit with China or to force the Chinese to revalue the yuan against the dollar, both of which he believes are necessary to sustain economic growth. "This is absolute capitulation by the Obama administration," he said.

Attorney Dennis Unkovic, who advises clients on doing business in China, said the G-20 will supplement, rather than replace, bilateral talks between countries over specific issues.

"I think it is logical that they refocus on creating a mechanism that will allow the decisions to be made by more countries. The reason is that the world is so intertwined, and no country can dictate anymore what the future economic direction will be," said Mr. Unkovic, a partner with Meyer Unkovic & Scott, Downtown.

Agreement on policies for regulating the financial industry and the compensation of bank executives was not a surprise because the major G-20 players had a greater consensus on what to do about those issues coming into the meeting. France and Germany have been the most outspoken about the need to rein in bankers' pay, arguing that big bonuses tied to short-term profits encouraged the reckless risk-taking that fueled the worldwide financial crisis.

"We've got to be tough" in cracking down on executive compensation British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said at a press briefing yesterday. "We will not condone the old condition of bonuses" based on a company's short-term gains, he said.

The G-20 statement included a blunt warning to global financial institutions that the rules of the game have changed.

"Where reckless behavior and a lack of responsibility led to the crisis, we will not allow a return to banking as usual," G-20 leaders stated.

Agreement is lacking on thornier issues, such as concern over China's currency and savings policies and soaring U.S. budget and trade deficits. The G-20 statement addressed those issues without naming names or laying out specific responses.

"Ensuring a strong recovery will necessitate adjustments across different parts of the global economy, while requiring microeconomic policies that promote adequate and balanced global demand," the statement said.

Leaders also reiterated their pledges against protectionist policies amid escalating tensions between the United States and China over Mr. Obama's imposition of steep tariffs on Chinese tires and China's restrictions on imports of U.S. films and books.

Alan Tonelson of the U.S. Business and Industry Council said G-20 statements addressing economic imbalances won't result in a global consensus on what is really needed: addressing China's currency policies that promote exports at the expense of U.S. workers.

"The Chinese follow an export-led model because they are terrified of rising unemployment. They know they can't create and maintain all the jobs they need by selling only to their own market," he said. "The United States is going to have to act unilaterally. It would be great to get more cooperation from the rest of the world, but that has not been forthcoming."

Mr. Tonelson said the G-20 will not be in a better position than the G-8 to reach agreement on the issue. "It will mean very, very little," he said. "Creating a new institution or expanding an old one does nothing per se."

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday announced that his country would host a G-20 leaders' summit in June 2010. Another leaders' summit is set for Seoul, Korea, in November next year.

Starting in 2011, the G-20 expects to meet annually. France was selected as the host country for that year.

Len Boselovic can be reached at lboselovic@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1941. Mark Belko and Patricia Sabatini contributed to this report.
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First published on September 26, 2009 at 12:00 am