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Analysis: OPEC, hoping for recovery, holds line on production
Thursday, September 10, 2009

VIENNA -- OPEC today said it will keep oil production quotas unchanged, banking on a recovery in the world economy to maintain prices near the current $71 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to maintain total production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day, and will urge members to adhere to their targets, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri in a news briefing. It was the third time this year that the group has met without revising the figure.

"Holding production was the prudent thing to do," Jason Schenker, president of Texas-based consultancy Prestige Economics LLC, said in an interview in Vienna.

The producer group, which accounts for about 40 percent of global crude supply, had been expected by analysts and most ministers to keep output unchanged after prices rallied.

Oil has gained 61 percent this year, last month reaching the $75 level identified by Saudi King Abdullah as satisfactory for consumers and producers.

Crude oil advanced for a fourth day. The contract for October delivery traded up 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $71.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 1:52 a.m. Vienna time.

"This $65-to-$75 range seems amenable to both producers and consumers," Mr. Schenker said. "If they'd cut when production is above quotas, and prices are amenable, it may not have been received well."

Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil and Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah confirmed the decision as they left OPEC's headquarters about 1 a.m. Vienna time today, after closed-door talks lasting three hours.

OPEC agreed late last year to cut production targets by 4.2 million barrels a day, after prices crashed more than $100 a barrel from a record set in July 2008. Oil dipped to $32.40 in December before recovering this year. In the past five months, production has risen from the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas.

Those 11 members pumped 26.055 million barrels a day in August, according to estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which indicates quota compliance of about 71 percent.

Compliance with existing production quotas is improving, and prices may rise further by the end of the year, Algeria's Mr. Khelil said.

Late yesterday, Ali al-Naimi, oil minister for Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, told reporters, "We are enjoying a good, fair price" for oil, so any slippage in compliance with production quotas is not a concern, while prices are "perfect."

Ministers from several OPEC member states, including Kuwait and Venezuela, had said this week that they didn't expect any change in allowed production volumes. Quotas were last changed in December. All 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last week also forecast no change in quotas.

Only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar pumped less than their target last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Iran, Angola and Venezuela were the biggest quota-busters. Iraq is the only OPEC member that does not have production limits.

"Everybody should adhere to his production allocation," OPEC's Mr. Badri said. There are "positive signs" that oil demand will pick up in 2010, he added.

OPEC will meet next in Luanda, Angola, on Dec. 22, and again in Vienna on March 17 next year, the group said.

First published on September 10, 2009 at 12:00 am
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