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Bernanke's renomination praised
Wednesday, August 26, 2009

President Barack Obama's renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to another four-year term rewards a man who gets high marks for managing the nation's worst economic calamity since the Great Depression and provides the stability needed to resolve financial problems, economists and investment managers said yesterday.

Mr. Obama took a break from his Martha's Vineyard vacation to announce his support for Mr. Bernanke, 55, whose current term expires Jan. 31.

Argus Research economist Richard Yamarone said Mr. Bernanke's leadership during the financial crisis that accelerated last September is reason enough to keep him at the helm of the Fed. The central bank combatted the credit crisis and recession by lowering interest rates to historically low levels and providing liquidity to constricted credit markets through its plans to purchase more than $1.7 million in mortgage-backed and other securities.

"Just on these merits alone, he should be reappointed," Mr. Yamarone said. "This could have easily gone a lot worse."

The Fed's low-interest rate policy indicates Mr. Bernanke's commitment to fighting the recession, said Thomas J. Duesterberg, president and CEO of the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a public policy and economics research group in Arlington, Va.

"I think he's done a good job so far. I expect him to remain a strong voice for economic rationality," Mr. Duesterberg said.

Mr. Bernanke is not without his critics, many of whom fault him for execution rather than his game plan.

"He's done a great job given the hand he was dealt," said Malcolm Polley, chief investment officer of Stewart Capital Advisors, a unit of Indiana, Pa.-based S&T Bancorp. "The real issue, toxic assets, hasn't been taken care of. That's the big problem."

Debilitated mortgages and derivative securities on the books of financial firms caused credit markets to lock up last fall. Some recommended transferring those securities to a so-called "bad bank" financed by the federal government. If that had been done, it would have freed up credit by improving the balance sheets of the financial institutions that shed the toxic assets.

The inevitable problem facing Mr. Bernanke is whether the Fed can steer the economy back to recovery without the economic stimulus measures triggering inflation. The Fed said Aug. 12 it "expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time" and that economic conditions likely will warrant low interest rates "for an extended period."

"There's a big unwinding we have to deal with. That's certainly not a task for an inexperienced, newbie Fed chairman," Mr. Yamarone said.

Federated Investors fixed income strategist Joseph M. Balestrino said two classic sources of inflation -- a tight labor market and high factory utilization -- are not problems. Credit markets are signalling faith that a Bernanke-led Fed will be able to engineer a low-inflation recovery, he said.

"The market's saying it's not worried about it," Mr. Balestrino said.

Mr. Polley agrees.

"I think [Mr. Bernanke] can do it as well as anybody else, primarily because he is a student of the Great Depression and understands the mistakes that were made," he said.

Still, it will be a difficult tightrope for the Fed to walk, he added.

"He may have to pull back on liquidity, tighten [credit] faster than he wants to, which has the potential to spook the market," Mr. Polley said.

Colin Symons, chief investment officer of Symons Capital Management in Mt. Lebanon, credits Mr. Bernanke with doing "exactly what he was expected to do in that situation and he did it well in that system."

The problem, Mr. Symons said, is the system.

Mr. Symons said the Fed and other policymakers responded to a debt crisis that was caused in part by low interest by issuing more debt and keeping interest rates low. That's comparable to giving a drunk with a hangover another drink, he said.

"It will make him feel better, but is it really going to cure him?" Mr. Symons asked.

He believes the Fed's and federal government's response have improved economic conditions in the short term but have created huge problems down the road. One of those issues -- federal budget deficits -- grew larger this week.

Both the White House and the Congressional Budget Office predicted the budget deficit this year would swell to nearly $1.6 trillion.

"There's a limit to how far you can kick the can down the road," Mr. Symons said. "We may have made the short term convenient, but we're going to pay for it in the long term."

Len Boselovic can be reached at lboselovic@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1941.
First published on August 26, 2009 at 12:00 am