Erie County native Dave Lefebre, who over the years has won more than $1 million at fishing tournaments, expects a strong bass bite at this week's Forrest Wood Cup tournament on Pittsburgh's rivers.

Darl Black, a fishing journalist, guide and resident of Cochranton, Crawford County, predicts the cup winner will catch bigger fish than Kevin VanDam did when he won the 2005 Bassmaster Classic in Pittsburgh with a record low, three-day weigh-in of 11 bass totaling just under 13 pounds.

And Charlie Evans, president and chief executive officer of tournament sponsor FLW Outdoors, said the 77 pro anglers who will gather Thursday morning near the Point to start four days of tossing buzzbaits, spinnerbaits and crankbaits at $2 million in prizes will produce "big catches" that will dwarf the fish sticks caught at the Bassmaster.

A fisherman without optimism is just a guy throwing junk in the water to see the splash, so you can't blame those guys for believing.

But none of them has talked to Rick Lorson, area fisheries manager for the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission. He would tell them they had better not count the smallmouth until the fish are in the live wells of all those Ranger boats that will be zooming up and down the region's rivers.

That's because the commission's latest fish survey on the rivers shows that bass meeting or exceeding the legal-catch length of 12 inches may be few and far between this year.

"Indications are it could be very tough to catch big bass this year, there's no sugar-coating it," said Mr. Lorson. "Our surveys show the numbers of legal-sized bass, 12 inches long or longer, in the rivers are down, and that's just attributable to the natural fluctuations in the rivers' fisheries."

The problem isn't water quality. The Allegheny, Monongahela and Ohio rivers around Pittsburgh are clean enough these days to support 40 species of fish. That's a far cry from 50 years ago, when pollution-tolerant carp and bullhead catfish were the only species capable of surviving in rivers choked with industrial waste and awash in acid mine drainage and raw, untreated sewage.

High levels of dissolved pollutants from mine drainage, gas well drilling, agricultural runoff and sewage treatment plants in the Monongahela River last winter had no lasting effect on fish populations. Neither did a gasoline spill in November on Turtle Creek, a Mon tributary.

Cleaner rivers coupled with civic pride attracted the Bassmaster Classic four years ago and now, the world's richest fishing competition, the Forrest Wood Cup.

The event is named for the founder of Ranger Boats, a tournament sponsor responsible for making about half of all bass boats sold in the United States. Organizers, government officials, hotel operators, restaurants and business owners hope it will draw 60,000 to 100,000 visitors to the region.

Whether the fish will cooperate is the big question.

Despite the cleaner rivers, surveys by the Fish and Boat Commission last fall and this spring found significantly lower populations of bass than it found in 2005 at sampling locations near Freeport on the Allegheny River, and near Braddock on the Monongahela River.

Sampling is done by sending electric shocks through sections of the river and counting the fish that float to the surface. The process stuns fish temporarily, allowing them to be identified, counted and measured before they soon recover and swim away.

According to Mr. Lorson, the sampling turned up an average of 1.2 bass per hour that met the minimum keeper size of 12 inches long in the Allegheny River at Freeport. Sampling at that location from 2002 through 2005 turned up an average of 2.5 fish per hour of that size.

Sampling in the Mon River near Braddock this spring turned up 6.6 legal-sized bass per hour. That's still down from the 2002-2005 average of more than 10 legal bass an hour.

Mr. Lorson said the sampling results indicate that 1999 was a "strong year class" in which many fish spawned, but 1998 and 2000 were "poor year classes" in which fewer fish were born. Those fish are now reaching legal size.

"What we take from all of this is that, based on our survey, the numbers of legal-sized bass in the rivers are below average right now," he said. "However, the lower-density bass populations could be offset by better fishing conditions."

That comes from the man who, prior to the Bassmaster Classic in 2005, said the number of bass and big bass in the rivers was high. He predicted good fishing for the tournament, only to have that forecast sabotaged by the worst fishing conditions in years -- hot, muggy temperatures and low river flows.

The good rainfall amounts that hit the watersheds in May and June this year tapered off in the first half of July, creating stable flows without flooding or cloudy, high water conditions, Mr. Lorson said. Despite recent rainstorms, river levels continue to be good, with the Allegheny River flowing higher than normal for this time of year and the Monongahela River flowing slightly lower than normal but still significantly stronger than in 2005, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

And cooler-than-normal temperatures this summer have kept water temperatures lower, in the 74- to 77-degree range preferred by bass, compared with temperatures of up to 85 degrees that made fish lethargic for the Bassmaster Classic.

"So we're not concerned at all about the amount of water or the water temperatures this year," said Werner Loehlein, chief of water management in the Corps' Pittsburgh office. "That will make things a bit different out on the rivers."

And that could translate into a good or even great bass bite for the tournament. Mr. Lorson concedes it's possible. Mr. Black, Mr. Lefebre and Mr. Evans are counting on it.

Mr. Black said the fish commission surveys could be accurate for the parts of the rivers where they were performed, but may not tell the whole story.

"River conditions are constantly changing, week to week and day to day," he said. "That can affect the survey findings and the fishing predictions based on them. More than lakes, the rivers are always a wild card."

Mr. Lefebre said support for predictions of a good fishing tournament can be found in the bigger catches registered on the rivers during several smaller bass tournaments, as well as the fish caught by other FLW pros who came in earlier this summer to practice.

"I will guarantee you the weights will go up. The weather and water conditions will be better than at the Bassmasters in 2005 and that will be controlling," said Mr. Lefebre, a native of Union City who often fished the rivers around Pittsburgh early in his professional angling career but not at all in the last 10 years.

He said he plans to cover a lot of river during the tournament, especially on his "old stomping grounds" up the Monongahela River. The locks will present a challenge on the Allegheny River, where four locks are in play, he said, but the Corps of Engineers will give priority to tournament anglers to lock through. And FLW anglers fish more often on rivers and are familiar with their challenges.

"The guys on the FLW tour are more adapted to this kind of river fishing tournaments than those on the Bassmaster tour," Mr. Lefebre said. "We fish lots of places that are tougher, like Pittsburgh, so we'll be ready."

Lee Murray, owner of Lock 3 Bait & Tackle in Cheswick and one of the top bass fishermen in the area, said fishing has been good this summer. He expects fishermen will need to catch 12 pounds, based on the daily limit of five fish, after the first two days of fishing to make the cut for the final two days. And he wouldn't be surprised to see someone weigh in with a 10-, 11- or 12-pound day.

"Hitting has been a bit off lately but there's no doubt about it. Fishing on the rivers is way better than it was for the Bassmasters," Mr. Murray said. "That tournament hit our rivers when they were in the worst shape ever."

FLW's Mr. Evans heads the world's largest fishing tournament organization, annually offering more than 90,000 anglers the chance to win more than $40 million in 230 tournaments targeting bass, walleye, redfish, kingfish and striped bass.

He said Pittsburgh's tough conditions didn't spook his group. Still, the fishermen will need to be ready for whatever the rivers throw at them.

"Will we set weigh-in records? No," he said. "This will be a tough tournament. But they play the British Open and the U.S. Open at tough courses with the tee boxes set back and the greens fast. Same with this fishing tournament. The fishermen will have to use all of their skills."

Despite the tough conditions, Mr. Evans said FLW Outdoors wanted to bring its signature tournament to Pittsburgh anyway because of the success of the Bassmaster Classic -- measured not by the size and weight of fish but the size and enthusiasm of the crowds that turned out along the rivers and bridges and at the Mellon Arena weigh-ins.

In the end, the number and size of the bass caught will matter less than the stringer full of headlines Pittsburgh expects to net from hosting the tournament, which is expected to pump more than $35 million into the local economy.