The turbocharged pace of the 2010 Senate race continued last week as Sen. Arlen Specter was front and center in coverage of the Sotomayor confirmation hearings, fresh developments on crucial labor legislation and the upsurge in sniping between his campaign and that of his most prominent Democratic rival, Rep. Joe Sestak.
The 2010 governor's race, which for months has projected a smaller blip on the state's political radar, also produced some public movement.
On the Republican side, Rep. Jim Gerlach finally made a formal declaration that he would seek the nomination. On the Democratic side, Auditor General Jack Wagner came to the brink of making similar news, offering almost identical statements on a Pittsburgh television show and in a Harrisburg forum that there was "no doubt" that he was running, even though he has yet to make a formal announcement.
For both candidates, there had been some doubt about their 2010 intentions, and last week's statements seemed calculated to quell them, placing would-be contributors and party endorsers on notice that they had moved beyond the testing-the-waters stage. The candidates perceived to be the front-runners in each party have yet to make their bids official. Neither Tom Corbett, the Republican attorney general, nor Dan Onorato, the Democratic county executive of Allegheny County, have been coy about their plans to enter the race, but neither seems to be under any pressure to move quickly to follow their rivals.
Political experts said that for Mr. Wagner and Mr. Gerlach, the early moves were bids to shake up perceptions of the races.
Mr. Gerlach, who represents a swing district in the Philadelphia suburbs, formed a fundraising committee for the governor's race late last year. But he held open the possibility of running for re-election and for a time failed to quash speculation that he might switch his sights to the Senate race.
Mr. Wagner had always said he was more interested in the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell but, like Mr. Gerlach, had also refused to rule out a Senate run. He eventually rejected the Senate possibility. More recently, doubts about his commitment to the governor's race had been stoked by the fact that his early fundraising lagged far behind that of Mr. Onorato.
His former Pittsburgh City Council colleague has banked more than $4 million for the race, while Mr. Wagner, who spent heavily on his re-election campaign last year, had only about $300,000 at the time of the most recent campaign finance reports. Mr. Wagner argues that his landslide re-election demonstrates his political credibility better than any fundraising number. Still, all those votes won't buy any television time, and political handicappers are drawn to the measure that will.
"One of the benchmarks for judging candidates and their likely performance, rightly or wrongly, is their ability to raise money," said Terry Madonna, a scholar of state politics who directs the Franklin & Marshall College poll. "Gerlach and Wagner both need to do some catching up."
"If you look at Gerlach and Wagner, they have to be considered legitimate challengers, but they are maybe a step or two behind the perceived front-runners," said Chris Borick, who directs Muhlenberg College's Institute of Public Opinion. "If they're going to emerge as real challengers, their fundraising has got to kick in in a gigantic way."
On the Democratic side, that need could be particularly acute because of the deep pockets of Tom Knox, a Philadelphia businessman who has signaled his willingness to spend double-digit millions of his own money on the nomination contest.
"There's a great Yiddish phrase for it -- 'toochis ofn tish' -- put your ass on the table," said Dr. Cyril H. Wecht, who includes former Allegheny County Democratic chairman and unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate among the many professional hats he has worn. "At some point you want to see who is really talking seriously."
Mr. Gerlach also has the challenge of distinguishing himself from another Eastern Pennsylvania candidate, Pat Meehan, a former U.S. attorney who initiated the probe that led to the high-profile prosecution of former state Sen. Vincent Fumo. Mr. Fumo was sentenced the same day that Mr. Gerlach made his bid for governor official.
The fluidity of the governor's race, compared to the more solidly formed field for the Senate, was underscored last week when Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel said that he was considering the race, a decision he said he would make by fall.
While there is still time for a surprise candidate or two to emerge, the outlines of the Senate race seem clearer. On the Republican side, former Rep. Pat Toomey appears to be the clear early favorite over conservative activist Peg Luksik. It's still nine months before the primary, but Mr. Specter and Mr. Sestak are already hammering each other as incessantly as if the contest were only weeks away.
Despite months of undisguised campaigning, Mr. Sestak has yet to formally announce his candidacy. He said last week that he expected to take that step within "a month, or a month plus," but the absence of a formal announcement has left little doubt about his plans.
In large part, that's because he has raised the significant sum of $4.3 million, far behind Mr. Specter's $7.5 million war chest, but more than enough for a down payment on credibility as a Senate candidate. State Rep. Bill Kortz, a Mon Valley Democrat, also is seeking the Democratic Senate nomination but at this point is a much less visible and less well-funded challenger than Mr. Sestak.
While Mr. Kortz and Mr. Specter have announced their candidacies, Mr. Sestak does not appear to be under any immediate pressure to follow suit.
"It's the perception not only with the public but with the inside-the-party world that Sestak [is perceived] as the default challenger to Specter," said Mr. Borick. "He kind of has that world to himself right now, so he can float along in this ethereal state for a little while. In the more crowded governor's field, no one plays that role as of yet."
