On this day next year, the NBA will launch the most lavish free-agent party in modern history. Red carpets will roll. Private jets will crisscross the continent. Obscene amounts of money will be promised. Franchise fates will be altered.

LeBron James will be the guest of honor, flanked, perhaps, by Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal, Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. It should be a glorious time for teams with cap space and superstars with good realtors.

The summer before the Summer of LeBron will not be quite so glorious.

A variety of factors -- including a poor economy, weak season-ticket sales, a declining salary cap and the LeBron sweepstakes itself -- could conspire to make this an unhappy offseason for most free agents.

Only four teams are expected to have significant salary-cap space, and not all are expected to use it. Most teams can spend their so-called midlevel exception -- about $5.6 million -- but most of them likely will not.

The salary cap is not expected to change much from last season's $58.7 million, but it could drop by 10 percent next season, by some estimates. The luxury-tax threshold could also fall, forcing teams to rein in spending now.

More than 100 players became free agents at midnight today. Negotiations have commenced, although no deals can be consummated until July 8, after the annual moratorium.

Teams had already been cutting back. Last week, the Milwaukee Bucks practically gave away Richard Jefferson, a high-scoring forward, in a trade with the San Antonio Spurs. The Bucks received a package of expiring contracts designed to reduce their payroll. Two days later, the Phoenix Suns traded O'Neal to Cleveland, and the Nets sent Vince Carter to Orlando, also for cap-friendly contracts.

The Bucks continued their payroll slashing on Monday when, in a surprise move, they declined to tender a qualifying offer to Charlie Villanueva, their promising young forward. The move made Villanueva an unrestricted free agent and likely ended his career in Milwaukee.

The Boston Celtics, who won the championship in 2008, had been offering their starting guards, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, in trade talks, in part because of financial considerations.

The only player guaranteed a maximum payout is the Los Angeles Lakers' Kobe Bryant, the most valuable player of the NBA Finals. Bryant has indicated he intends to opt out of his contract and sign a new multiyear deal with the Lakers.

All or nothing seems to be the formula for coaching the Detroit Pistons. Bring home an NBA championship or hit the road.

First-year coach Michael Curry became the latest Pistons coach to get the ax as president for basketball operations Joe Dumars fired him yesterday after watching his team stumble to a sub-.500 record and an embarrassing first-round exit from the playoffs.

Dumars fired Flip Saunders last season after he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals in each of his three seasons. Curry was an assistant under Saunders for one season.

In 2005, the Pistons parted ways with Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown after he helped them win a title and almost repeat in his two years with the team. And Rick Carlisle was fired after two years following a conference finals appearance in 2003 in his second season and NBA Coach of the Year honors in his first.

Center Mehmet Okur has decided to stay with Utah for the final year of his contract. Okur joins teammates Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver, who also had the option of skipping the final year of their contracts and becoming free agents. None of the three chose to test the market, keeping the Jazz lineup intact for a hefty price. Okur is due $9 million next season.

NBA free agency

• What: Period during which teams can sign other teams' free agents.

• When: Began at 12:01 a.m. today.

• Of note: Some of the bigger names available: Jason Kidd, Ron Artest, Allen Iverson, Ben Gordon and Hedo Turkoglu.