(NOTE: Freelance theater writer Gwen Orel will be backstage at the Tony Awards Sunday night, when she will blog at http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pgtheaternow.)

(ALSO: Click here for Chris Rawson's Tony picks).

If Gwen ran the world, this is who would win the Tony awards. But I include my predictions, too. If they coincide, I only list one.

(Pick and Predict) Best Play: God of Carnage, Yasmina Reza

It's sharp, clear, never wanders from its main point, never lets up, never stops being entertaining. My companion turned to me and said she couldn't remember when she'd laughed so much--neither could I. But I found its final moments chilling, too.

(Pick) Best Musical: Rock of Ages

It's a sweet boy-meets-girl story really, but done with wit and charm, its jukebox musical style intercuts popular songs and makes them fresh. Brilliant video as scenery and turning the house into a rock club, complete with eyelined-waiters serving drinks, is brilliant too.

(Predict): Billy Elliot, The Musical

(Pick) Book of a Musical: [Title of Show]

Its self-referentiality always includes the audience in the jokes; it has wit and heart and loads of fun. Sadly, it closed ages ago, and nobody will remember it now.

Predict: Billy Elliot, The Musical

(Pick) Original Score: 9 to 5: the Musical

Mostly because I liked the others less, but I did like some of Dolly Parton's new tunes, particularly "Backwoods Barbie" and "Let Love Grow."

Predict: Billy Elliot, The Musical

(Pick) Revival of a Play: Joe Turner's Come and Gone

It's a piece of Americana, our homegrown playwright--the others are German (Mary Stuart), English (The Norman Conquests), Irish (Waiting for Godot). It's done very very well. And Obama went out of his way to see it.

Predict: The Norman Conquests. People just loved this rather shallow comic trilogy. It's hard to imagine a better revival of it, although it left me bored at the end of the day.

(Pick) Revival of a Musical: West Side Story

Though it isn't a perfect revival, it does show off the great bones of the original. Nothing like hearing the 28-piece orchestra, seeing great dancers strut their stuff and feeling how the musical works on the emotions like an opera.

Predict: Hair. Critics went nuts for it, and lots of other people too, though it all felt a little ersatz to me.

(Pick) Leading Actor in a Play: Raul Esparza, Speed-the-Plow

He blew comically endearing Jeremy Piven off the stage in Mamet's three-hander. Some people even think this is why Piven claimed to have mercury poisoning and left the show early.

Predict: Geoffrey Rush, Exist the King. He is physically hysterical and very creative in the role, but the existential drama outstays its welcome by a good hour.

(Pick) Leading actress in a Play: Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage

In a cast of outstanding actors, she ran away with the show. Every gesture and line truthful, funny, fresh.

Predict: Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart. She did very well in a flashy, sympathetic role, and Tony voters are anglophiles.

(Pick) Leading Actor in a Musical: Constantine Maroulis, Rock of Ages

He made a metal-head wanna-be sympathetic, and he sure can sing.

Predict: Gavin Creel, Hair.

(Pick and Predict) Leading Actress in a Musical: Allison Janney, 9 to 5

She brought cool but charismatic dignity to the character, kept all eyes on her, always, and her sly humor had shades of Lauren Bacall

(Pick and Predict) Featured Actor in a Play: Roger Robinson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Really, not a hometown bias. He brought such heart, truthfulness, generosity and charisma to what could be played over the top folksy as Bynum the healer. He brought out the awe in the ritual and functioned as the play's emotional center. Also, to be honest, none of the other nominations have much emotional wallop--33 Variations has already closed, so too bad for Zach Grenier, John Glover's role in Waiting for Godot is important but small, and the Norman Conquests works more as ensemble than star-maker.

(Pick) Featured Actress in a Play: Marin Ireland, Reasons to Be Pretty

This rising star never hits a false note; her combination of rage, vulnerability and humor is something special; she's beautiful but plausibly insecure, and perfectly cast in a role with many nuances.

(Predict) Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit. Lansbury was truly terrific, too, but this does not startle nor surprise, and her energy does flag a bit in Act II. But, she's an octogenerian who has given us many many years of pleasure. I'm not unhappy with this choice.

(Pick) Featured Actor in a Musical: Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical

As Lord Farqhuad, he spends almost the entire show on his knees with prosthetic "short legs," he's adept, comic and unflagging in his humor.

(Predict) Will Swenson, Hair

(Pick and Predict) Featured Actress in a Musical: Karen Olivo, West Side Story

She's dynamite, sizzling and still vulnerable, a gorgeous Maria with youthful energy, charisma and a powerhouse voice.

(Pick) Direction of a Play: Matthew Warchus, God of Carnage

To direct four actors this strong in such a tight piece takes focus, power and originality.

(Predict) Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests. Flashier accomplishment, but an easier task in the long run. If you can do physical comedy, you can do it. Warchus has great timing, but God of Carnage is harder.

(Pick) Direction of a Musical: Kristin Hanggi, Rock of Ages

She understood how to bring out the charm in the kitschy show without ever letting the nostalgia drown the story; she kept the balance of sound and light and acting and made it all theatrical

(Predict) Stephen Daldry, Billy Eliot, The Musical

(Pick) Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to5: the Musical

He was creative with kick lines and made the best use of actors who were more "movers" than dancers, always inventive in steps and gesture

(Predict) Peter Darling, Billy Eliot, The Musical. Choreography was good in this show about dance but at times did not really support the characterization (Billy is doing fouettes by the end of Act 1, really?)

(Pick and Predict) Scenic Design of a Play: Derek McLane, 33 Variations

His panels of sheet music were flexible, thematic without being intrusive, and the set worked perfectly with the projections of Beethoven's sketchbooks

(Pick and Predict) Scenic Design of a Musical: Mark Wendland, Next to Normal

His three-story set with sliding panels and pixelled- images had flexibility, originality and appeal, and also supported the show's rock-music Lifetime-movie genre.

(Pick and Predict) Costume Design of a Play: Anthony Ward, Mary Stuart

The simple choice of putting the Queens in period costume and the courtiers in suits told the story as well as any acting or directing, and the costumes themselves were elegant and rich.

(Pick) Costume Design of a Musical: Gregory Gale, Rock of Ages

Gale told the story of the 80s rock wannabes in his costumes, keeping it theatrical without ever going too over the top.

(Predict): Michael McDonald, Hair. Yes the costumes were nice, but they really looked like everyone was going to a 1960s theme park. These, in my view, were nostalgia over the top.

(Pick and Predict) Lighting Design of a Play: David Lander, 33 Variations

There isn't a separate way to distinguish projections, and these projections of music were outstanding without overwhelming the story.

(Pick) Lighting Design of a Musical: You know? None of them seemed to do anything very wonderful or very terrible to me. If I had to choose one, I'd just vote for the show I liked best, which is what I'm sure Tony voters will also do, which means that I pick, of these choices, Howell Binkley, West Side Story

(Predict) Kevin Adams, Hair

(Pick) Sound Design of a Play: Scott Lehrer and Leon Rothenberg, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

The touches of music and rhythm supported the play without prodding it jarringly, adding to the atmosphere rather than recreating it

(Predict): Russell Goldsmith, Exit the King. Because: there are echoes, and marches, and various sound effects that support Ionesco's existential world, so Tony voters will know there is a sound design going on.

(Pick) Sound Design of a Musical: Peter Hylenski, Rock of Ages

It's got to be very difficult to make all of the different rock songs sound right together and balance the volume on the speakers without overblasting the audience.

(Predict) Acme Sound Partners, Hair

(Not included: Best Special Theatrical Event, Best Orchestrations)