"Plays, glorious plays! ... tragedy tomorrow, comedy tonight!" -- so might sing some improbable combination of Oliver ("Oliver!") and Pseudolus ("A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum"). Even these heroes of award-winning musicals would acknowledge that the genius of this past Broadway season has been in plays, not musicals, where Broadway normally invests greater energy and fortune.

For proof, just look where the stars gathered: James Gandolfini, Geoffrey Rush, Jane Fonda, Marcia Gay Harden, Jeff Daniels and Angela Lansbury are all nominated for acting in plays -- not to mention Nathan Lane, Susan Sarandon, David Hyde Pierce, Kristin Scott Thomas, John Lithgow, Jeremy Irons, Frank Langella, Joan Allen, Matthew Broderick and Dianne Wiest, all of whom starred in plays but couldn't squeeze into the crowded field of nominations.

Those of equal note nominated for their work in musicals are pretty much limited to Stockard Channing and Allison Janney. Of course, there are always fewer TV and movie stars in musicals because musicals require a larger skill set. There, the stars tend to be Broadway names such as nominees Sutton Foster, Brian d'Arcy James and Alice Ripley.

There were also more plays this year than musicals -- 23 to 14 (counting both new and revivals). But that's my point.

Rejoice in the flood of plays though I do, however, it doesn't make it any easier to predict the winners we'll hear at 8 p.m. Sunday when the 63rd Tony Awards are announced on CBS.

(NOTE: Click here for Gwen Orel's Tony picks.)

And I can't claim any real expertise, because I'm only semi-informed, literally: of the 27 Tony-eligible plays and musicals, I saw just 13 (48 percent), and of the 116 nominations, just 62 (54 percent). That's enough to have personal favorites but not enough to know the whole field. I'd make a better prognosticator if I'd seen more -- or fewer, in which case I could handicap the gossip.

But here's what I think will win, and as you can see, it's going to be a banner night for "Billy Elliot."

(For another point of view, check the preferences and predictions of freelance theater writer Gwen Orel, who will blog from the Tonys Sunday night for the Post-Gazette. Her story is just beneath this one on the A&E and Theater pages.)

Play: Horton Foote, "Dividing the Estate." It really is a better play than Yasmina Reza's "God of Carnage." Of course, I have the advantage of having seen Reza's twice, in London and New York. Those who have seen it just in New York are still dazzled by its undoubted smarts.

Musical: "Billy Elliot, The Musical." A lock. Sure thing. No doubt about it.

Book of a Musical: "Billy Elliot." Stands to reason.

Original Score: "Billy Elliot." Maybe not having seen a couple of the other musicals hurts me here, but I feel a sweep coming on. (Or is that just leftover from the Pirates treatment of the Mets?)

Revival of a Play: "The Norman Conquests." Three plays beat "Joe Turner's" one.

Revival of a Musical: "Hair."

Special Theatrical Event: Liza, I suppose, but who cares about this category?

Leading Actor in a Play: Geoffrey Rush, "Exit the King." It's a tour de force.

Leading Actress in a Play: Janet McTeer, "Mary Stuart." Doomed royalty? Of course!

Leading Actor in a Musical: The three Billy Elliots.

Leading Actress in a Musical: Alice Ripley, "Next to Normal."

Featured Actor in a Play: Roger Robinson, "Joe Turner's Come and Gone." He's the best thing in a great play. (And it's really a lead, which can't hurt.)

Featured Actress in a Play: Angela Lansbury, "Blithe Spirit." Memory Lane.

Featured Actor in a Musical: Any one of the five could win. I'll say Gregory Jbara, "Billy Elliot," although I'd prefer Christopher Sieber, who is very funny in "Shrek the Musical."

Featured Actress in a Musical: Karen Olivo, "West Side Story." She has all the sexy snap crackle pop that the revival on the whole lacks.

Scenic Design of a Play: Derek McLane, "33 Variations."

Scenic Design of a Musical: Ian MacNeil, "Billy Elliot." Epic and intimate, both.

Costume Design of a Play: Anthony Ward, "Mary Stuart."

Costume Design of a Musical: Tim Hatley, "Shrek the Musical." Full of good jokes.

Lighting Design of a Play: David Lander, "33 Variations." (Since publishing this, I've learned David Lander is a Pittsburgher.)

Lighting Design of a Musical: Rick Fisher, "Billy Elliot." As the man said, both epic and intimate.

Sound Design of a Play: Russell Goldsmith, "Exit the King."

Sound Design of a Musical: Paul Arditti, "Billy Elliot."

Direction of a Play: Matthew Warchus, "The Norman Conquests." Although Warchus shows similar skills in "Carnage," three plays do beat one. And Bartlett Sher remains a controversial choice for "Joe Turner."

Direction of a Musical: Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot." Duh.

Choreography: Peter Darling, "Billy Elliot." The show's being about dance gives it an edge.

Orchestrations: Martin Koch, "Billy Elliot." Frankly, this is just a wild guess.