The Penguins might feel differently if they had been outshot during the first two games of their second-round playoff series against Washington. Or either of them, for that matter.

If they had been unable to protect a multiple-goal lead. If they had been overwhelmed by the Capitals while playing five-on-five. Or on special teams. Or both.

Didn't happen, though, which explains why the Penguins enter Game 3 at 7:08 p.m. today at Mellon Arena with a confidence that defies the chilling realities inherent in facing a 2-0 deficit in any best-of-seven.

"We feel like we're right there," left winger Matt Cooke said. "Even though we're down two, we're in a situation where we very easily could have won both games. The best thing about that is, we know we can be better."

Actually, simply knowing it isn't enough anymore. The Penguins have to prove it, because they are facing what amounts to a 60-minute season.

Lose Game 3, and history makes it clear that the only mystery will be whether Washington celebrates earning a berth in the Eastern Conference final here or in its home rink. Fall behind, 3-0, in the series, and the Penguins will be reduced to props in the Capitals' highlights video.

While beating a team with Washington's pedigree four times in five games is a daunting challenge, precedent proves it can be done. The Penguins have rallied from a 2-0 deficit three times in franchise history, twice against previous incarnations of the Capitals.

"It's a tough situation, and everybody realizes that it's not going to be easy," Penguins defenseman Sergei Gonchar said. "But, at the same time, we still think we can do it."

Forcing Washington to cope with a deficit larger than one goal likely would help. Although the Penguins scored first in Games 1 and 2, they never managed to go up by two despite having numerous opportunities in both.

"We've had chances to get two-goal leads and go up, and yet we've let them back in the game," coach Dan Bylsma said.

Some of the credit for that belongs to Capitals rookie goalie Simeon Varlamov, who has stopped 67 of 72 shots.

It's a little too early to suggest that he has morphed from a question mark into an exclamation point for Washington, but Varlamov hasn't given Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau any reason to tell veteran Jose Theodore to start warming up in the bullpen, either.

"He's played great," Penguins right winger Bill Guerin said. "He's playing beyond his years and beyond his experience.

"Hey, it doesn't matter how old you are or how many games you've played. If you're playing well, you're playing well."

Varlamov clearly is, but Sidney Crosby has given the Penguins a pretty good template for getting pucks past him.

Crosby has scored four of their five goals in this series, and the combined length of those four doesn't approach the distance covered by a single Alex Ovechkin blast from the top of the faceoff circle.

"You see where [Crosby] is scoring his goals," Guerin said. "They're all within 2 feet of the net. He goes to the hard places to score his goals."

Crosby's exceptional hand-eye coordination has contributed to several of those goals, and most of his teammates can't match that. However, they can venture into the same high-traffic areas where he has been spending so much quality time.

"We're getting goals in a certain area," Bylsma said. "And that's where we should be going to get them."

Doing that regularly is a priority for the Penguins. So is figuring out how to disrupt the Capitals' furious surge into the offensive end and getting more consistent production from their own power play.

The Penguins, for the most part, did not perform poorly in the first two games --"We've played some pretty good hockey, I think," center Jordan Staal said -- but neither did they play as well as they're capable.

As well as they must to defeat a quality opponent like the Capitals. As well as they expect to, beginning tonight.

"If we come back [tonight], it's 2-1," defenseman Hal Gill said. "And we go from there."

And if they don't, they can just get ready to go home.