A new Quinnipiac survey confirms that Sen. Arlen Specter made the right move in migrating to the Democratic Party.

The survey, taken over the weekend, found that while former Rep. Pat Toomey would have been a heavy favorite to wrest the GOP nomination from the five-term incumbent, Mr. Specter would clobber his challenger in a general election if it were held today. But the poll also found that Mr. Specter would have a significantly tougher time if former Gov. Tom Ridge were to be the Republican nominee.

Mr. Ridge has not publicly expressed an interest in the race, but several reports have asserted that he is considering the possibility of a bid to return to Congress after his years as governor and secretary of Homeland Security. He did not respond to requests for comment.

A separate survey by Harrisburg firm Susquehanna Polling and Research also found a near dead heat between Mr. Ridge and Mr. Specter. It showed the incumbent defeating Mr. Toomey in a general election as well, but by a significantly narrower margin, 42 percent to 36 percent.

In an election where Democratic and independent support trumped Republican opposition, Mr. Specter would easily outdistance Mr. Toomey, the Quinnipiac survey showed. His total margin of 53-33 percent rests on overwhelming support among Democrats and a significant advantage among independents as well -- the breakdowns were 85 percent to 4 percent among Democrats; and 45 percent to 36 percent among independents, while Republicans would back Mr. Toomey, 45 percent to 36 percent.

That hypothetical matchup also suggested a considerable gender gap in the electorate. Men supported Mr. Specter by the relatively narrow margin of 47 percent to 41 percent, while women favored him in a landslide, 59 percent to 26 percent.

In a trial run against Mr. Ridge, however, the senator held a much narrower advantage overall, 46 percent to 43 percent, just a fraction outside the poll's margin of error. Mr. Specter was again favored by an overwhelming number of Democrats, but independents swung into the Ridge column, favoring the former governor by 47 percent to 37 percent.

In both matchups, Mr. Specter was strongly favored by voters from union households, suggesting that while labor leaders are irate with Mr. Specter over his stand against legislation to make union organizing easier, he has not paid any appreciable price with the rank-and-file. Union households favored Mr. Specter over Mr. Toomey by 62 percent to 27 percent, and over Mr. Ridge by a margin of 57 percent to 34 percent.

In announcing his party conversion, Mr. Specter said he would still oppose the labor movement's key legislative priority, the Employee Free Choice Act. When asked whether that stand made them more or less likely to vote for the Philadelphian, the results were almost identical between the total sample and voters from union households. Among all voters, 23 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Mr. Specter while 60 percent said it made no difference. Among Democrats, it was less likely, 27 percent, and no difference, 57 percent.

Peg Luksik, a conservative activist from Johnstown, is also running for the GOP nomination in the 2010 primary, but the survey did not include her name in any of its trial heats. The poll, based on interviews with 1,120 voters, had a margin of error of 2.9 percent. It did not test another key hypothetical question -- how he might fare in a Democratic primary. While a variety of Democratic Party leaders, including President Barack Obama, have declared their support for him, several Pennsylvania Democrats are still considering the race: Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Delaware County; Pittsburgh Controller Michael Lamb; Joe Torsella, the former president of the National Constitution Center; and Rep. Bill Kortz, D-West Mifflin.