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Investors are feeling bullish
Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Wall Street's bulls yesterday won again in a romp, extending a two-month winning streak over its unrepentant bears, who vow investors haven't heard the last from them.

Yesterday's 3 percent rise in the S&P 500 leaves the broad market index at 907.24, 34 percent higher than it closed at on March 9, its low so far this year. The Nasdaq index, which represents smaller companies, has done even better over the same stretch, rising 39 percent after finishing yesterday at 1,763.56, up 44.36. The Dow Jones Industrials are up 29 percent, closing yesterday at 8,426.74, up 214.33.

Investment managers said the advance, led by the financial stocks that were clobbered the most last fall as the credit crisis unfolded, reflects a growing consensus that the economy may have bottomed and that the banking industry won't collapse.

"Two months ago, there was a significant level of fear we were going into a depression. I think we've taken that scenario off the table," said John Frankola of Vista Investment Management in Pittsburgh.

Short-term, the feat of dodging a depression hasn't provoked raging bulls or chased bears into hibernation. Many economists aren't expecting a strong and swift economic recovery. They say although economic indicators are showing signs of stabilizing, there are still significant risks. Sooner or later, the stock market will reflect that, said Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors, a unit of Indiana, Pa.-based S&T Bancorp.

"We think it's gone way too far, way too fast," said Mr. Polley, who anticipates that some piece of bearish news will put the market into reverse.

He said it could come as early as Thursday, when the Obama administration reveals how Citigroup, Bank of America and other ailing financial institutions scored on a so-called "stress test" designed to measure how much additional capital they need.

Banks are causing less stress for investors these days. Having been battered following the shotgun sale of investment banker Bear Stearns in March 2008 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September, financial stocks have been the star performers in the market's reversal.

"Many people would refer to it as a junk rally," said Geoffrey Gerber of Twin Capital Management in McMurray.

Mr. Gerber said tech stocks, the biggest casualty of the first bear market of this decade, led the recovery in March 2003, so it is not surprising financials have done so well in recent weeks.

"The relevant question now is: Will this market branch out?" he said. "From a sustainability standpoint, this will have to broaden out if it's going to continue."

Mr. Gerber also believes there are plenty of good reasons for investors to remain cautious.

"There are a lot of question marks about earnings," he said. "There still could be some negative surprises."

Greg Melvin of C.S. McKee, Downtown, offered a simpler explanation for the market's recent reversal of fortunes.

"People panicked out, now they're just panicking back in," he said. "It's a realization that the whole economy isn't going to collapse."

Mr. Frankola takes heart from the fact that the market's recent rise began within days of March 2, when the Dow Jones first closed at a 12-year low. He said that according to JPMorgan Chase, the market has surrendered 12 years worth of gains only twice before, in April 1932 and December 1974. Both of those times marked bear market lows, and Mr. Frankola is optimistic the same will hold true with this bear.

Neither of those bear markets ended with a sharp move up and Mr. Frankola isn't expecting one this time either. That would be good news for long-term investors, giving them a longer term window to invest, he said.

Len Boselovic can be reached at lboselovic@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1941.
First published on May 5, 2009 at 12:00 am