Denise Murphy, who's sending triplets off to college this fall, figured she had cleared a hurdle when they were accepted to schools such as West Virginia University, Indiana University of Pennsylvania and St. Vincent College.

But then she did the math: Even with financial aid offers from those schools, all three can't afford to go.

The three West Mifflin Area High School seniors each would have to borrow at least $5,500 their first year.

Even then, to plug gaps not covered by loans or grants, Ms. Murphy, a single mother from West Mifflin, would need to take out a loan equal to a third of her salary of just under $30,000 as an outpatient lab worker at UPMC.

Leery of such a big debt, she's reluctantly trying to persuade two of the triplets that -- for the good of the family -- they should forgo their dream of enrolling in a four-year school and go to community college.

"I call it the college wars. We end up fighting," she said. "I can understand them feeling slighted. I always tried to treat them equally since the day they were born. But I never thought it would be this difficult.

"They're angry and they're hurt," she said. "And I'm scared."

Sending three kids to campus at once is no doubt an extreme form of college angst. But this month plenty of others are facing their own hard choices.

Amid the worst economy in decades, many high school seniors and their parents are caught between the college they always hoped for and the one they can afford. Worried about the recession and increasingly averse to big loans, some with private college acceptance letters are gravitating instead toward public campuses, while others are forgoing dorm life to commute from home or attend community college.

Along with the usual calculation of what they can afford, some families this year must factor in steep declines in their savings, a job loss or both. Trying to predict how those families will respond is producing extreme unease among college admission officers, who will learn in these next few weeks what share of the students they have admitted for the fall will choose to enroll.

Many public colleges with their lower prices could be in for a bumper year, including Pennsylvania's 14 state-owned universities, which are reporting application increases as large as 15 percent and 20 percent over last year. The 14 schools, which include California, Clarion, Edinboro, Indiana and Slippery Rock universities in Western Pennsylvania, have the lowest public university tuition rate in the state, at $5,358 a year.

At California, where applications are 8 percent above last year's record volume, the price issue has emerged as one more potent tool to sway parents fearful of debt.

"They want to be sure wherever they enroll they're getting value for their dollar," said William Edmonds, dean of admissions.

Likewise, the University of Pittsburgh says the 21,000-plus applications it has so far is above last year's mark, as are the applicants' qualifications. Even so, said Betsy Porter, director of admissions and financial aid, it's too soon to know how Pitt will fare.

For private colleges, the enrollment picture is far less clear.

Though Ivy League schools and many other elite campuses, Carnegie Mellon University among them, have seen no slackening of interest, other schools with high sticker prices and less cachet could struggle to hit enrollment targets, experts said.

"It may have nothing to do with quality but rather reputational attributes," said Philip R. Day, president of the Washington, D.C.-based National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. "People are going to be questioning what they're getting in return for their investment."

Some private colleges have been admitting more students as a hedge and notifying them sooner, hoping for an advantage over competitors. They are scraping together more financial aid so they can provide the kind of deep tuition discounts that will keep top prospects from defecting.

"I've seen a lot of extra effort being made to assure students that money is still available," said Kelly Frank, director of collegiate affairs at Quaker Valley High School. "The verdict is still out as to whether the money will be there that families are expecting."

She said even big name schools like Northwestern University, Tufts University and New York University jumped the gun on the traditional April 1 notification deadline, sending acceptance letters out weeks earlier.

At North Hills High School, where 90 percent of graduating seniors go on to college, a shift to public campuses seems apparent, said David Barkovich, a counselor and coordinator of its career resource center.

Last year, 45 percent of graduating seniors surveyed were bound for public four-year campuses.

"I wouldn't doubt it if we creep over 50 percent to even 55 percent this year," he said.

One local student shifting plans to a public campus is Jarret Criss, 19, a West Mifflin Area High School senior, who hoped to study political science at Washington & Jefferson College.

He said W&J accepted him but offered a $7,500 scholarship, which he felt would leave him with too much loan debt, even with whatever need-based aid he might qualify for upon completing the FAFSA -- Free Application for Federal Student Aid -- form. The college says its tuition, fees, room and board for 2009-2010 total $41,820, and on average, students get approximately $20,000 in financial aid.

Mr. Criss now plans to enroll at Slippery Rock.

"It's cheaper," he said.

Others are eyeing private campuses more closely after getting unexpectedly large aid offers, among them Susie Jurewicz, of Ross, whose daughter, Kaitlyn, was accepted to Dickinson College.

Total charges there are $50,194, but Dickinson cobbled together enough aid for Kaitlyn, a North Hills High School senior, to lower the price to approximately $14,000, without loans.

"Their whole attitude was great," her mother said.

Dickinson is now among the schools being seriously considered by her daughter, who has a 3.95 grade average and is a pre-professional student at the Pittsburgh Ballet Theatre School. She said her daughter's offer was more attractive even than one from Pitt, which her daughter applied to as a safety school.

At Carnegie Mellon, more students admitted through binding early decision is giving the school a slightly larger base to start with over last year, said Mike Steidel, director of admission. He estimates the university, with 1,450 freshmen slots, is admitting 6,500 or 29 percent of its applicants -- down slightly from 30 percent last year.

"You could talk to me in two weeks and I might have a completely different song to sing, but right now we think we've done our best," he said.

That said, Carnegie Mellon, need blind in its admissions, cannot completely eliminate loans for students as some better endowed competitors do.

Some analysts wonder if colleges with strained financial aid budgets will be more inclined this year to admit wealthier students who need no aid, rather than those who do. In recent decades, they say, students needy enough to receive federal Pell grants have been declining in number at many top four-year schools.

On the one hand, the federal government's intent to boost the maximum Pell Award the next couple years will help those students, said Thomas Mortenson, senior scholar at the Washington, D.C.-based Pell Institute. But, he added, as states cut campus support, "Tuitions keep rising."

What worries Jennifer Shields, senior guidance counselor at West Mifflin Area High, is the heavy presence of loans in financial aid packages she's seen thus far. For some of her school's needier students, even a dollar gap of $3,000 to $5,000 could keep them home.

Ms. Murphy and her 19-year-old triplets -- Jennifer, Kristi and Ron -- know that scenario well.

Both daughters are leaning toward IUP, and Ron would like to attend Slippery Rock.

Jennifer, a National Honor Society student who plays three instruments and has a grade average above 4.2, must enroll at a four-year school to major in voice, her mother said. So Kristi, who also is a National Honor student with a 3.65 grade average, and Ron, who has a 3.1 grade average and is senior class president, are being asked to sacrifice.

Kristi said she'll regret not having "the full experience" of college if she can't go away.

"It's upsetting because my friend is going to IUP, and we were going to room together," she said.

Her mother, who loses child support payments this year, said the aid awards were disappointing, especially since her family's estimated contribution was zero under FAFSA. A Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency grant might help, but only if it is substantially larger than estimates she's seen from the colleges. And the official award won't come until June -- a month past the May 1 deadline by which students typically declare enrollment plans.

In the meantime, the family has shelled out $600 in nonrefundable deposits to hold spaces at schools the students may never attend.

"I wish I had answers," their mother said.