Private colleges in Pennsylvania already face difficult finances and unpredictable enrollments as the recession cuts into both their own endowments and what families can afford.

Now leaders of the Association of Independent Colleges and Universities are speaking out about another potential threat: Gov. Ed Rendell's proposal to provide up to about $7,600 in tuition relief for incoming freshmen from families earning less than $100,000 a year at certain schools.

The financial aid, which would be paid for from revenues via the legalization of video poker in bars, would be available only at the 14 universities of State System of Higher Education -- including California, Clarion, Edinboro, Indiana and Slippery Rock -- and the state's 14 community colleges.

It would not be available at the four state-related universities -- the University of Pittsburgh and Penn State, Temple and Lincoln universities -- as well as the more than 90 private colleges and universities in the state and at out-of-state schools.

"There's a lot of anxiety in the private sector," said Don Francis, president of the Association of Independent Colleges and Universities of Pennsylvania.

He said the private colleges -- which have about 270,000 students -- already were expecting to have a difficult time enrolling their classes this fall because of the recession.

Now, the private college leaders fear, the financial aid may attract more students to the eligible state schools, which could make private college seats more difficult to fill, cause some private colleges to go out of business and reduce some of the 71,000 jobs now on private campuses.

"I'm concerned about an enrollment shift," said Mary Hines, president of Carlow University.

Mr. Francis, Dr. Hines and Thomas Kepple, president of Juniata College, talked about the issue with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board yesterday.

They said it would cost the state, parents and students more money in the long run if private colleges are excluded from the tuition relief.

They noted that students at private colleges are more likely to graduate in four years, thus saving additional costs. In the freshman class of 2001, 62 percent of those in private colleges graduated in four years while just 31 percent of those at State System schools did so, according to the association.

The published price -- sticker price -- of private colleges averages $25,049 in Pennsylvania, higher than that of public colleges, but the leaders argued that many, and in some cases nearly all, students don't pay the listed price.

The association said that federal, state and institutional grants bring the average net tuition and fees at private colleges in the state to $5,799 for students with financial need. Institutional grants given by the schools themselves alone average $11,900 for students with need. That does not include room and board.

Published tuition at all 14 State System schools is $5,358 this year; fees and room and board costs vary by school. Tuition varies at community colleges. Community College of Allegheny County this year charges $2,046 for a full-time student carrying 24 credits.

Students who have need at these public colleges and universities also are eligible for price reductions, including state and federal grants as well as more limited institutional aid.

One of the reasons Mr. Rendell selected the 28 colleges and universities was that he views the state as having more control over their tuition increases.

Mr. Francis said one reason those schools can keep their tuition down is they get more state money than the other schools.

In addition, Mr. Francis said, if tuition is kept too low, students won't have the services or classes they need to graduate on time.

The leaders also took the amount the state spends on legislative appropriations and financial aid grants through the Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency at each type of school and compared it to the number of degrees in 2006-07, saying it amounted to $21,691 per degree in the State System, $20,406 per degree in the state-related universities and $3,602 in the private colleges.

The leaders also said the tuition aid could crowd the eligible universities, resulting in the state spending more money on construction when the private schools already have capacity for the students.