
Product, product, product -- that's the mantra that has ruled the auto industry since time immemorial.
But today, it's more than a mantra. It's a key to survival for Detroit's Big Three auto makers. The product mix almost surely will determine which -- if any -- of the Big Three will thrive in the future.
No matter how much bailout money they get, U.S. automakers will not survive if they don't have the right products to sell. Cutting costs, closing dealersips and reducing payrolls won't bring buyers in the door. Miscalculate those product plans, and they're done.
Moreover, whatever they choose to do has to be good enough to please federal officials who must decide whether their plans and their companies are viable.
But as Detroit's automakers lay out plans for their survival, due with the federal government in a few weeks as a requirement they had to meet to receive the $17.4 billion "bailout" loans, their product plans are riskier than ever.
Will consumers be willing to pay higher prices for such lavishly equipped small cars as those on the drawing boards today? Will they go along with paying more for hybrid cars? Are they willing to take gambles in purchasing one of the all-new plug-in hybrid or electric cars coming out in a year or so?
Automakers also must somehow cope with the behavior of consumers who are so unpredictable they are turning their backs on the small cars they rushed to only months ago when gas prices spiked. In this business, timing is everything.
And perhaps most important, they must convince U.S. buyers that cars and trucks from the Big Three are better than ever, with quality that often beats foreign brands, according to many studies.
Here's what's coming from Detroit in the next few years:
Ford
Arguably Ford's most important pending introduction is its little Fiesta, a robust-looking, highly contemporary small car with lavish, even luxurious appointments. It's reportedly slated for a 2010 model year introduction.
Next will be an all-new Focus and, like the Fiesta, it's almost identical to its British Ford counterpart.
And Ford plans to bring out a new battery electric commercial van in 2010, a new battery electric small car in 2011 to be developed jointly with Magna International and "next-generation" hybrid vehicles, including a plug-in one by 2012.
"These new vehicles pave the way for additional applications in the future, using Ford's high-volume global small car and midsize car platforms," a Ford news release says.
Ford also is flexing its muscle in the big car field, with its all-new 2010 Taurus. It has strong styling influences from the much acclaimed Ford Interceptor show car of a few years ago, with the squarish taillights and a muscular rear end.
Lincoln
Lincoln, for its part, has an all-new MKT crossover that sports the "chamfer" character line, split waterfall heritage inspired grille and full-length taillights in the back -- hall-marks of Lincoln design.
Mercury
Although Ford has announced some new small Mercuries on the way from Europe, Ford still needs to be more definitive about the brand, particularly the models such as Milan, Mountaineer and Mariner that are made in North America. Thus far, Mercury is not scheduled to get its own version of the all-new 2010 Taurus.
The need to justify Mercury may heighten for Ford if it has to ask for a federal loan and thus come under scrutiny by a "car czar" if one is appointed, analysts say.
Ford has always said that production costs for Mercury, because they share so much with Ford, are very low, and it helps keep plant capacity at an acceptable level. They also say that Mercury buyers want upscale cars and are generally not interested in Ford.
General Motors
To some extent, GM's product plans are in play. A number of models that had been planned for the next couple of years have either been dropped, or pushed back for introduction, such as a long-awaited CTS coupe now set for unveiling in summer 2010.
Here's what's coming:
Chevy
Chevy is undeniably GM's powerhouse, and it's one of the hottest brands on the market, thanks to the Chevy Malibu, Chevy Traverse, the upcoming Chevy Camaro and a new, vastly upgraded Chevy Equinox that analysts expect to sell well.
But few cars are as eagerly anticipated as Chevy's new hybrid plug-in, the Volt, a four-door sedan that will be able to go 40 miles -- more than the average to-and-from-work commute for Americans -- solely on electric power, with a gasoline engine ready to go as backup for several hundred miles. The introduction is set for fall 2010.
Cadillac
This is another hot brand for GM. Thanks to billions of dollars in product development, and exciting designs such as the CTS and XLR, Cadillac now has a secure place in the luxury field, competing well with the best of the best from Europe.
The edgy new SRX luxury crossover is due this fall, along with the Cadillac CTS sport wagon. And the DTS and STS sedans will be replaced by a new car, analysts say. Rumors say a Cadillac smaller than the CTS is a good possibility.
Cadillac officials believe that in the "brave new world" ahead in the auto industry, there's really not too much that needs to be done to keep up and possibly surpass the competition.
But given the international proclivities of the people who run Cadillac and GM these days, it's reasonable to expect that Cadillac's lineup will continue to grow quickly as it competes on the world stage with BMW, Mercedes and Audi.
Buick
It surely came as a surprise to some when GM announced it would keep Buick as a core product in its portfolio.
But while Buicks don't sell especially well in the United States, except for the wildly popular Enclave crossover, Buick is a strong product in China and other parts of Asia.
In fact, Buick's newest product, the LaCrosse sedan, a sleek, Euro-designed upscale luxury sedan highlighted by a futuristic interior with soft blue lights in strategic places, was designed in China and other international locales.
Beyond the introduction of the LaCrosse for 2010, little is known about future Buick products. The company has many options. GM has a portfolio of interesting Buicks sold in China, and there are rumors that some of Ope's models may be brought here for sale by Buick.
Pontiac
GM's top executives say they want Pontiac to be the "Corvette" of the Buick-Pontiac-GMC truck group -- or at the very least, Pontiac will be the youth-oriented division of GM.
That all makes sense because Pontiac's always been perceived as being the sports or performance brand for GM. But to do this effectively, Pontiac will be losing a good number of models.
Although GM hasn't said which Pontiac cars will go under, the future "boutique" performance car business model for Pontiac suggests that the small crossover Vibe, the compact economy car G5 and the midsize crossover Torrent would bite the dust.
That leaves the Solstice roadster and all-new sports coupe, the G8 high-performance sport sedan and perhaps the G6 intermediate line in Pontiac's portfolio.
Saturn
GM's biggest decision will be what to do with its Saturn line. All options are on the table, including selling the brand to another company or perhaps even to its own well-regarded dealer network, closing the brand, continuing it under some less expensive, more efficient system, or just about anything else one might imagine, highly placed GM executives say.
Chrysler
Chrysler's future is less assured than either GM or Ford. Nearly all of its products, except for the Dodge Journey, Jeep Wrangler Unlimited and Dodge Challenger, are older designs due for replacement, but plans for older products are unclear.
Industry sources say a new Chrysler 300 is on the way, and there are plans by Chrysler to introduce a series of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles beginning in 2010.
Another new wrinkle is a proposed partnership between Chrysler and Fiat, the Italian automaker. Automotive News said the two companies would bring seven new vehicles to the North American market, with four as Chrysler brands and three as Fiats or Alfa Romeos.
The report said the vehicles all will be built at Chrysler plants in North America and sold through Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge dealerships. The cars will range from "urban-sized" microcars up to midsize products.
Under the proposed agreement, which is supposed to be completed by April 30, Fiat would have a 35 percent stake in Chrysler.