
Change was the buzzword of Barack Obama's presidential campaign. Now, with his presidency becoming reality today, businesses large and small are bracing for the Obama administration, and are wondering how the sweeping promises of change will affect the American business community, for good or ill.
But how much change will be palatable, given the state of the economy? With job losses mounting, the stock market still wobbly and borrowing at a premium, the new president will be pressured to shore up the economy before making any drastic regulatory changes.
"I think that it's clear that the president elect is looking to find ways to create jobs and put people to work," said John T. Delaney, dean of the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh.
"I think that is the most critical issue right now. We need to put people to work."
That means the much-discussed stimulus plan -- perhaps up to a trillion dollars, directed at tax relief, highway construction, the energy grid and other infrastructure projects -- could be the first business-related item to cross the 44th president's desk.
Still, at some point, Mr. Obama is going to want to mold the economy to his vision. Banks worry about new, more restrictive regulations in the financial markets. Manufacturers are uneasy about new environmental regulations -- and are at the same time curious about Mr. Obama's promised investments in green energy.
And the health care and insurance industries -- not to mention the many businesses that don't currently offer medical insurance benefits -- are anxious about Mr. Obama's revamp of the health insurance system.
Employers who don't offer health benefits should expect some kind of "pay or play" system, said Elliot Dinkin, executive vice president at Cowden Associates, a business consulting firm. They'll have to "offer some minimum level of benefits, or pay the differential in the form of a tax."
"Pay or play" was the phraseology used by the Republican presidential candidate, Arizona Sen. John McCain, to criticize Mr. Obama's plan. The Obama campaign said many small businesses would be exempt from the mandates if they met certain "revenue thresholds."
Rick Alfera, managing partner at Goff, Backa, Alfera & Co., a Brentwood accounting firm, said that among his clients, "most people feel that taxes are going to go up." But that concern is offset by the hope that Mr. Obama's use of the remaining TARP funds (Troubled Asset Relief Program) will help make it easier to borrow, allowing companies to again spend on capital improvements.
Locally, Pittsburgh is heavy on manufacturing and exporting. "Everybody here who's got smokestacks would be concerned bout the costs of meeting any new environmental mandates," Mr. Delaney said.
On exports -- primarily metals, chemicals, heavy machinery and mined goods -- companies that trade overseas wonder what impact Mr. Obama's new policies might have on the strength of the American dollar. A strong dollar can have the effect of making our goods more expensive overseas and in Canada, which is one of Pittsburgh's biggest foreign markets.
"I'm not saying we want a weak dollar, but a stronger dollar does not necessarily work in our favor," Mr. Delaney said. "There will be interest in keeping the dollar where it is."
Organized labor is hoping that an Obama presidency will mean the eventual enactment of the Employee Free Choice Act, and "card check" union ratification.
The law would require employers to recognize unions that had been created via signed authorization forms, or "check cards," while current law says employers can challenge the creation of such a union and require employees to take a secret-ballot vote.
Unions favor such a change because their leaders and members think it will be a boon to organization; many in the business community oppose it because employees lose anonymity when they are asked to sign a check card, making it easier for the union to intimidate the holdouts.
Even though organized labor has devoted years to the card-check effort, Mr. Delaney said it would be folly for the new president to push the Free Choice Act, given the state of the economy.
"It would be wise to look at alternatives to that legislation that would have less opposition from businesses," he said. "If we end up in a confrontation between business and labor right now, I don't think that will help us generate jobs."
But Mr. Dinken said the new president would be pressed on the card-check act immediately.
"I think that would be something we'd expect to push through fairly early. That was something he promised" to unions.