Population-wise, Toledo has jumped the line, and is officially bigger than Pittsburgh -- news that had city leaders calling for a little turnabout yesterday.
Ohio's Glass City (also nicknamed Frog Town), overleaped the Steel City by successfully challenging the U.S. Census Bureau's 2007 estimate of its population. Yesterday the bureau boosted Toledo's official population estimate from 295,029 to 316,851 while Pittsburgh's unchallenged population estimate is 311,218.
City Controller Michael Lamb was initially in disbelief over the news. Convinced of its veracity, he proposed that Pittsburgh fight back.
"I would think that given the fact that we more and more have become a college town, someone should be thinking about the way they count college students," Mr. Lamb said. "That could have a big impact."
Councilman Ricky Burgess, who heads council's planning committee, said the city has "an awful lot of development going on for a city that's supposedly losing population … My staff will now begin to look at the possibility of appealing [the city's estimated population] and its impact on our population and, later, government subsidies."
Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's administration wouldn't reveal details yesterday but is believed to be gathering data that might raise questions about the annual downgrades of Pittsburgh's population.
The Census Bureau's annual city population estimates, released in July, affect some federal funding streams. In a typical year, around 60 cities challenge the estimates, and the bureau sends them forms they can fill out to appeal.
Most cities that appeal use building permit or occupancy permit data, said Greg Harper, a demographer with the bureau's Population Division. Sometimes the bureau accepts or rejects a city's data wholesale, but usually there's some "back and forth" that results in an increase in the official estimate, he said.
Mr. Harper said Pittsburgh hasn't challenged its estimate in recent memory.
"We have every reason to believe that if the population estimates were challenged for Pittsburgh, there'd be an increase," said Shawn Bannon, a spokesman for the Allegheny Conference on Community Development, after checking with the business group's demographics experts. They've seen comparable cities file successful appeals, including St. Louis, Detroit and Milwaukee.
Sixty-one cities challenged their 2006 estimates, adding, on average, 4,790 residents, or 1.84 percent to their rolls. For Pittsburgh, a 1.84 percent increase would mean another 5,726 residents factored into federal funding formulas.
Complete data on challenges to 2007 estimates wasn't available yesterday.
Toledo Mayor Carty Finkbeiner has made the city's population a major issue, even hatching a plan to get the maximum count out of next year's full census.
The deadline for challenging 2007 estimates passed Jan. 5, but Pittsburgh may be laying the groundwork for an appeal of the next set of estimates.
Mr. Ravenstahl's administration is tallying building permits and totaling development projects. A new ordinance also demands the collection of better data on rental property tenants.
It's unclear, though, whether the resulting information will yield a higher or lower population estimate. The city wouldn't likely appeal if its count was lower than the Census Bureau's.
Mr. Lamb, who watches the tax dollars flow in, thinks wage tax receipts seem to suggest that "if there is not a slight upward trend, we're at least not falling away."
"I do believe that our city perhaps is starting to show signs of increasing population, because of so much development going on in the city proper," Mr. Burgess said.
