Natalie Wilson, financial aid director at Carlow University, knows from 20 years in the job that worries about paying for college are to be expected.

Just the same, she said, something is noticeably different in the voices of parents she is hearing from this year.

In recent weeks, she's fielded half a dozen calls from jittery parents trying to figure out a backup plan to keep a returning student enrolled this fall should the worst economy in a generation leave them out of work.

She offers reassurance, reminding them about deadlines and telling them to check back once they receive an offer of financial aid.

"I'm telling them not to panic," she said.

That angst is one more reason the mood in the recruiting office is far from relaxed, even though Carlow says its spring enrollment appears not to have suffered and its fall applications are running 28 percent ahead of last year.

Similar sentiments are coming from other Western Pennsylvania colleges as officials nervously await the final tally of applications for the fall.

A recent nationwide survey of 214 campuses conducted jointly by Moody's Investors Service and The Chronicle of Higher Education finds that nearly one in four private colleges expects a slight or significant decline in enrollment for the spring semester, which at many schools begins this week.

Colleges contacted across Western Pennsylvania, though many declined to provide numbers, generally said they have no evidence that students are being forced from campus midyear because of a sudden change in family finances. What will happen in the fall is harder to predict.

"It's kind of an eerie feeling right now. Our numbers are good and everything seems to be fine," said Bradley Tokar, dean of admissions at Westminster College in New Wilmington, Lawrence County. "At the same time, I'm worried with everything that's going on."

Deadlines to apply for regular decision enrollment vary by campus, but Jan. 15 and Feb. 1 are common cutoff dates. Other schools, including Carlow, consider applicants through the summer under rolling admission policies.

So far, economic woes have not led to as many employee layoffs on college campuses as in other sectors of the economy, the Moody's/Chronicle survey found. Still, a Moody's analyst told the Chronicle that many of those campuses may not feel the full effect of the downturn until the fall.

What that means will depend in part on how college consumers behave.

For instance, many admissions officers say greater concern over family finances means lower-priced public campuses become more attractive. That could mean an advantage for the likes of Penn State University, the University of Pittsburgh and the 14 state-owned universities including California, Clarion, Edinboro, Indiana and Slippery Rock in Western Pennsylvania.

But some of those schools, already facing cuts in their state appropriations, might have a harder time wooing out-of-state students less inclined to pay higher nonresident rates.

So far, there is no indication of that at Penn State, which says applications from outside Pennsylvania are 7 percent to 8 percent ahead of last year and that total fall applications systemwide last week stood at 45,140 for approximately 14,000 freshman slots, or about 3 percent ahead of last year's pace.

Pitt would not release application numbers but said the university was on pace with last year.

Private colleges, which are more dependent on income from tuition, face a different set of challenges. Those schools commonly offer significant discounts off their "sticker price" through financial aid awards, and there may be pressure to increase the amount of those awards this fall.

Carnegie Mellon University said it's too soon to release application totals, but spokesman Ken Walters said, "We've been trending slightly ahead of last year and early decision numbers are up."

Seton Hill University in Greensburg says it's not alarmed by an 11 percent lag thus far in fall applications because rates often fluctuate.

"Our registrar informed me that, based on informal polls among admissions counselors, other colleges in our area are also seeing modest decreases," said Seton Hill spokeswoman Molly Robb Shimko.

Even though Chatham University is 420 applications ahead of last year's pace, nobody there is uncorking champagne.

"A 10 or 12 percent increase is not making me feel real comfortable right now," said Michael Poll, vice president for admissions. "I don't know if those applicants have the ability to make it work financially."

Paul-James Cukanna, executive director for admissions at Duquesne University, said some programs on his campus may weather the bad economy better than others.

"We always have a good [recruiting] class in pharmacy because demand is good and there are not a lot of providers," he said. "Nursing is another one."

By contrast, he said, liberal arts programs like history and English might lose some students to lower-cost schools.

A year's tuition, room, board and fees are $34,363 at the Catholic university, but 85 percent of Duquesne undergraduates receive institutional aid that on average reduces the cost by about $15,000.

Last fall, Duquesne had its second-largest freshman class ever but still saw an overall enrollment decline of about 208 students, or 2 percent less than in 2007. As of last week, applications for this fall numbered 6,500 for about 1,350 freshmen slots, about 1,100 more than last year's pace.

Mr. Cukanna said it's hard to predict, especially this year, whether those numbers will give Duquesne its hoped-for "yield," or share of accepted students who choose to enroll.

"At least it's a good signal," he said.

Some schools are moving up offers of admission for certain students, using that as a hedge against a particularly unpredictable recruiting season.

One such school is Washington & Jefferson College in Washington, Pa., which as of last week had 5,776 fall applications for about 425 freshman slots, about 2 percent ahead of last year's pace. Alton Newell, the school's vice president for enrollment, said a greater share of students than a year ago has already completed all application requirements, so "clearly I'm trying to get out there with more offers."

"My gut tells me we are going to be fine because we have worked very hard to get out in front of this issue," he said. "Clearly we are going to have more conversations about money than in previous years."

At Allegheny College in Meadville, Crawford County, staff members aren't sure what to make of the numbers. The school began the fall well ahead in applications for regular admission and early decision. Later, it fell behind the previous year by about 8 percent.

"Now we've just about caught up," said Scott Friedhoff, vice president of enrollment.

Thiel College in Greenville, Mercer County, which saw an 82-student or roughly 7 percent decline in full-time students last fall, hasn't detected additional losses this spring. But along with more requests for more financial aid, the school in recent months has noticed more applications for income-modification review, which often means a job loss.

"When I talk to my counterparts across the Northeast, we're all just sort of doing what we can to recruit more out of state, out of the country, but right now we just don't know," said Mr. Poll of Chatham. "We're all just kind of scratching our heads."