STARTERS & BENCHWARMERS
You don't need me advising you to start Drew Brees and Brian Westbrook, or to steer clear of Ken Dorsey and Ronald Curry. So I'll spare you the obvious recommendations, focusing instead on the players typically on the bubble of most fantasy rosters. Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15.
Watch 'em roll
Kyle Orton, QB, Bears vs. Saints. Before an ankle injury sidelined him in midseason, Orton was on pace to be the fantasy surprise of the year. He returned in Week 11 rusty and ineffective, but he has improved every week since. Orton posted a pair of TD throws in each of the last two games, and will need more than that to keep pace with Drew Brees in tonight's critical showdown. It helps that the Saints pass defense stinks.
Dominic Rhodes, RB, Colts vs. Lions. Rhodes has scored in two of his last three games, which is two more than the struggling Joseph Addai can claim during that span. Though Addai is expected to start despite his banged-up shoulder, Rhodes should get nearly as many carries, and is a great bet to find the end zone at least once against the lowly Lions.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers vs. Broncos. No, I certainly didn't foresee the rookie's game-breaking performance against the Bucs' vaunted rush defense. But after witnessing Carolina's awesome RB tandem clicking on all cylinders Monday night, both players should be locked into starting lineups against Denver's porous defense. That's one scary duo.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins at Bengals. He hasn't scored or even come close to collecting 100 yards in a game since Week 8, a dry spell that coincides directly with Jason Campbell's fall from grace. Fortunately, Cincinnati's lame defense is just what the doctor ordered for the playmaking wideout, though I still wouldn't risk his quarterback in my lineup.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers at Chiefs. He had a career game last week against the stout Raiders secondary, and follows up against one of the league's passing doormats this weekend. With the incredible, shrinking Chris Chambers now a non-factor in the San Diego offense, Jackson should have another dominant Sunday afternoon.
Roll 'em back
Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots at Raiders. Facing its second West Coast game in a row, the Patriots chose to stay in San Jose all week. Expect them to be out of sync as a result. Meanwhile, Oakland's pass defense had been formidable until Philip Rivers torched them last Thursday night. Sadly, Cassel's father passed away on Monday, and he left the team to be with his family. Though he should return for the game, he has bigger things to worry about than how to overcome the Raiders.
Willie Parker, RB, Steelers at Ravens. He hasn't had a decent game against Baltimore since the middle of the 2005 season, when a TD reception salvaged an otherwise mediocre performance. His best career rushing output versus the Ravens was 63 yards, also in 2005. On the heels of a disappointing performance against Dallas, Fast Willie should be nowhere near your starting lineup this week.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills at Jets. Normally an every-week starter, Lynch has at least four strikes against him this week. First, J.P. Losman is likely to make his second consecutive start, allowing the Jets to stack the line with few worries about the Bills' passing attack. Second, Lynch was held to a career-low 16 rushing yards in Week 9 against New York. Third, he's coming off his worst overall performance of the season (35 total yards) against Miami. And last, the Jets boast one of the league's stingiest run defenses, and they desperately need this game. Shutting down Lynch will be priority one, two and three.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals vs. Redskins. He hasn't sniffed the end zone since Week 11, and a string of tough opponents continues when the Redskins come to town. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been awful, though it hasn't helped that Cincinnati has allowed the second-most sacks in the league. Washington sports a tough, aggressive pass defense, so neither Bengal wideout is likely to help you win your playoff matchup.
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans vs. Titans. He has an uncanny string of up-one-week-down-the-next performances this season, with all eight of his touchdowns following the trend. While this seems to be mere coincidence, his matchup against Tennessee's oppressive defense will make it difficult for Walter to break the pattern.
TAKING A FLIER
Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots at Raiders. With his team's passing game possibly out of rhythm due to the West Coast blues, the tough matchup, and a distracted quarterback, Morris will likely be leaned upon more than normal. Fortunately, Oakland's run defense is awful. Now that Kevin Faulk has reverted to his change-of-pace role, a fully healthy Morris should have his best game since his 138-yard, one-touchdown performance against Denver in Week 7.
DON'T BE THE BONEHEAD WHO ...
... neglects to bench (or better yet, release) Matt Jones now that his suspension has been upheld by the NFL. He's gone for the rest of the season, leaving David Garrard without his primary target. Reggie Williams is in the best position to pick up the slack, but do you really want to risk your playoff fate on a Jaguar receiver?