The last time Radiohead was nominated for Album of the Year, the trailblazing British band lost to Steely Dan in what amounted to a lifetime achievement nod for the crusty veterans from Los Angeles.
For the 51st Grammy Awards, whose nominations were announced in prime time Wednesday, Radiohead, arguably the most important band of the past decade, finds itself up against the more popular Coldplay, which took the Radiohead formula and added more of a sugar coating. It would be a fascinating one-on-one contest.
But there are three other challengers, and one stands out as an early favorite. Not Lil Wayne for "Tha Carter III" or Ne-Yo for "Year of the Gentleman." No, you have to think more Grammy voters will be checking the Robert Plant and Alison Krauss box for "Raising Sand," which happens to be the project standing in the way of that long-slobbered-for Led Zeppelin reunion.
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"Raising Sand" has four things in its favor:
It's the only entry that crosses genres, tapping into rock, folk, blues and bluegrass.
The only Grammy Zeppelin ever won was a Lifetime Achievement Award, so this is a chance to reward one of its members in a big way.
Krauss has already won 21 Grammys, so we know they love her.
"Raising Sand" was actually a great album that was both a commercial and critical success.
Radiohead, with "In Rainbows," an album initially released online in a bold pay-as-you-please experiment, and Coldplay, with "Viva La Vida," should have better luck further down the list. Radiohead is nominated for Best Alternative Album with Beck, Death Cab for Cutie, Gnarls Barkley and My Morning Jacket. Coldplay is up against Kid Rock, Kings of Leon, Metallica and the Raconteurs for Best Rock Album. How Gnarls is any more alternative than Kings of Leon is Grammy logic -- not quite of Jethro Tull-in-the-metal-category variety, but odd nonetheless.
Only two rap artists -- Outkast and Lauryn Hill -- have won the best album category, and Kanye West was famously passed over in two recent years, so Lil Wayne has a better shot at Best Rap Album, and Ne-Yo looks good for Best Contemporary R&B Album.
Whatever happens, this best album field is much different than last year when no two nominees were even remotely alike -- Herbie Hancock, Vince Gill, Kanye West, Amy Winehouse and the Foo Fighters -- and few people had heard that winning Hancock record.
This year's top categories are also flush with new and female faces -- Adele, Leona Lewis, Sara Bareilles, M.I.A. -- giving the Feb. 8 Grammy show a chance to spike the dipping ratings with younger viewers. That would also explain the appearance of the Jonas Brothers as a Best New Artist contender, even as the boys are on album number three.