Earlier this decade, when it was battered by cheap imports and burdened with pension and health care obligations, America's hemorrhaging steel industry ensured its survival by swallowing the bitter pill of bankruptcy.
Throwing themselves at the mercy of judges who kept creditors at bay, Bethlehem Steel and other Rust Belt icons shed $8 billion in pension obligations and instantly made themselves more attractive targets for acquirers. The buyers negotiated court-approved wage, benefit and other concessions from labor unions, closed outdated mills, and consolidated a fragmented industry.
The result: a leaner, globally competitive steel producers with cleaned up balance sheets and flexible cost structures that provide some shelter from cyclical downdrafts.
Could the same prescription cure Detroit's Big 3?
Analysts believe the discipline and focus bankruptcy exerted on debilitated steelmakers would be good for the Big 3, given their public relations gaffe of taking corporate jets to Washington to plead for a $25 billion loan.
But analysts said there are a host of reasons why the court-supervised regimen won't work for the Big 3. The auto industry faces more severe problems and a much grimmer economic outlook and may not find rescuers who can arrange financing in gridlocked credit markets. Moreover, customers likely will think twice about buying from a bankrupt car maker that may not be able to provide warranty coverage, fix their recalled vehicles or offer parts and service.
"I don't think the bankruptcy route is a viable option. It's a dramatically different situation than the steel industry faced," said Scott Paul of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.
The Washington, D.C.-based policy analyst said the auto industry has a much larger economic footprint than steel. Including dealers and parts suppliers, it employs more than 1.5 million workers, spends $156 billion annually on parts, materials and services and supports as many as one in 10 U.S. jobs. Car manufacturers are the biggest customers for steel, plastics, electronics and computer chips.
"This is not an economic crisis that's confined to Detroit," Mr. Paul said. "The stakes for American manufacturing in general are very high."
The industry's reach in a faltering economy -- and the key role organized labor played in President-elect Barack Obama's victory -- give the industry enormous leverage.
"We certainly can't afford to have another million or million and a half people to be out of work next year. That's where we would see this thing going if they don't get any money," said George Magliano, an auto industry analyst with IHS Global Insight.
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have borrowed parts of the steel industry's recovery plan. Their latest contracts with the United Auto Workers union were supposed to provide breathing room until 2010, when they would be on more competitive footing with Toyota and other foreign competitors.
Those contracts included setting aside billions to cover the future cost of retiree health care benefits through trust funds called voluntary employee beneficiary associations, or VEBA's. Steelmakers lightened their balance sheets by transferring their responsibility to pay the benefits to the trust funds. The Big 3 hope to do the same by pouring billions of their own money and redirecting a portion of UAW-represented workers' paychecks into the trust funds before 2010.
But their best laid plans didn't factor in the most serious economic unrest since the Great Depression, auto sales dropping to a 25-year low, and credit markets drying up.
"The issue today is that business got so much worse that the plans they put in place do not work. With sales falling through the floor, those plans don't make sense anymore," Mr. Magliano said.
Even when the steel industry hit bottom, a few stable producers remained standing that had enough staying power to acquire their fallen foes, such as U.S. Steel's $1.3 billion acquisition of National Steel. Also, a major financial buyer emerged: financier Wilbur Ross, who lined up credit to purchase Bethlehem, LTV Steel and Weirton Steel.
The Big 3 have attracted some private capital in recent years, with Cerberus Capital Management acquiring a controlling stake in Chrysler last year for $7 billion. But there is no private source of capital to fund their way out of the recession now.
"You can't consolidate losers. That's where we stand now," said Fariborz Ghadar, director of the Center for Global Business Studies at Penn State's Smeal College of Business. "Somebody's got to get rid of the stream of obligations that are there."
Dr. Ghadar believes the auto industry "is in significantly worse shape than the steel industry."
Moreover, with the recession expected to deepen and last well into next year, the Big 3 probably won't benefit from the kind of economic lift that hastened the steel industry's recovery. Booming demand for steel in China, the Middle East and other parts of the globe and a weaker U.S. dollar led to higher prices, relief from imports and export opportunities for U.S. steelmakers, said Tony Taccone of First River Consulting in Pittsburgh.
"It was the global environment that really created an opportunity for restructured mills," Mr. Taccone said. "Heading into a global boom for commodities and steel helped them revive."
Although the bankruptcy process is cumbersome and expensive, Mr. Taccone said, the costs can be offset by the discipline it imposes. Like many, he's concerned a $25 billion loan may buy some time for the Big 3 but won't address their underlying issues.
"What gives you the comfort level that they're going to come up with a restructuring plan?" he said. "The government's experience at transforming industry is not particularly good, so you can't really look to the government to solve the problem."
On Friday, the Big 3 will make their case for the $25 billion loan before the House Financial Services Committee. No matter how they get to Washington, industry officials are expected to provide detailed plans for restructuring operations and producing more fuel-efficient cars that consumers will buy.
Mr. Paul concedes that in the wake of the government engineered rescues of Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Citigroup, "there is a little bailout fatigue." But he's hopeful that after doing so much for white collar industries, regulators will approve a much smaller rescue plan for a blue collar one.
"The right decision to make is a $25 billion bridge loan that would be repaid with some conditions attached to it," he said.
Mr. Paul believes that would be less expensive than government bearing the costs of unemployment benefits, social services and other relief that would have to be provided to workers and families who depend on the automotive industry. Dr. Ghadar agrees.
"It's politically unacceptable and that's why I think they're going to do something about it," the Penn State professor said.