The nation's retailers, who must be trying to figure out what they did to deserve the lumps of coal that have been landing in their stockings lately, could be setting the stage for one of the crazier Black Friday shindigs in years.

Play their deals right on the day after Thanksgiving and they'll have consumers lining up in the dark and shopping in the middle of the night to stretch their remaining money as far as possible.

Last year, the National Retail Federation estimates, more than 60 million people shopped that day, with the average shopper on Black Friday -- so called because it's the day that struggling retailers can turn a profit, or go in the black, for the year -- spending almost $350 over the holiday weekend. With many chains reporting sales off significantly this fall, the annual deal fest could be the last big chance for some retailers to save the season.

"I think we will see the biggest traffic ever on Black Friday," said C. Britt Beemer, chief executive officer and founder of America's Research Group in Charleston, S.C., which is just one of several organizations predicting hordes of shoppers will be out and about that day.

Just how much they'll actually buy depends on the deals. Price is more important than almost anything else this year, experts agree, and retailers have set the bar pretty high if, following tradition, their Black Friday deals are going to be bigger and better than those offered in weeks leading up to the holiday.

Many stores already have been using discounts liberally to try to jumpstart consumer spending, yet data from the National Retail Federation indicates people haven't done any more holiday shopping early this year than they did last year.

"It seems that many consumers are waiting to see what retailers have up their sleeves," said Ellen Davis, a spokeswoman for the Washington, D.C., retail trade group.

Retailers have promoted the day -- and used the term -- so heavily in recent years that most shoppers know exactly what it means.

"All the retailers together have trained you to think that Black Friday is exceptional," said Dan de Grandpre, founder and editor of dealnews.com, an online shopping discount service.

This year, a higher percentage of people plan to shop on Black Friday than last year, according to an online poll by Maritz Research, based in St. Louis. Just as important, the average Black Friday shopper plans to spend 45 percent of his or her total holiday budget that day.

"In order to capture as much of that spend as possible, retailers need to help their shoppers feel savvy by having the product available, easy to find and at the deep discount shoppers are desperately seeking on Black Friday," said Tom Krause, director of strategic consulting for Maritz in a prepared statement.

The move to spread the spending associated with Black Friday across a longer period was evident last year. Wal-Mart used the term for specials offered a couple of weeks early. "This year, you've seen a lot of other stores trying to extend it even earlier," said Mr. de Grandpre, a Carnegie Mellon University graduate.

In mid-November, Sears sent an e-mail blast for a "family and friends" night promising "incredible Friday and Saturday after-Thanksgiving prices." Wal-Mart and Kmart have been promoting Black Friday-style deals for weeks and Toys 'R' Us claims to have had sales every day since October.

Things are intensifying as the days pass. CVS/pharmacy announced "Black Friday shopping event starts early," as it promoted doorbuster deals starting today. Dollar General has said it is on a similar program in advance of the holiday.

There is some danger that overuse could dilute the term's value. Not all the discounts pitched so far have been the kind that could drive people to battle it out in the aisles for TVs, toys and game systems.

Mr. de Grandpre's site -- tagline: "Where every day is Black Friday" -- sorts through offers to determine which to share with subscribers. "Some of the deals are not very good," he said, bluntly. He wasn't impressed, for example, by some of the Kmart sales a few weeks ago when that retailer tried to get customers' attention.

Skepticism was also evident in an e-mail from BFAds.com, one of many Web sites trying to get early information on deals.

"We'll start with the ugly," the alert read, even as it told readers about a new posting of what appeared to be electronics chain Best Buy's Black Friday ad. The author went on to say half of the items listed as being on sale were actually just at their regular sale price. He floated several theories, including the possibility that this was a fake ad or that Best Buy planned to rely more on its "secret sales" to get shoppers excited. The retailer did not return a call for comment.

Even merchants who haven't been dropping the "BF" word will have to work hard to get people's attention. If, say, American Eagle Outfitters or the Gap have been offering deals for weeks, the novelty may start to wear off. "They run the risk of making people tune out," said Mr. de Grandpre.

Most industry observers expect some really good post-Thanksgiving offers for those willing to do the research, either by reading newspaper inserts and ad circulars or checking out the numerous Web sites devoted to uncovering Black Friday deals.

At dealnews.com in early November, the staff was sorting through about 2,000 specials daily to find the best 150 to 200. By Black Friday, that could rise to 300 deals that make the cut out of 3,000.

The site uses a complicated system to choose the best ones. Even merchants who advertise with the operation won't get on if they don't make the cut, said Mr. de Grandpre. They will be given the opportunity to sweeten the offer, however, and some do.

Other Black Friday sites were reporting surges both in products being discounted for the big day and in visits from shoppers trying to sort them out.

At BlackFriday.info, traffic is up about 40 percent over last year, according to founder Jon Vincent. While "doorbusters" are typically a few items offered at amazing prices in limited quantities, he said Sears is expected to offer 450 doorbuster items the day after Thanksgiving.

Visits to GottaDeal.com are up 35 percent. Owner Brad Olson was expecting deals wouldn't be significantly better than last year but he did predict there would be more weekly sales both before and after the big shopping day.

Good advance work may help people save gas by hitting only the sales they like best, whether online or off. "I think consumers are saying, 'Before I go out there, I have to make sure the deals are there,' " said Mr. Beemer, whose research showed almost 51 percent of shoppers planning to read newspaper inserts more often and 40 percent planning to watch TV ads more for sales.

In addition to the various Web sites' unofficial postings of ads from chains like Best Buy, Walgreens and even Findlay-based Dick's Sporting Goods, many retailers are officially promising good stuff. Typically, the doorbuster craziness is focused more on big box and discount stores although shoppers will find deals at upscale stores, too, as luxury retailers battle the same gloomy economic issues as everyone else.

Toys 'R' Us is guaranteeing 50 percent more doorbusters for those who shop between 5 a.m. and 1 p.m. Friday, an hour longer than last year. Office Depot will send registered customers a "sneak peak" on Tuesday so they can study the Black Friday deals. Kohl's, opening at 4 a.m. Friday, promises significantly more early bird specials than last year.

Meanwhile, KB Toys and the Disney Stores will open at midnight, as will both the Prime Outlets mall in Grove City and the new Tanger Outlet mall in South Strabane.

Merchants might not have been so discount-oriented this year if the credit crisis and stock market problems hadn't hit just as the holiday shopping season was gearing up, said Mr. de Grandpre.

"It's really a bad time for retailers," he said. "It's really good for bargain hunters."