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PSU Football: Texas Tech moves past Lions in BCS
Analyst predicts Penn State will play for national title
Monday, November 03, 2008

Penn State is not a shoo-in to play in the Bowl Championship Series national championship game. The Nittany Lions still need some help to lock up a spot in the Jan. 8 title game at Dolphins Stadium in Miami.


Up next

Game: Penn State (9-0) at Iowa (5-4), 3:30 p.m., Saturday.

Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa.

TV: ABC, ESPN.


In the latest BCS standings released last night, Alabama took over the top spot, followed by No. 2 Texas Tech and No. 3 Penn State. All three teams are 9-0.

The computer rankings made the difference for Texas Tech, which stunned previously top-ranked Texas, 39-33, late Saturday night to move up five spots and jump ahead of Penn State, which was idle.

Alabama had a BCS average of .9747, Texas Tech was at .9372 and Penn State at .9286.

Texas Tech was a close No. 3 behind the Lions in the USA Today coaches' poll and the Harris Interactive Poll. Alabama was No. 1 in both.

Still, BCS analyst Jerry Palm predicted yesterday that the Lions will play Florida for the national title. The Gators (7-1) are ranked No. 5 in the BCS.

"If I had a vote, I'd take Penn State No. 1 over both Alabama and Texas Tech," he said. "I think they're the better team. I like Penn State's chances. I think the odds are good that someone will knock off Alabama or Texas Tech."

The Associated Press poll also had Alabama ranked No. 1, Texas Tech No. 2 and Penn State No. 3.

Palm said if all three finish unbeaten, he believes Penn State will be the odd team out. The Lions need a loss by Alabama or Texas Tech to reach the title game.

"I think Texas Tech and Alabama would finish ahead of Penn State if all were undefeated," he said. "I just don't see how a 12-0 Penn State team could catch a 13-0 team from the Big 12 or a 13-0 team from the SEC."


The BCS Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Texas.
5. Florida
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma State
10. Boise State
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Georgia
14. Missouri
15. Brigham Young
16. LSU
17. Ball State
18. Michigan State
19. North Carolina
20. Georgia Tech
21. California
22. Florida State
23. Maryland
24. Northwestern
25. West Virginia

Penn State has one thing in its favor: No unbeaten team from a BCS conference has ever been kept out of the national championship game in favor of a one-loss team.

"I do not expect Penn State to be the first," Palm said. "There isn't a whole lot not to like about Penn State. They have an excellent offense, a terrific defense, a great kicker and they can hurt you in so many ways. They do a lot of things really well."

Penn State has the softest remaining schedule of the three undefeated teams. The Lions play at Iowa (5-4) Saturday before finishing with home games against Indiana (3-6) and No. 18 Michigan State (8-2).

"My advice to Penn State would be, 'Get to 12-0 and hope that's good enough,'" Palm said. "That's all they can do. If it ends up they don't make it, that would be bad luck for Penn State.

"But, then again, Penn State fans are well aware of bad luck when it comes to the national championship race."

There's an outside chance that Alabama and Penn State could play for the national title for the first time since the 1979 Sugar Bowl.

However, Alabama's road to the national championship this season is much tougher than Penn State's. The Crimson Tide play at No. 15 LSU (6-2) Saturday, then play host to Mississippi State (3-6) and Auburn (4-5) before likely tackling Florida in the SEC championship game.

Alabama's Nick Saban will be coaching in Baton Rouge, La., for the first time since leaving LSU after the 2004 season for the NFL's Miami Dolphins. He led the Tigers to the national title in 2003. On top of that, Auburn has a six-game winning streak against rival Alabama.

As for Texas Tech, it still has to play No. 8 Oklahoma State (8-1) at home, No. 6 Oklahoma (8-1) on the road and Baylor (3-6) at home in the regular season. The Raiders could face No. 13 Missouri (7-2) in the Big 12 championship game.

"We know the only thing we can control is us," Penn State guard Stefen Wisniewski said last week.

West Virginia (6-2) is No. 20 in the AP poll, while Pitt (6-2) is No. 25. The Mountaineers are No. 23 in the coaches' poll and No. 25 in the BCS rankings.

Ron Musselman can be reached at rmusselman@post-gazette.com.
First published on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 am