A year ago Baldwin's David Adley was the prohibitive favorite to win the individual title in the Class AAA boys' race at the WPIAL cross country championships.
This year's favorite going into the championships today at Cooper's Lake Campground near Slippery Rock is ... well, there doesn't appear to be a favorite.
Ryan Gil, a sophomore at North Allegheny, won the Tri-State Track Coaches Association championship a week ago on the same 3.1-mile course that will serve today's finals. But Gil isn't a lock to win this afternoon.
Mt. Lebanon junior Rad Gunzenhauser was second at the Tri-State Coaches championships, just two seconds behind Gil. And Baldwin's T.J. Hobart placed fourth and appears to be peaking at the right time.
Gunzenhauser even caught Gil, who finished in 16 minutes, 3 seconds, with less than a mile to go before falling back. That doesn't mean Gil or anyone else will be able to hold him off the next time.
The WPIAL championships get under way at 1:45 p.m. today with the Class AA girls' race. It will be followed at 2:30 p.m. by Class AAA girls' final with the Class AA boys' race at 3:15 p.m. The Class AAA boys' final is at 4 p.m.
The top four teams in each race advance to the PIAA championships in Hershey Nov. 1. Also the first 20 runners in each classification who are not a member of any of those four teams advance to the PIAA meet.
Gunzenhauser was leading the Red, White & Blue Classic in early September, but faltered at the end and was passed by Gateway's D.J. Krystek. So, is he gun-shy about leading a big race like the WPIAL championships?
"Part of his thing is his competitive drive. For a distance runner he's very competitive," Mt. Lebanon coach Mike Agostinella said when asked about Gunzenhauser. "So, his deal is that if there's a target he pushes himself a little harder.
"As long as he's in what we call the head of the caterpillar, in the front group, he's got a chance."
Hobart, who was fifth at the WPIAL championships last year, is the X factor in the final. He has outstanding speed and is the WPIAL Class AAA 1,600-meter champion. If it comes down to a sprint in the final 800 meters, he's the favorite to outkick the competition.
The problem is that weather conditions can affect his breathing. At the Tri-State Coaches championships the weather was ideal and he had no problems.
"I just wanted to get a good race in," Hobart said. "I've been starting to fall apart a little bit. But, as the season progresses, I've been starting to pick it up and run better paces. I'm just hoping to keep progressing."
Hobart was pleased with his fourth-place finish. He was only nine seconds behind Gil.
"I like this race," he said of the Tri-State Coaches championship. "It's good to see the course, to see where you stack up against everyone. It's a good gauge for [the championships]."
He agreed that there is no favorite for the Class AAA title.
"That's what's awesome about this year," Hobart said. "And the times have improved so much. I was talking to one of the guys on our team who placed 20th or so [Matt Cecala] and his time was so much faster than last year ... and he was 20th."
As for winning the race today: "I'm liking my chances. I'll keep my fingers crossed," Hobart said.
Others expected to be in the hunt for the individual Class AAA boys' title include Seneca Valley's Cam Stauffer, North Allegheny's Will Appman, and Gil, Gateway's Krystek, Canon-McMillan's Matt Gregory, and Joe Kush and Juris Silenieks from North Hills.
North Allegheny is the favorite to win the Class AAA boys' team title, but Mt. Lebanon has been coming on and Baldwin, with it's young lineup -- Hobart is the only senior in the top seven runners -- appears as if it will challenge for one of the top four spots.
On the girls' side, Mt. Lebanon, with junior Samantha Carl leading the way, should be a contender for one of the top four team places. Latrobe, the defending champion, looks strong and will probably battle Norwin for this year's Class AAA team title.
The meet
What: WPIAL cross country championships.
When: 1:45 p.m. today.
Where: Cooper's Lake Campground near Slippery Rock.
The races: The girls' Class AA race is at 1:45 p.m. and will be followed by girls' Class AAA at 2:30 p.m., boys' Class AA at 3:15 p.m. and boys' Class AAA at 4 p.m.
Who advances: Top four teams and top 20 individuals who are not members of one of those teams advance to PIAA championships in each classification.