Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said it would be appropriate for Congress to enact a second stimulus package designed to give consumers, home buyers and businesses better access to credit.
Mr. Bernanke made the pitch for more fast-acting, economic relief in testimony before the House Budget Committee, saying "extraordinary tightening in credit conditions has played a central role in the slowdown."
Economists agree that making more money available to borrow on better terms would stimulate the recession-bound economy. But they caution that availability of credit is only part of the solution.
With nearly 1 million private sector jobs lost since January, unemployment rising from 4.9 percent to 6.1 percent over the same period, and consumer confidence at its second-lowest level since May 1980, there are doubts about whether consumers and businesses will want to borrow.
"You're kind of in a vicious circle right now," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an Arlington, Va., economics research organization.
Mr. Meckstroth said plunging consumer confidence leads to cutbacks in consumer spending, which reduces demand for goods and ultimately leads to more unemployment.
"We're in a very difficult period and we're in the very early stages of it," he said. "To get us out of it, you have to make some changes now."
Possible measures include purchasing mortgages from distressed borrowers and providing more affordable mortgages for creditworthy borrowers who could take advantage of the bargains falling housing prices have created.
"You have people who all they need is some credit," Mr. Meckstroth said.
He suggested increasing unemployment benefits or providing job training for those who lose their jobs in the recession, measures Mr. Bernanke did not mention.
Mr. Bernanke's remarks give "Congress a green light to go ahead with an additional fiscal stimulus package," said Global Insight economist Brian Bethune. The first legislation, signed by President Bush in February, provided $168 billion in the form of rebate checks: up to $600 for singles, $1,200 per couples and an extra $300 per child.
Mr. Bethune said consumers could use second rebate check to pay down debt and improve their credit scores, making them more eligible to borrow. But whether it would give them or businesses the confidence to stimulate the economy by borrowing is questionable, he said.
"It's almost like 'Mission Impossible' here," Mr. Bethune said. "The question is: How can you get consumers and business to demand more [credit.]"
Even in the face of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 5 percent advance yesterday, Mr. Bernanke's comments on the economy won't put some in a borrowing mood.
"The pace of economic activity is likely to be below that of it's longer-run potential for several quarters," he said. "The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is unusually large."
Mr. Bethune called the phrasing "a technical euphemism" for recession and described Mr. Bernanke's economic update as "grim."
Mr. Meckstroth said most taxpayers used rebate checks from the first stimulus package to pay down credit card debt. That had a fleeting impact on the economy, he said.
University of Maryland economics professor Peter Morici said regional banks don't have the money to lend because large, national banks are no longer buying up loans regional banks issue, repackaging them and selling them to pension funds and other large, fixed income investors.
"That conduit, that pipeline is gone," he said.
Rebate checks provide only temporary relief and only if the banking and foreign exchange systems are functioning normally, Dr. Morici said.
"You get a sugar high out of it and that's OK if the rest of the system is fine," he said.
Mr. Bernanke emphasized any relief should stimulate the economy sooner rather than later and should, to the extent possible, not aggravate the mushrooming federal budget deficit.
"What he's saying is don't create a great, big pork barrel-filled project," Mr. Meckstroth said.
Even before Mr. Bernanke's appearance on Capitol Hill yesterday, Global Insight assumed Congress already was leaning toward a stimulus package that included infrastructure spending and help with health care expenses. After his remarks, the measure will likely be expanded to provide relief on the credit front as well," Mr. Bethune said.