For only the second time in 12 tries this month, faith triumphed over fear yesterday in the ongoing struggle between Wall Street's heavily favored bears and the badly outnumbered bulls.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell as much as 380 points, stormed back into positive territory only to retreat again before closing at 8,979, up 401. The 5 percent advance left the market barometer down 17 percent for the month and 32 percent for the year.
The widespread carnage has created what financial advisers nearly unanimously say are buying opportunities of a lifetime for courageous investors. They point to a raft of historical studies documenting the generous returns investors have earned following previous market swoons.
Thus far, traumatized investors by and large don't believe them.
"It just seems people are looking for reasons to sell," said John Frankola of Vista Investment Management in Pittsburgh.
Take Wednesday, when a 1.2 percent decline in retail sales helped trigger the Dow's second-largest point drop in history.
"When I actually saw the numbers, I thought: 'Hey, that's not that bad.' I thought retail sales would have been worse," Mr. Frankola said.
He is in a distinct minority. A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll revealed 59 percent of Americans think a depression is likely. And Jim Cramer, CNBC's resident market evangelist, is telling investors to keep money out of stocks if they'll need the cash in five years.
History says Mr. Cramer is wrong, said Robert Fragasso of the Fragasso Group, a Downtown financial adviser.
The 10 times the market suffered normal downturns over the past 82 years, investors recovered their money in the following year, Mr. Fragasso e-mailed clients last week. It took them up to four years to be made whole after larger bear markets in the early 1930s, the early 1970s and the early 2000s, he said.
Mr. Frankola notes that since 1945, there have been 14 months when the Dow has fallen 20 percent or more over the preceding year. Each time that happened, the Dow produced generous returns over the next 12 months, ranging from 9 to 39 percent, Mr. Frankola said.
"It's always been good to invest in bear markets," he said. "If anybody is looking two or three years out, you're looking at spectacular returns over that period. If that's your time frame, the answer is simple."
It might be were it not for the fact that investors tend to think the good times will never end when bulls carry the day and think stocks can only go down when bears are in command.
"People believe what they've just seen happen," said Manny Weintraub of Integre Advisors in New York. "It is a good time to buy. I prefer to buy when people are selling."
Those who share Mr. Weintraub's view all make the same point: the unprecedented scope of action taken by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury Department and central bankers around the globe will prevent a repeat of the Great Depression.
"The risk of really bad things happening has gone down dramatically with a lot of these global things happening," said Colin Symons of Symons Capital Management in Mt. Lebanon. "Generally, it's better to buy here than sell."
My. Symons has started looking at companies trading near five-year lows such as Pepsico, which is also one of Mr. Weintraub's favorites. Pepsi shares tumbled 12 percent Tuesday after the company reported third-quarter per-share earnings two cents shy of analysts estimates.
"That's an awful lot of punishment for not much of a problem," Mr. Symons said.
But he's staying away from banks. "I'm scared to death of banks. I just don't know what they're worth," Mr. Symons said.
Few are recommending two-fisted buying. Mr. Weintraub said given doubts about how the economic slowdown will affect corporate earnings, investors may want to wait until after companies report their results. He expects there will be opportunities when pessimists pound solid companies whose quarterly earnings fall short.
"I love to buy after they disappoint," he said. "There's nothing wrong with keeping some powder dry."
Mr. Fragasso said there's good reason for caution.
"I'm not a Pollyanna. This is a very serious time," he said. "Is it going to get worse before it gets better? Who knows? Have we hit bottom yet? Who knows?"
But he believes investors who selectively invest in stocks now will do well in the long run even if they suffer some near term heartburn.
"If you buy today and it drops another 1,000 points tomorrow, you're going to say 'Boy, was I stupid.' But you're buying relatively at the bottom."