
CONSHOHOCKEN, Pa. -- Bruce Castor was making small talk with a few Fraternal Order of Police officials yesterday as they waited for reporters to arrive for a McCain campaign news conference. By the scheduled hour, one television cameraman had shown up; no local reporters.
"There's a dead body in Juniata Park," a McCain staffer reported. "That's what some people are covering."
Deciding not to wait any longer, the Montgomery County commissioner, a former prosecutor, dutifully read a statement assailing Arizona Sen. John McCain's presidential rival, Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, as soft on crime, as a friend of "the unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers."
Finishing second to a corpse for media attention was not quite the result the campaign might have hoped for on a day when polls depicted a double-digit deficit for the GOP ticket in a state they've heavily targeted.
But a few miles away, the local McCain headquarters radiated more positive political energy. The door opened regularly for eager Republican partisans arriving to collect tickets for the Arizona senator's appearance today at a nearby community college. Elsewhere in the warren of rooms in a Blue Bell office park, there was the quiet buzz of a handful of volunteers on the phones, seeking votes and fielding more requests for tickets.
Three weeks before the election, the Pennsylvania McCain campaign offers conflicting clues. Polls increasingly suggest that a state barely won by the last two Democratic nominees is all but out of reach for the Republican.
A few weeks ago, when the McCain camp essentially ceded Michigan, his strategists told reporters that they were shifting their resources to states, like Pennsylvania, where they had a better chance. Today, Mr. Obama has a significantly bigger Pennsylvania lead than he does in Michigan.
"[McCain] probably has more ground to make up in Pennsylvania than in any other battleground," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
A new Marist poll released yesterday showed the Democrat up by 9 points. In its latest daily tracking poll, the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion showed Mr. Obama leading by the daunting margin of 51 percent to 38 percent.
But the body language of the McCain campaign suggests that they see -- or at least hope for -- something in Pennsylvania that has eluded the polling consensus. Far from writing off the state, the Republican campaign has made it a prime focus of one of its most valuable resources in the waning day before the election: their candidates' time.
Mr. McCain tried to appear upbeat but clear-eyed as he assessed his chances in a speech yesterday in Virginia. "Now, my friends, let me give you the state of the race today and some straight talk," he said. "We have 22 days to go. We're 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending -- take away your right to vote by secret ballot and labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. ... My friends, I won't concede defeat. I'll bring our troops home with victory and with honor."
In addition to Mr. McCain's appearance today on the eve of the final presidential debate, his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has crossed the state, with appearances over the weekend in Johnstown and Philadelphia. Today, she's headed to Scranton, countering the joint appearance Sunday of former President Bill Clinton and his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, along with Obama running mate Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.
McCain staffers said one or more stops for their candidates was under consideration for the days after tomorrow's debate. If the Republican has no chance here, someone should alert his scheduler.
"It's still in play; I've seen the polls bounce up and down in four weeks," said Pennsylvania's Sen. Arlen Specter. "The chances are that there is going to be a pickup in the economy. That could help. Nobody knows for sure. ...
"I think he needs Pennsylvania to win, and it's going to go down to the wire. I remember that Hubert Humphrey in '68 was counted out, and, if the election had been two or three days later, he might have won."
A variety of other Pennsylvania GOP officials acknowledged their concern at the diving polls numbers, even as they were unanimous in insisting, with varying degrees of vehemence, that their state was still in play.
"I still think, if Senator McCain were to live in southeastern Pennsylvania and talk about the economy and national security and things that are his strengths, this would continue to be a race," said Mr. Castor, who has seen his vote-rich county shift from a Republican to a Democratic registration edge -- in large part due to the efforts of the Obama campaign. "But time is growing short."
"Is Obama a lock? Not when you saw 8,000 people here for Palin on Saturday," said state Republican chairman Robert Gleason. "That's more than we had for [President] Bush four years ago."
Mr. Gleason praised the vice-presidential nominee's sharp criticisms of the Democrat's pro-choice record on abortion and predicted that the issue could be counted on to produce support from "the Reagan Democrats, they're still out there," in the state's center and its southwestern and northeastern corners.
But he acknowledged that the abortion issue is a challenge for his party in suburban Philadelphia counties, where many traditional Republicans are more liberal on social issues.
Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell, commenting on Ms. Palin's impact Saturday as he was campaigning in Philadelphia with Mr. Obama, said, "She helps some, but for every bit of help she gives, she hurts with progressive Republicans, moderate Republicans and Independents."
In Pennsylvania, as nationally, surveys have shown an erosion in McCain support among women over the past month. The senator's event today in Blue Bell is focused on women's issues, in an apparent attempt to counter that slide.
"It's a recognition by McCain that there are lot of women up for grabs," said Ken Davis, a former GOP chairman in Montgomery County. "There are a lot of issues important to women besides [abortion], things like, child care and education."
"I think the things the Republicans have to worry about is the money Obama has to spend and ... their very impressive ground game," said Allegheny County Republican chairman Jim Roddey. "Republicans are trying to counter that, but there's no question Obama will have more volunteers on the ground."
