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Fantasy Football: Expect the unexpected
Tuesday, September 30, 2008

On Sunday, Larry Johnson carried his winless teammates to a stunning 33-19 pasting of the undefeated Broncos.

Last week, the Dolphins shocked the NFL by blistering the Patriots, 38-13, as Ronnie Brown served up a fantasy performance for the ages.

So why will we be astonished if Carson Palmer torches the Cowboys for five touchdowns in a lopsided upset next weekend?

They call it the NFL's Age of Parity, when anything can happen when you least expect it. Just ask the sizeable percentage of Brett Favre owners who left his six touchdown passes on their benches Sunday.

As much as we fantasy "gurus" would love to predict these seismic events with greater accuracy, we also know the unexpected is what makes this game we obsess over so exciting. And, yes, gut-wrenching.

I very nearly lost my own monumental upset this weekend, when one of my opponents dredged the free-agent pool for no fewer than five spare parts needed to fill his bye-week vacancies. You can imagine my bravado Sunday morning when I saw Michael Bush, Vincent Jackson, Matt Jones, Antwaan Randle El and Joe Nedney squaring off against my far superior roster, which was missing only Brian Westbrook from its regular arsenal.

Darned if that motley crew and Drew Brees didn't give me a run for my money. Alas, my squad had just enough firepower this week (thanks, LJ!), but a subpar outing could have spelled doom.

So don't beat yourself up if Favre or Matt Schaub or Jake Delhomme wasted away on your bench this weekend. It could always be worse. You could be Scott Linehan, who lost his head coaching job today after benching Marc Bulger!

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

To win a fantasy championship, you need to start with a good draft. But filling in your roster throughout the season with the right free agents is also important. Here's a look at a few players worth considering, and others who would look better in someone else's line-up.

Catch 'em while you can

Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: Dropped from fantasy owners like a hot potato after his miserable opener against the Giants, Campbell has shown steady improvement over the last three weeks. His confidence-building win in Dallas suggests even better days lie ahead -- particularly with the Eagles (who just surrendered three touchdowns to Kyle Orton), Rams, Browns and Lions on the docket over the next four weeks. Campbell is also the only quarterback with 50-plus passing attempts who has yet to be picked off this season.

Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints: He's baaaaack. Running strong between the tackles for 73 yards and a score on 20 carries, McAllister signaled he is once again roster-worthy. Pierre Thomas had carried the load well as a change-of-pace running mate with Reggie Bush. But now that Deuce is loose again, Thomas is on the back burner. McAllister can't be counted on to stay injury-free the rest of the season; but while he's healthy, he's a viable flex or bye-week option.

Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, WR, Seahawks: This is probably your last chance to grab them if they're still available. Neither has stepped foot on the field this season, but each will immediately return to the starting lineup in Week 5 if they are as healthy as advertised. Though it may take them a week or two to get back in rhythm with Matt Hasselbeck, they've both been around long enough to contribute right away.

Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals: Anquan Boldin's helmet-to-helmet blow looked frightening, and seems likely to keep him sidelined for a while. Breaston was in sync with Kurt Warner long before Boldin's injury, and was stopped just shy of the goal-line on two of his nine receptions (for 122 yards) Sunday. He should see even more action as a temporary starter.

Don't be fooled

Brady Quinn, QB, Browns: Derek Anderson may have salvaged another start after directing his team to its first victory over the hapless Bengals. But let's be real; he's on borrowed time. Before you rush to acquire his heir apparent, though, take a gander at Cleveland's schedule following their Week 5 bye: Giants, Redskins, Jaguars and Ravens. The young gun won't be a viable fantasy starter any time soon.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans: His eight-catch, 76-yard, two-touchdown afternoon had the look of a coming-out party for the six-year veteran. But it's hard to get too excited about the No. 2 wide receiver in this offense. Both Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are more consistent contributors, and Steve Slaton has proven his worth in the passing game as well. Most importantly, though Matt Schaub finally looked sharp Sunday, he still battles inconsistency. Walter isn't the worst bye-week fill-in option, but don't break the bank to get him.

Cowboys defense: On paper, this unit should be among the elites. But after four weeks, it's falling far short of its potential. A secondary bolstered by the arrival of Adam "Pacman" Jones and first-round pick Mike Jenkins has yet to pick off a single pass. Aside from a Felix Jones kick-return score in Week 2, its special teams aren't helping either. A favorable schedule approaches, but the team from Big D should be benched until it starts playing better D.

First published on September 30, 2008 at 5:07 am