Stores may still look festive this holiday season but they'll likely be less crammed with merchandise as retailers brace for what two research groups are separately predicting could be the weakest Christmas sales season in 17 years.

TNS Retail Forward, in Columbus, Ohio, is forecasting fourth-quarter sales growth of 1.5 percent over the same period last year, the smallest increase since a 1.2 percent gain posted back in 1991 when the first George Bush was president and Katie Couric landed a job as a co-host on NBC's "Today" show.

Deloitte Research, which runs the numbers a bit differently, is seeing a similar scenario. The company's retail group projects holiday sales, excluding cars and fuel, will rise between 2.5 and 3 percent during the November to January period. That, the group said, would be one of the smallest gains since 1991's 2 percent sales increase.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation last week reported cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports should drop 6 percent this year. Merchants often bring goods into the country on container ships.

"Retailers are tightening up their inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season," said Jonathan Gold, the Washington, D.C.-based industry organization's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a prepared statement, although he indicated the retail group still expects to see an increase in sales this year.

Keeping inventories in check has been an ongoing theme in recent months as retailers discuss earnings results with analysts. At this point, the Deloitte team said many are well-positioned with low inventory-to-sales ratios and other costs under control.

The holiday sales season is, for many companies, the most important time of the year because that's when consumers are generally most willing to open their wallets and buy gifts. Stores with the right amount of goods don't have to cut into profits by filling clearance racks later.

But weakness in back-to-school sales did not bolster confidence in consumers' ability to keep spending as they cope with high gas prices, falling home values and rising food costs. Credit rating firm Fitch Ratings yesterday cited the late summer/early fall results as it, too, projected weak holiday sales.

Fitch's retail team estimated sales growth could be similar to the 2002 holiday season when sales grew 1.3 percent, by National Retail Federation calculations. The ratings firm predicted consumers will see plenty of aggressive promotions designed to get their attention.

The stakes are particularly high because tightening credit markets have given stores less leeway. Already, chains such as Boscov's, Steve & Barry's and Linens 'n Things have sought bankruptcy protection.

More retailers could be forced to go that route if they don't get consumers into their stores. "I think this holiday season is going to weed out some of the less strong entities," said a participant in a recent panel discussion organized by the American Bankruptcy Institute, based in Alexandria, Va.

Clothing and home goods retailers may have the chilliest season while supercenters and warehouse clubs benefits from shoppers' efforts to cut costs and reduce driving. Consumer electronics retailers could see a 4 percent sales gain as customers prepare to convert to digital television signals, according to the Retail Forward forecast.

That group sees online sales growing 9 percent, which would be a solid gain but also would mark the first time in almost a decade that sales over the Internet didn't see a double-digit increase.