HARRISBURG -- On his nightly MSNBC talk show called "Hardball," host Chris Matthews yaks incessantly about all sorts of things political.

But when asked if he might run in 2010 as the Democratic challenger to longtime Republican U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, the Philadelphia-area native hasn't had much to say.

Even though Mr. Matthews generally dodges the question, several state political observers have mentioned him, in recent news stories, as a potential Democratic candidate.

And in a Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday, the former newspaper reporter and presidential speech writer trailed Mr. Specter by only a five-point margin, 41 percent to 36 percent. Mr. Matthews actually led the incumbent in the state's two most populous counties, Allegheny and Philadelphia. The poll's margin of error was +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Among those Democrats polled, Mr. Matthews led 56 percent to 24 percent. But among GOP voters, the incumbent led by a hefty 63 percent to 16 percent. He also led by 44 percent to 27 percent among independents.

"Sen. Specter remains the most respected statewide public official in Pennsylvania," said Quinnipiac pollster Clay Richards, "but his age [78] and health problems could make him vulnerable to a challenge from Hardball's Chris Matthews."

He said that while Mr. Specter leads by five points overall in the "theoretical match-up, there is a large undecided vote, and many voters don't know enough about Matthews to have an opinion."

Although the cancer that has plagued Mr. Specter in the past has recurred, he has received treatments for it and insists he's healthy enough to seek another six-year term in 2010.

Mr. Matthews couldn't be reached yesterday at MSNBC studios in New York City, but another respected pollster, G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said he and colleague Michael Young wrote several weeks ago about a possible Matthews Senate candidacy "and we concluded he would probably run."

"His contract at MSNBC is up in 2009, and Chris spent an extraordinary amount of time in Pennsylvania before the Democratic presidential primary in April," where Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama, Mr Madonna said. "I think he's testing the political waters. When asked [by various reporters], he hasn't ruled out running. He hasn't taken it off the table."

Gov. Ed Rendell, in Pittsburgh yesterday, said Mr. Matthews has to decide whether he can give up the fame, money and celebrity that comes with his television show for the "gritty part of politics" that he once knew as a U.S. House staffer.

"Would Chris be the strongest Democrat ... on the board right now? Probably, because of his celebrity and knowledge of politics," Mr. Rendell said. "But he has a lifestyle decision to make, first and foremost."

Unlike the governor's race in 2010, where several major Democratic office holders are said to be interested, there haven't been many Democrats mentioned as possible opponents to the tenacious Mr. Specter.

State Democratic party spokesman Abe Amoros said he's been working hard on the current presidential campaign and therefore hasn't heard much speculation about Senate candidates for 2010.

But he added that Mr. Matthews "certainly presents a very interesting scenario, given his appeal and his knowledge of Washington."

Mr. Madonna said he's heard of two other possible Democratic challengers to Mr. Specter, U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz and state Rep. Josh Shapiro, both from the Philadelphia area.

Mr. Matthews has a long history in politics and journalism. Before becoming a TV talk show host, he spent 15 years as a newspaper journalist, most as Washington bureau chief for a San Francisco newspaper. Before that, he worked for 15 years in politics as a speech writer for President Jimmy Carter and top aide to former U.S. Rep. Tip O'Neill of Massachusetts.

Three years ago Mr. Matthews received the annual award of the prestigious Pennsylvania Society, a group of leading business and political leaders that meets each December in New York City.

Mr. Matthews is a native of the Philadelphia area and is the brother of Montgomery County Commissioner Jim Matthews, who ran unsuccessfully in 2006 as the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor on a ticket with Lynn Swann.

In the new Quinnipiac Poll, Chris Matthews did well in the state's two largest counties. He got support from 45 percent of the respondents in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties, compared to Mr. Specter's 32 percent in Philadelphia and 38 percent in Allegheny. However, Mr. Specter led the talk show host in other areas of the state.

Mr. Matthews was viewed favorably by 28 percent of those polled, and negatively by 15 percent. The vast majority, 57 percent, either said they hadn't heard enough about him or had no opinion.

Incumbent Specter scored well on favorability ratings, with 55 percent favorable and 26 percent negative. The poll of 1,580 Pennsylvania voters was taken from July 30 to Aug. 3.