While Paul Meyer covers the team in Cincinnati and Milwaukee this week, we still take your Qs . . .
Q: Just a quick question, Dejan: How bad is a starting rotation when Paul Maholm is leading the staff in strikeouts?
Jeff Kost of Colorado Springs, Colo.
KOVACEVIC: Well, first, giving credit where due, Maholm's strikeouts -- 65 in 103 innings -- are a bit ahead of last year's pace, in large part because of a couple of surprisingly high game totals. He hardly has lived up to the advance billing I bestowed upon him in spring training as a breakout player for 2008, but he has done some good things in going 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA. For sure, management seems more satisfied with his overall pitching than that of anyone else on the staff.
But sure, Jeff, your point stands, if only because Maholm's strikeout total projects to the staff leader having 130 by season's end. In this decade, the Pirates' strikeout leaders have been Kris Benson (184 in 2000), Todd Ritchie (124), Kip Wells (134), Wells (147), Oliver Perez (239), Wells (132), Ian Snell (169) and Snell again last year (177).
Which tells you that 130 would be low even on a losing team.
Which also tells you that the Pirates need to get more strikeouts onto the staff, because the number of balls that get put into play off this group places way too much emphasis on defense -- and luck -- in determining the number of runs allowed.
Q: With Matt Capps struggling, maybe it's a good idea to try Damaso Marte as closer. That could boost his trade value and possibly net a better return, or is there not enough time before the trade deadline to make a difference?
Joshua Britton of Rochester, N.Y.
KOVACEVIC: Argh. Got a few of these.
A closer's life is a lonely life.
Sure, Marte's value could get a boost in the closer's role, if he were to succeed. But what would that do to Capps' confidence, no matter the reason given?
Capps has had a bad month, no question. His fastball has been a little flat, and his breaking pitches are not nearly advanced enough to allow him to lean on other material when that happens. Most of the mail I get is about velocity, and keeping that at 93-94 consistently will be important. But make no mistake: What is going to turn Capps into a truly special closer will be getting better command of his changeup and that slider he no longer seems to throw much. The changeup to Griffey actually was not terrible, judging by the video, but Junior's swing happens to run right through that zone. It was mostly down, had decent break.
Bear in mind that Capps was a starter in the low minors but was quickly converted to relief. As a result, he became a two-pitch guy as a 20-year-old, which most baseball people will tell you was a mistake. What previous management should have done is what current management is doing with Danny Moskos: Let him start, even if he projects as a reliever, because it builds arm durability and forces a wider repertoire.
Too late for that now, though. Capps will have to learn at this level.
Q: Dejan, there is quite a bit of research out about batting the pitcher eighth.
Baseball Prospectus did an article about it when the Brewers were toying with it during spring training.
Here's another reference from The Hardball Times.
"'The Book' endorses another off-beat strategy: the second leadoff hitter. Here is what 'The Book' Says: 'The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year.' You gain more by having a good hitter bat directly before your top hitters than you lose by giving your pitcher a few more plate appearances each year. I'm not talking about Jason Marquis or Dontrelle Willis. I'm talking about your bad-hitting pitchers. Move them up a spot. In fact, this strategic guideline argues AGAINST moving Marquis and Willis up in the order. A couple of extra runs doesn't sound like a lot, but, if you follow these guidelines, you could gain 10-15 runs over a full season. About a win a year. And it wouldn't cost you anything except grief from your local media."
John Russell certainly does not appear to be a true stat-head, but I do think it's telling that the front office now employs a former writer for Baseball Prospectus and several roster positions were determined by looking at data, not just getting a feel for the player.
If nothing else, Russell is trying something. I know the offense isn't the problem right now, but that's something he can do. He can't fix the pitching by moving the mound. He can try to add a few extra runs by toying with the lineup.
Patrick McClintock-Comeaux of Upper St. Clair
KOVACEVIC: Others chimed in, too . . .
Q: Hey, Dejan. I'm guessing you'll get this link a number of times. It's an excellent (and easy to understand) analysis of optimal lineups. The money part is the description of what each hitter in the lineup should ideally be. Here's the description for the No. 8 hitter:
"8. This is the worst hitter in the lineup. If it's the pitcher, he goes here, unless it's Dontrelle Willis or Jason Marquis or someone similar. This is because you'd rather not put the pitcher close to two of the best hitters in the lineup, the 1 and 2."
I guess my question is for some readers: Is this so hard to understand? Suppose the masses convince J.R. to bat Freddy Sanchez eighth and Nate McLouth leadoff. Nate bats first and 10th and 19th and 28th. Most of the time, the best hitter follows the worst two hitters in the lineup. A graph would work really well: A traditional lineup has the extreme low followed by the extreme high. And, statistically, that's simply not the optimal lineup construction.
There are other considerations, such as a manager perhaps having to make his pinch-hit-or-keep-the-starter-in decision one inning sooner sometimes but, over time, batting the pitcher eighth and someone with on-base skills ninth (and 18th and 27th, etc.) produces more runs.
Andrew Zibuck of Rochester, N.Y.
KOVACEVIC: One more . . .
Q: I would like to remind Pirates fans who questioned the pitcher batting eighth that Jack Wilson, batting ninth, led off three times Monday night. Not a terrible strategy.
Larry Schnepp of Bowie, Md.
KOVACEVIC: Amazing how the tide turned on that topic in 24 hours.
My stance remains that I need more evidence of one or the other. The best argument I have heard in favor so far is that this is a really good idea for the Cardinals because of Albert Pujols' place at No. 3 in the order. He is guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning, and he has more people aboard his next few times up, in theory. Sounds great.
I also like that many of the optimal lineups spit out by computers show the pitcher at No. 8. That makes it compelling. But one would think such calculations simply must take into account individual strengths and weaknesses on a nightly basis, or else you can produce the kind of math that shows Tike Redman should bat third.
What I found most interesting about Russell's decision was that he seemed to base it largely on his No. 7 hitter, Doug Mientkiewicz, showing good patience. There are very easy pros and cons to be made right there, and it is not an issue that is raised in any of the above links.
Q: Saw the note by Jesse Weidaw of Bethel Park regarding fans entering or leaving seats during play and wanted to pass on my observations: This is not just a problem with fans, but with the horrible ushers. The ushers in and around my section, 27, are actually seating people DURING play. Including the wiping of seats and waiting for tips.
I agree that it is difficult to halt the paying customer, but surely the ushers should not be encouraging the practice or aiding it. I have seen this at all seven games I have attended. I was so upset by missing large chunks of the Yankees games that I spoke with the usher and emailed my ticket rep. No reply.
Tom Hooper of Altoona
KOVACEVIC: Most of the mail reflected your view, Tom. There were dissenters, too . . .
Q: Dejan, I was at the Wednesday Pirates-Yankees game in Section 307 and the guy behind me was a loud, drunken mess. Midway through the game, he was yelling obscene things at nearby Yankees fans. The usher came down and yelled, "You're outta here!" And escorted him away. No security guards, just the usher. Not sure where he took the guy, but never saw him again. Made my day!
Second, I had a 20-game plan for a couple years and dropped it this year because of my changed work schedule. I still see almost as many games but buy on a game-to-game basis now. I got a card from the Pirates this past week telling me that, even though I am no longer a plan holder, I am still part of the "family" and, if I call, they will give me a free seat to a game. What a wonderful touch!
Conversely, I had a 20-game plan in the first season of PNC Park and dropped it after my section went from a $9 seat to a $16 seat. No one ever called. No one asked why. Nothing.
Enjoy your articles, Q&A and chats. Keep up the wonderful reporting.
Rich Campbell of Coraopolis
KOVACEVIC: I spoke my piece on this topic yesterday, but I will add this today: Just as I pointed out that many people in baseball operations were retained from previous management, the same is true of many of those in ticket sales and customer service. Which means that, in large part, the people you praise now are the same ones who ignored you a couple years back, only they are much more motivated now to do better.
Until tomorrow . . .