Summer has barely started and it's now time to think about the fall. Despite a flat economy and a spate of studies claiming reading is in trouble, the autumn-winter releases this year appear to be both substantial and plentiful.

This is the first in a series of reports on the books in our future. Along with the fiction and nonfiction categories, I'm adding a third this year -- touted first fiction. Publishers who have bet big on new authors promote them heavily. I'll start with them:

"Train to Trieste" by Dominica Radulescu. Knopf, $23.95). August. Romania under communism is rough on romance.

"The Lace Reader" by Brunonia Barry. (Morrow, $24.95) August. Underground self-published novel about eccentrics in Salem, Mass., goes mainstream.

"The Heretic's Daughter" by Kathleen Kent. (Little, Brown, $24.99). September. More Salem eccentrics, these are Colonial-era witches and kin to the author.

"The Good Thief" by Hannah Tinti (Dial Press, $25). August. Tinti, a native of Salem, Mass., (there's a theme developing here), crafts the life of a New England orphan who encounters criminals and grave-robbers.

"The White Mary" by Kira Salak (Holt, $25). August. War correspondent hunts a Conrad-like figure in New Guinea.

"The Little Giant of Aberdeen County" by Tiffany Baker (Grand Central, $24.99). January. Truly (the title character) is a larger-than-usual woman coming of age in upstate New York.

"A Cure for the Night" by Justin Peacock (Doubleday, $24.95) September. Racial issues fire up Brooklyn over a murder trial as a young public defender faces the music.

I'll track these debuts as they land with a splash or a thud.

"Just After Sunset" by Stephen King. (Scribner, $28). November. It doesn't seem possible, but King writes short stories.

"Indignation" by Philip Roth. (Houghton Mifflin, $26) September. Young Newark Jewish lad flees to Midwest for college during Korean War.

"Death With Interruptions" by Jose Saramago (Harcourt, $24) October. The author of "Blindness" returns with a new allegorical work.

"For the Love of Murphy's: The Behind-the-Counter Story of a Great American Retailer" by Jason Togyer (Penn State University Press, $34.95) November. In Western Pennsylvania, when you said, "the five and 10," you meant G. C. Murphy's. Togyer, a University of Pittsburgh editor, retells the ups and downs of the McKeesport-headquartered chain store that once dominated our region.

"The Fallingwater Cookbook: Elsie Henderson's Recipes and Memories" by Suzanne Martinson, Jane Citron and Robert Sendall. (University of Pittsburgh Press, $29.95). September. A team of food writers -- Martinson is retired food editor of the Post-Gazette, the late Citron wrote many freelance food articles and Sendall owns All in Good Taste Productions -- worked on the recipes supplied by the Kaufmanns' cook. The result is an account of life at the most famous house in America.

"Nickelodeon City: Pittsburgh at the Movies: 1905-1929" by Michael Aronson. (University of Pittsburgh Press, $35.95) September. The Smoky City loved the flickers, writers Arsonson, a University of Oregon professor who charts the movie industry here from the John P. Harris theater on Smithfield Street to the dawn of the talkies.

"Called Out of Darkness: A Spiritual Confession" by Anne Rice (Knopf, $23.95). October. The author of vampire and S&M novels tells how her 38 years as an atheist ended as she returned to the church.

"Growing Up With Clemente" by Richard Peterson. (Kent State University Press, $18) January. A retired English professor at Southern Illinois University, Peterson is a South Side native who came of age in the 1950s, enamored of baseball and the Pirates' star. Here is his side of the story.