Have you heard of "peak oil"? If you are appalled at $4-a-gallon gasoline, you ain't seen nothing yet......

For Pittsburgh, the peak-oil crisis is likely to have a profound impact upon the "ed-med" economy (higher education and medical institutions) that this region is betting on.

This comes from Dan Bednarz, Pittsburgh's Paul Revere on the subject. Mr. Bednarz, an energy consultant, has been busy explaining peak oil and its ramifications through books, articles and seminar presentations since 2005.

"Peak oil" refers to the point at which a nation -- or the world -- has pumped more than half of its potential oil. Mr. Bednarz amplifies: "The world supply of oil is peaking, meaning we are running short of supply as rising economies like China and India are increasing consumption." Oil production peaked in the United States in 1970, in Europe's North Sea in 1999 and in Mexico in 2004.

Oil soon may peak even in Russia, Mr. Bednarz believes, with uncertainties about future production in the voluminous fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran.

He says that his work in the University of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health made him realize how much our health-care industry relies on great amounts of energy. Hospitals almost constantly use numerous types of medical equipment and they always need to be lighted and either air conditioned or heated. As energy supplies dwindle and costs rise, will hospital systems have to curtail or abandon energy-gulping technologies that form the basis of the biotech future of health-care centers such as Pittsburgh?

Similarly, Mr. Bednarz points out, the research on technologies that have made Carnegie Mellon University a major asset for Pittsburgh will face energy-supply problems when peak oil really begins to hit.

As on the question of global warning, there are experts pro and con as to the severity of the problem. But I'm inclined to pay attention, based on an experience back in 1972 when I attended a Gulf Oil Corp. briefing in New Orleans where an elderly geologist asserted that U.S. production had peaked. I dismissed the declaration as just more oil company propaganda to obtain additional tax breaks. But the geologist was right, and I was wrong.

That's why I don't dismiss warnings from Mr. Bednarz, a Detroit native and a Pittsburgher since 1980 who earned a Ph.D. from Pitt's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.

You may ask: What about substitutes? Nuclear energy undoubtedly will move to the fore, despite concerns about its toxicity and the disposal of nuclear wastes. But like most alternatives, it does not provide easily portable energy for vehicles in the way fossil fuels do. Mr. Bednarz's take: "You can't fly a plane on nuclear."

What about coal or natural gas? Despite talk of great reserves, Mr. Bednarz says that the costs of mining coal ever deeper, not to mention the environmental effects of burning the stuff, suggest that coal is not a long-term answer. He points to five separate studies done in 2007 that showed "a vast overestimation" about world coal reserves. Natural gas is also rising in price (up 31 percent in April).

Other alternatives, such as biofuels? Ethanol is doomed, Mr. Bednarz says, because it is driving up the costs of food. "All of the corn produced in America would give us only 12 percent of fuel we use," he contends.

Wind and solar energy? Mr. Bednarz smiles: "The left likes them; just as the right likes coal and nuclear." More research is needed, as there is "nothing on the immediate horizon of the scale needed to replace oil."

Biofuels provide just 1 percent of America's needs; wind 0.4 percent, and solar 0.1 percent. While there is hope for the long run, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that none of these fuels will grow significantly between now and 2030.

How might peak oil affect Pittsburgh's future? In ethnic and class relations, the big question, according to Mr. Bednarz, is "how to share a smaller economic pie." He sees an in-migration to Pittsburgh from drought-stricken and overpopulated areas in the Southwest and Southeast, a boon or bane depending on how this influx is handled.

A major asset for southwestern Pennsylvania is its abundant water -- all the more reason to clean up acid mine drainage and other pollutants.

In health care, Mr. Bednarz believes there will be fewer hospitals, shorter stays, with the emphasis shifting away from doctors to nurses and prevention. Also, energy-demanding enterprises, whether Pittsburgh's old industries or the newer high-tech ventures on which Pittsburgh and its academic institutions are placing so much hope, will be affected by peak oil.

Other predictions: Suburbs will decline or be radically transformed. Living near mass transit will be paramount. Gainers: electric mass transit and railroads for passenger travel as well as freight (our position as a rail hub is a great asset). Agriculture will become a source of employment growth.

To me, all of this suggests that Pittsburgh's leadership -- governmental, political, educational, medical, commercial -- had better be thinking about peak oil to avoid being caught off guard as it was 30 years ago with the collapse of the steel industry.