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Clinton's future lies in rules committee decision
Tuesday, May 27, 2008

It could be the Clinton campaign's final stand.

On Saturday, 30 members of the Democratic National Committee will meet at a Washington, D.C., hotel to decide how to handle the disputed Michigan and Florida presidential primary votes -- which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York won by significant margins.

But both states held their elections in January, violating DNC rules. In response, the party stripped all of their delegates to the national convention in Denver this August.

Mrs. Clinton and her rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, accepted the decision. Neither candidate campaigned in the states prior to the January votes, and Mr. Obama had his name removed from the Michigan ballot.

Now, with the primary season nearing its end and Mr. Obama maintaining a sizable lead in the delegate count in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, the Clinton camp is arguing that the party should reverse its decision and give Michigan and Florida their full slates.

The candidate herself is calling it a matter of justice.

"Here in Florida, more than 1.7 million people cast their vote, the highest primary turnout in the history of Florida. And nearly 600,000 voters in Michigan did the same," Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Boca Raton, Fla., last week. "I believe the Democratic Party must count these votes. They should count them exactly as they were cast. Democracy demands no less."

If the party gives Mrs. Clinton what she wants, she'd get 105 delegates from Florida and as many as 73 delegates from Michigan. Mr. Obama would get at least 67 from Florida and 55 from Michigan, if he receives all of the state's "uncommitted" votes.

That alone won't be enough for Mrs. Clinton to pull ahead in the delegate count. But the boost from Florida and Michigan, two key swing states in the November general election, may help her convince some unpledged superdelegates -- elected officials and party leaders who can back any candidate, regardless of the primary outcomes in their respective states -- that she, not Mr. Obama, has the best chance to beat Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee.

The Obama campaign is hoping for a compromise that would allow the states to seat at least some of their delegates at the convention.

Both campaigns will be able to make their case before the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee this weekend, and at least 13 of the panel's 30 members are Clinton supporters, including Harold Ickes, a top adviser to the former first lady's campaign.

Last week, Mr. Ickes didn't seem interested in a compromise.

"Our view is the full delegation with full votes each," he said, according to The Washington Post.

There are at least eight Obama supporters on the rules committee.

Donald Fowler, a former DNC chairman and a member of the committee, said his support for Mrs. Clinton will be a "major, major consideration" when he decides how to vote, although it won't be the only factor.

Allan Katz, a member from Tallahassee, Fla., and an Obama backer, said most members would be wary about swaying the results of the overall primary battle between the two candidates.

"A number believe we can't afford to make a decision that would have larger ramifications," he said.

Mr. Katz thinks the best approach would be to split the delegates between the two candidates, a plan that -- not surprisingly -- the Obama campaign favors.

"There's no question that both states violated the rules. There's no question some penalty is appropriate," he said. "At the same time, there's a strong desire in the party to have some participation by Florida and Michigan at the convention."

Last year, dozens of states tried to jump ahead in the primary calendar to challenge the huge influence of the first-in-the-nation contests -- the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

But the DNC permitted only two states to move into January: Nevada and South Carolina. All others were instructed to hold their contests no earlier than Feb. 5.

In Florida, however, the Republican-controlled legislature set the state's primary for Jan. 29. In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm backed a Jan. 15 primary.

The rules committee, at meetings in August and December, decided they had to act decisively to prevent a stampede of states from moving their elections forward. Both New Hampshire and Iowa, intent on staying at the front of the pack, began threatening to move their elections into 2007.

Almost the entire committee, including both Clinton and Obama backers, voted to take all delegates away from Michigan and Florida.

"It was a shot across the bow," Mr. Katz said.

Still, the elections took place. Mrs. Clinton easily defeated Mr. Obama in Florida, 50 percent to 33 percent, with former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina picking up 14 percent. In Michigan, she won 55 percent of the vote. But 40 percent of voters were "uncommitted."

At the time, few political observers thought the race for the Democratic nomination would stretch until the final primaries in June. But with Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama locked in a tight delegate fight, the importance of Michigan and Florida quickly grew.

In March, Jon M. Ausman, a DNC member from Florida, filed a challenge to the rules committee's decision, citing party regulations that said a 50 percent delegate cut was the approved penalty. Also, he argued, the state's 25 uncommitted superdelegates shouldn't have been taken away.

"You can't give Florida the death penalty," said Mr. Ausman, a graduate of Allegheny College and a longtime Florida political operative who lives in Tallahassee.

Mr. Ausman's proposed remedy is for the rules committee to give Florida its superdelegates and at least 92 pledged delegates, nearly half of its full slate of 185.

This summer, when the Convention Credentials Committee meets in Denver, he would try to get the full slate.

A former supporter of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Mr. Ausman said he isn't taking sides in the Clinton-Obama fight.

"This is just about getting representation," he said.

The Michigan Democratic Party is asking the rules committee to seat its entire 157-member delegation, including 29 superdelegates and 128 pledged delegates.

State party chairman Mark Brewer, who is also a member of the rules committee, has asked his fellow committee members to consider a compromise, giving 59 pledged delegates to Mr. Obama and 69 to Mrs. Clinton.

The committee's meeting, open to the public, starts at 9:30 a.m. Saturday in the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in northwest Washington, D.C.

Representatives from the Michigan and Florida Democratic parties will have 15 minutes each to present arguments to the committee, followed by 10-minute question-and-answer sessions. Then the Obama and Clinton campaigns will have the same opportunity.

In the afternoon, the committee will hold a public debate. Members are expected to vote on a solution before they adjourn.

The meeting room can hold several hundred people, and both campaigns are expected to have supporters there. But "banners, posters, signs, handouts and noisemakers of any kind are strictly prohibited," the DNC says.

Jerome L. Sherman can be reached at jsherman@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1183.
First published on May 27, 2008 at 12:00 am
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