The worst of Pennsylvania's housing woes may be yet to come, according to economists at the Keystone Research Center in Harrisburg who say recent trends in housing prices across the state would suggest larger declines lie ahead.

Housing price declines in addition to rising unemployment in the state raise the risk of more mortgage delinquencies and home foreclosures, KRC researchers said yesterday.

"The two factors nationwide that drive foreclosures are falling home prices and rising unemployment," said Mark Price a labor economist with KRC. "Pennsylvania seems to be following a national trend, but with a lag."

Declining real estate values often follow the loss of jobs in a region. According to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, unemployment in Pennsylvania rose 47,000 between April of last year and April 2008.

Mr. Price said the Freddie Mac index for Pennsylvania showed the first actual decline in housing prices over a 12-month period since 1995. Pennsylvania housing prices fell 1.3 percent between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2008.

Before this most recent data, Pennsylvania home prices were growing each year, but progressively more slowly. The Freddie Mac data show a decline that mirrors a national pattern.

"The decline is very modest," Mr. Price said. "I wouldn't bat an eye at 1.3 percent. But what we are worried about is that those decreases will get larger."