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Pirates Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic
Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Click here to submit your question

It is early afternoon as I type this from a mostly empty PNC Park, another beautiful day in Pittsburgh and, in theory, somewhere else, it probably feels like a tremendous day for baseball.

Not here.

Very few will come tonight, maybe even fewer than last night given the election. And, no doubt, the number watching at home will dwindle, too, with each terrible performance the team gives on the field.

As I type, Brian Bixler is out at shortstop taking extra grounders from infield instructor Tony Beasley, and a couple grounds crew guys are fixing up the dirt.

It all has a very Eleanor Rigby feel to it.




Q: Hi, Dejan, I saw Matt Morris on Monday night, and I have to say, honestly, in my 58 years, have never seen a more dejected professional baseball player. From an analytic standpoint, the term "loss of confidence" in the dictionary has Morris' picture by it. From a human standpoint, I really feel for the guy.

He seems honest and straight up, and that says an awful lot about his character. I hope he finds some answers and doesn't give up. And yes - the next time he pitches - there will be at least one Pirate fan - me - cheering like crazy for him.

Do you think he can turn it around?

Scott Dragan of Franklin Park

KOVACEVIC: Let me preface, Scott, by saying that your response was anything but representative of the continuing mountains of Morris mail that kept coming yesterday, most of it, as expected, continuing the theme of buyout, banishment to the bullpen and all that.

Since we went over that in detail already, though, yours was the one that leaped out of the pile, particularly because of your first-hand observation from being one of the 2,000 or so actually at the ballpark that night.

Morris hardly strikes a sympathetic figure. He makes an unimaginable amount of money, he is performing very poorly, and he is costing the Pirates games. But one perception that should not take root -- only because it would be wholly inaccurate -- is that he does not care or that he is out to collect his paycheck. This was an elite pitcher not so long ago, one who remains the third-winningest of this decade, and he probably did not achieve that level by being a money-grubber. Nor did he likely come back from surgery simply to play out the string.

To repeat, I am not coming close to suggesting here that Morris should appear to anyone a sympathetic figure. We should all be extremely fortunate to make $10 million this year doing anything. Nor am I coming close to criticizing anyone who wants him gone, sent to long relief or demoted. His performance certainly warrants it.

Just taking care to portray this one aspect accurately.




Q: While I will attend the game Tuesday night only because it is part of my ticket plan, I feel this is the most difficult moment I have experienced as a Pirates fan since the Aramis Ramirez trade. When I turned on the TV yesterday and heard that a high-priced player was released, I assumed it had to be Morris, only to find out that Frank Thomas was cut. If the Blue Jays are willing to eat salary, why can't we?

I decided to remove any emotion and attempt to use statistical data to analyze Morris. While comparing a pitcher and position player is never easy, a few statistics make it possible. I will focus only on NL statistics since the AL traditionally generates more offense.

Since there is a movement among fans to replace Morris with basically anyone, I decided the first statistic to examine would be his Value Over Replacement Player which is minus-12.6, worst in the NL. This indicates that there is no pitcher in the NL more replaceable than him (even worse than Evan Meek who is at minus-6.5). This is not a new trend for Morris whose VORP as a Pirate last year was minus-3.0. I wanted to eliminate the awful Pirates defense as a factor so I checked Morris' DIPS, which measures his effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders. Morris ranks next-to-last in the NL in DIPS out of pitchers with more than 20 innings.

In traditional statistics: Morris also leads the NL in most earned runs allowed with 21. His ERA ranks last, and he has yet to produce a quality start.

Morris' translated pitching statistics, projections based on the entire season, amount to a record of 5-13, a 7.06 ERA and an outrageous 11.5 hits per nine innings.

I realize it is not my $10 million, and I realize it is possible for his performance to improve. Yet I am trying to find a reason to support to take interest in a team who is basically forfeiting 20 percent of their games by starting Morris.

Anthony Fail of Brookline

KOVACEVIC: Indisputable, well conceived arguments, Anthony. And infinitely preferable to most of the ALL-CAPITAL letter, no-pride, bring-back-Littlefield-just-to-fire-him-again stuff I had to sift through to find yours.

In summation: Morris has been awful.




Q: Egad, Dejan. Seeing George Clooney get his fingernails ripped out in "Syriana" seems less upsetting than watching the Pirates lose and lose and lose.

How much longer can we all take this?

Jim Albertson of Norman, Okla.

KOVACEVIC: That is up to you and everyone else, Jim, though there were many, many notes like yours, including a few that no doubt failed to clear the A-word censors.

I get it, believe me. There is a reason I write every year that there cannot possibly be a fan base like this one in all of professional sports, to subscribe to a situation that -- particularly at this time of year, just as the pin is being pricked into whatever hope the spring might have brought -- looks so much the same as all those that came before it.

But I have been consistent with this all through the offseason, and I will repeat it: If you are looking at 2008, you are missing the point of what the new management team is eyeing.

I am sure that makes this terrible brand of baseball, particularly defensively, no easier to tolerate. And it certainly gives no snap shot of hope for the future, in and of itself. But that, at least according to the team, is the framework in which this is playing out. It matters to them much, much more what happens through specific player acquisitions regarding some of these players, how some of the current younger players progress, and how the minor leagues get built up into a genuinely competitive team, than anything that is out there right now.

As for Clooney, sorry ... my fingernails would have to first come out to watch anything he does.




Q: Hi, Dejan. With the continued slow start by Adam LaRoche, it seems to me that both the Pirates' interest in signing him to a long-term deal and his apparent refusal to consider that are both quite interesting in that maybe neither has much to gain.

Are the Pirates still looking to pursue the longer-term deal with LaRoche or could we see him traded instead of Jason Bay or Xavier Nady, who are both performing better?

Gary Smith of Louisville, Ky.

KOVACEVIC: First, Gary, I would underscore that deciding about long-term offers based on who is "performing better" in the short term is a sure way to bust the bank quickly. The Pirates need to determine who can stick around and make a legitimate long-term impact with little risk.

That said, nothing has changed since I wrote this. And that piece came before LaRoche went into another April nosedive.

As for neither side having much to gain, I might disagree with that. If you are the Pirates and you truly believe in LaRoche for the long term -- and they must have to have approached him with such an offer to begin with -- perhaps you think about striking again while he is feeling ... well, not all that great about himself. From the other side, if you are LaRoche, maybe you are beginning to wonder what kind of value is being damaged by this seemingly interminable history of poor starts, and that same offer made a month ago now looks a little better.

At any rate, no, nothing happening right now.

And, if I might add a somewhat conspiratorial (and perhaps just a tiny bit reckless) note here: It did not escape my attention that it was only a week or so ago that Neal Huntington sought to clarify that Steve Pearce would, in fact, continue playing first base at some point in his career. That sounded like a right-field-only proposition in the spring.

Taking it too far?

That is for you to decide.




Until tomorrow ...

First published on April 23, 2008 at 12:00 am
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