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Election 2008
Poll shows candidates' contrasting strengths
Sunday, April 20, 2008

East-west, old-young, black-white, Protestant-Catholic -- those are some of the marked and familiar divisions among Pennsylvania Democrats as they approach the state's crucial primary Tuesday

But alleys and ammo provided guides to political affinities as well.

A new poll of the state shows a close race and one that reflects similar divisions to those that have been recorded in previous stops on the Democrats' bumpy journey toward their Denver convention. In polling done Thursday and Friday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton held a narrow overall lead over her Democratic rival, but their contrasting regional and demographic strengths suggested that a close race could turn on the targeted turnout efforts of each of the campaigns.

Mrs. Clinton had the support of 48 percent of those surveyed compared to 43 percent for Mr. Obama. As in many earlier states, Mrs. Clinton showed particular strength among older voters -- a group that can be counted on to show up at the polls -- Western Pennsylvanians, Catholics, women and white voters.

And, yes, you can count bowlers and hunters in the New York senator's corner as well.

The candidates have gone out of their way to demonstrate their regular guy cred during their six weeks in Pennsylvania, with Mrs. Clinton downing a shot in one bar and Mr. Obama demonstrating his lack of prowess at bowling. Some of these less traditional political categories provided crucial margins for Mrs. Clinton. Hunters -- 16 percent of the total sample, favored Mrs. Clinton, 56 percent to 31 percent, while the two candidates were virtually tied among non-hunters.

The kegler cohort provided another decisive advantage for Mrs. Clinton. She was supported by 54 percent of those who said described themselves as bowlers. Non-bowlers, like non-hunters, were evenly divided between the Democrats.

Thirty-eight percent of the respondents said they owned a gun, and those voters were clinging to the Clinton candidacy by a margin of 53 percent to 28 percent. Mr. Obama, however, won a majority among non-gun owners, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Mr. Obama is fairly abstemious himself, he managed to tie Mrs. Clinton among beer drinkers -- 44 percent each. Non-beer drinkers, on the other hand, supported Mrs. Clinton, 50 percent to 43 percent.

The Pennsylvania results echo a gender gap that has recurred throughout the nomination battle. Mrs. Clinton led among women, 51 percent to 44 percent. Mr. Obama had a smaller advantage among male voters, 47 percent to 44 percent. Other strengths for the national front-runner were black voters, younger voters, Protestants and residents of the southeastern corner of the state.

Blacks favored Mr. Obama by the overwhelming margin of 83 percent to 10 percent. White voters broke almost two-to-one for Mrs. Clinton -- 58 percent to 33 percent.

Catholics were again a strength for Mrs. Clinton as they had been in earlier states such as Ohio. They favored her by a margin of 63 percent to 30 percent. Protestants went in the other direction, favoring Mr. Obama 60 percent to 31 percent.

Mr. Obama describes himself as a stalwart friend of Israel, but he has nonetheless been frustrated by repeated questions, in tandem with Internet-driven campaigns, questioning that commitment, and those questions appear to be reflected in the preferences of Jewish voters, who favored Mrs. Clinton, 73 percent to 17 percent. The number of Jewish respondents in the survey, 48 -- or 8 percent of the sample -- was small enough that it would be expected to have a large margin of error. Nonetheless, the difference in the finding was so lopsided that it signaled an unmistakable advantage for Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Obama had a major advantage, 61 percent to 35 percent among voters under 35, but Mrs. Clinton prevailed among voters between 35 and 49 -- 49 percent to 40 percent; and especially among those 50 and older, who favored her, 54 percent to 36 percent. Mrs. Clinton had the support of 51 percent of the voters who had a union member in their household, reflecting another traditional strength for her. She was also ahead among non-union households, but that difference, 47 percent to 43 percent was well within the margin of error of that subsample of the voters.

Mr. Obama heard the cheers of the largest crowd of the campaign Friday as 35,000 of his partisans jammed Independence Park in Philadelphia, and that showing underscored his strongest region, southeastern Pennsylvania, where he was ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. The rest of the state was Clinton country. She led in the Pittsburgh region, 52 percent to 39 percent, and by a similar margin in the balance of the state.

Fifty-four percent of the sample said they had seen last Wednesday's debate in Philadelphia, and a plurality of those viewers, 44 percent, thought that Mrs. Clinton had turned in the better performance while only 25 percent said Mr. Obama did better. Only 7 percent of the viewers said that the debate had influenced their vote, but if Mr. Obama were to lose by a very narrow margin Tuesday, the debate might be remembered as a significant influence in the result.

When asked to choose from a list of characteristics as the most important in determining their vote, 28 percent said they were looking for a candidate who cares about the issues they care about; 26 percent chose "change and a new approach," 20 percent chose experience, and 13 percent said they wanted a candidate who was honest and trustworthy.

Those who chose "experience,'' favored Mrs. Clinton, 91 percent to 4 percent. "Change'' voters went for Mr. Obama, 68 percent to 28 percent. For issue affinity, it was Clinton, 56 percent; Obama 32 percent; while those most interested in honesty broke for Mr. Obama, 49 percent to 36 percent.

As in virtually every other poll this year, the economy was cited most often as the most important issue in the race. Forty-seven percent cited the economy while only 18 percent cited the Iraq war, which was in second place.

The findings were based on Mason-Dixon's interviews with 625 likely voters in the Democratic primary conducted on April 17 and 18. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

First published on April 20, 2008 at 12:00 am
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