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Election 2008
Trail mix: Is extended race hurting Democrats?
Friday, April 11, 2008

Journalists love polls and close races. So you can imagine how giddy we all are over the latest Associated Press-Ipsos national survey yesterday showing Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates.

The thinking is that the extended Democratic primary campaign is creating divisions among supporters of Mr. Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee. But that's a long way off.

An AP-Ipsos poll in late February had Mr. Obama leading Mr. McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. Mr. McCain leads Mr. Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Mrs. Clinton led Mr. McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The new survey shows her with 48 percent support to Mr. McCain's 45 percent.

The Democratic contest is unchanged from February with Mr. Obama at 46 percent and Mrs. Clinton at 43 percent. But the heated primary is creating divisions among the electorate -- many supporters of Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton say they would rather vote for Mr. McCain if their chosen Democrat doesn't win the nomination.

Other stuff

Against Mr. McCain, Mr. Obama lost ground among women -- from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April.

He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less.

The gender gap has mostly disappeared, with Mrs. Clinton losing her advantage among women. In February, 51 percent of Democratic women supported her while 38 percent were for Mr. Obama. Now they're statistically tied at 44 percent for Mrs. Clinton, 42 percent for Mr. Obama.

The Democratic candidates are now statistically about even among households earning under $50,000. In late February, Mrs. Clinton led 54 percent to 37 percent, but now it is just 48 percent to 41 percent.

Mr. Obama now leads Mrs. Clinton among self-described moderate Democrats, 51 percent to 35 percent. Previously they were 45 percent Mrs. Clinton, 40 percent Mr. Obama.

The poll questioned lots of people and has a statistical margin of error that would make your head spin. Stay tuned.

So much for the suspense

Mr. Obama was having orange juice in a cafe in South Bend, Ind., yesterday when Trudy Manderfeld, a 60-year-old former pharmaceutical company worker, started ripping the current administration.

"I hope people realize that because of the damage that has been done, it's going to take more than one term to even start to turn it around," Ms. Manderfeld said.

"Yeah, exactly," Mr. Obama said with a chuckle. "Well, I'm looking for two."

"Are ya?" Ms. Manderfeld asked.

"But I'm going to start on that first one," Mr. Obama replied.

But it would be a labor of love

James P. Hoffa, the head of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, admitted yesterday to the Post-Gazette Editorial Board that now when he starts to talk about Mr. Obama, he can just about go on autopilot. He said he is campaigning for Mr. Obama, in part, because he has better credibility on his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

If Mr. Obama does win, and follows Mr. Hoffa's advice on labor issues, the Illinois Democrat is likely to experience writing cramps signing his name to reverse all of the anti-labor executive orders President Bush has enacted.

Political TV

Before next week's Democratic presidential candidates debate in Philadelphia, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama will participate in a live, 90-minute forum on faith issues airing Sunday at 8 p.m. on CNN from Messiah College near Harrisburg.

And for something a little different, Mr. Obama will talk basketball with Bryant Gumbel on HBO's "Real Sports" at 10 p.m. Tuesday.

Children will voice their opinions on election issues (the War in Iraq, terrorism, etc.) in "Nick News with Linda Ellerbee: Election Issues '08" (9 p.m. Sunday, Nickelodeon).

C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" (8:30 a.m. weekdays) will broadcast from various Pennsylvania locations beginning Tuesday, including a stop in Pittsburgh Wednesday for a discussion of energy and the environment. The C-SPAN Campaign 2008 college bus will make a stop at Duquesne University on Wednesday from 12-2 p.m. near Gumberg Library.

Mitt and McCain

Former Republican candidate Mitt Romney is still running -- perhaps for vice president this fall or the White House in 2012 or 2016.

Two months after bowing out of the race, the former Massachusetts governor was in Lancaster, Pa., yesterday, touting his new-found friend, Mr. McCain.

Mr. McCain will be coming to Pittsburgh on Tuesday to give a speech at Carnegie Mellon University and will headline a $1,000-a-ticket fund-raiser at the Omni William Penn.

First published on April 11, 2008 at 12:00 am