Chilled, worried consumers spent less time in the nation's malls last month, and American Eagle Outfitters has the numbers to prove it. As a result of slow sales and the need for more markdowns, the South Side teen retailer yesterday warned that its quarterly earnings would be lower than expected.
The shoppers who did show up were practical. The short list of merchandise that sold well during March included fleece, women's sweaters and men's jeans. Overall, sales in established stores fell 12 percent while total sales, including newly opened locations, dipped 2 percent.
Investors sent the American Eagle's shares down 31 cents, or 1.83 percent, to 16.62 after the retailer dropped its already conservative first-quarter guidance from 25 to 27 cents per share to 18 to 20 cents. Analysts had been looking for 26 cents a share, according to Thomson Financial Network.
But then the month was rough for many of the nation's merchants, according to an industry trade group that reported a 0.5 percent drop in comparable store sales at U.S. chain stores made it the weakest March since 1995.
There were some extenuating circumstances, said report by Michael P. Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers. The early Easter and one less shopping day in the month compared with last year could shift some sales into April.
The practical tendencies in evidence at American Eagle were seen throughout the retail industry. With prices at the pump rising and worries about jobs increasing, shoppers bought basics at discounters and wholesale clubs and snubbed mall-based chains' clothing, jewelry and furniture.
"The reality is that shoppers are stepping up their plans to cut back spending. So we'll likely see more of these weak retail numbers in the coming months," said Frank Badillo, senior economist at TNS Retail Forward, a consulting firm in Columbus, Ohio.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. were among the best performers. Wal-Mart raised its earnings outlook, noting that better inventory control helped to limit markdowns. But many others, including J.C. Penney Co., Gap Inc., and Limited Brands, reported sharp drops in sales.
"Discounters are going to continue to do well in this economy," said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. "Anything that is discretionary is going to continue to be under pressure."
The retail industry already had been bracing for a weak March because Easter landed two weeks earlier than last year, on March 23 when winter weather still gripped most of the country.
A deteriorating economy, soaring food and gasoline prices, limited credit and slumping home prices shook shoppers further. The Conference Board, a business-backed group, said late last month that consumers' outlook for the economy was the gloomiest in 35 years.
At the pump, the national average price of a gallon of gas rose 1.4 cents overnight to a record $3.357 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. With the peak summer driving season still to come and crude oil prices rising too, gas may reach the retail price of $4 a gallon that the Energy Department has been forecasting.
A sluggish job market is adding to worries. Yesterday, the Labor Department said applications for jobless benefits totaled 357,000 last week, down by 53,000 from the previous week. Even with the improvement, the four-week average for claims rose by 2,500 to 378,250, the highest level since early October 2005.
While many economists believe that the country is in a recession, the Bush administration says growth should revive this summer when 130 million households start spending their economic stimulus checks. Janet Hoffman, managing partner of the North American retail division of Accenture, and other analysts believe any sales lift at stores will be only temporary. And many believe that shoppers will use a chunk of the money to pay down debt.
Wal-Mart Stores reported a 0.7 percent gain in same-store sales. That was slightly below the 1.0 percent estimate by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.
The nation's largest retailer said food, consumables and electronics, such as video games and digital cameras, sold well. But cold weather hurt apparel, except for basics such as T-shirts. Home furnishings continued to be weak.
Rival Target Corp., which has been stumbling lately, posted a 4.4 percent decline in same-store sales. Analysts had expected a 2.7 percent decrease.
Many department stores and apparel chains suffered. J.C. Penney posted a larger-than-expected 12.3 percent sales decline. The department store retailer had warned late last month that same-store sales would be down at least 10 percent amid a souring economy.
Even high-end department stores such as Saks Inc., which operates Saks Fifth Avenue, and Nordstrom Inc. languished. Saks reported a 2.9 percent decline in same-store sales, worse than the 3.5 percent gain that Wall Street anticipated. Among the weakest areas at Saks were women's designer apparel and fine jewelry.