EmailEmail
PrintPrint
Baseball 2008: Could winning blow up the blueprint?
Success could stall Pirates' plan to peddle veterans for prospects
Sunday, March 30, 2008

BRADENTON, Fla. -- Final day of May.

The Pirates have just taken two from the St. Louis Cardinals to move a half-dozen games above .500.

First place.

Neal Huntington, relishing every minute of his rookie season as a general manager, smiles as he turns off the TV and sits at his big, oak desk at PNC Park to sift through e-mails. He finds one from Kevin Towers, his counterpart in San Diego: The Padres are prepared to give up the farm to acquire a revitalized Jason Bay.

Just like that, the primary goal of Huntington and the rest of the Pirates' new management, to begin restocking a depleted minor-league system, to begin forming the foundation for something more than mediocrity, is a click away.

But what will he do?

And how will team president Frank Coonelly react?

Or owner Bob Nutting?

It is safe to say no one will consult first baseman Adam LaRoche, but he has a fairly firm idea what he thinks might happen ...

"They'll keep the team together," LaRoche said. "They just have to. The fans in Pittsburgh ... man, we'd all get blown right out of that stadium if they took apart the team while we're winning. And I don't see that happening."

He grinned.

"You know why? Because we're going to force their hand."

Management has a unified stance on the matter.


Baseball 2008


"If this club has a chance to make a run at it, we'll be looking to add," Huntington said. "Right now, we're not saying this is the right group. They have to show us that. I don't want to say we have to be 10 games over .500 in the first month or anything like that. But, if we're succeeding, yes, we'll add."

At what cost, though?

And why bother?

The rough draft

To grasp why a successful 2008 could represent a serious disruption for the Pirates, it is necessary to understand what they hope, ultimately, to achieve.

Major League Baseball's economic system allows teams to control all players' rights for their first six years in the majors. After that, they can declare free agency, and their cost can rise exponentially.

Because of that, franchises such as the Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins -- all based in markets roughly the same size as Pittsburgh -- have focused on a similar model: Produce talent internally, and get the most out of those players while they still are affordable. From there, select a few to sign to long-term contracts. Trade the rest, before they can reach free agency, for prospects.

Then, refresh the cycle.

Money is not much of an issue in the blueprint, when considering the Indians, Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks -- who use the same model despite being in a larger market -- all made their league's championship series last year with payrolls no more than $20 million above the Pirates' $51.4 million.

As Coonelly, the man overseeing the Pirates' money, put it, "It's about how you invest it."

How much might they have to invest?

The Pirates are known to have made a profit each of the past four years, including a $12.7 million take before taxes in 2005, according to a document obtained this winter by the Post-Gazette. More profit surely will come this year, with MLB's revenue sharing and other national funds expected to provide teams in their economic bracket $60-70 million before a single ticket is sold.

Management still does not divulge specifics of finances, but there is more openness. That begins with the repeated statements that it could spend more this summer than the $49.4 million already committed toward major-league payroll, which again will rank among the bottom five in baseball.

No less telling, ownership publicly has pledged to spend up to the level of those model franchises, including the $70 million Brewers, once it is convinced the Pirates have a comparable foundation.

"We have the resources to improve," Nutting said. "And our commitment is there."

Part of the reason for that confidence, as several recent interviews with management revealed, is that the Pirates have sufficiently addressed their debt in recent years.

The franchise debt was at $118 million in 2005, and it remains more than $100 million. Moreover, it will increase in the coming season because of three major investments:



• The new Dominican Republic baseball academy, which could cost $4-5 million.

• The team's contribution toward furnishing the new Pirate City headquarters in Bradenton, roughly $1 million.

• The reconstruction of the former Outback Steakhouse at PNC Park into a full-time stadium amenity, also at roughly $1 million.

If that sounds ominous, it probably should not.

Sports franchises routinely carry nine-figure debt and, in the Pirates' case, they are very much in line with MLB's debt-service rule. That rule requires all teams to show $1 in profit for every $10 in debt, but it sets an easier standard -- $1 in profit for every $15 in debt -- for teams operating in their first decade in a new stadium. Thus, the Pirates, who occupied PNC Park in 2001, must show roughly $7 million in profit in the coming year.

Coonelly did not provide a projection for the Pirates' profit, but he described the debt as "manageable."

To be sure, it is in better shape than in 2003, when the Pirates are known to have exceeded the debt-service rule by enough of a margin that they were forced to trade away salary during the season. That resulted in the infamous dumping of standout third baseman Aramis Ramirez to the Chicago Cubs.

"The major difference in where we are today than when this team traded Ramirez," Coonelly said, "is that we don't have to make decisions based on finances."

Not even with Bay and shortstop Jack Wilson, whose salaries in 2009 will total $14.75 million?

"We don't have to move any player to get our finances where they need to be," Coonelly said. "We won't next year, either."

What the Pirates' blueprint would appear to lack, then, is not money.

It is talent.

There are three prospects considered above-average in the entire minor-league system: Andrew McCutchen, Steve Pearce and Neil Walker, all opening this season with Class AAA Indianapolis. Below that, one has to go all the way down to Class A for the next potential crop, all starting pitchers: Danny Moskos, Brad Lincoln and Duke Welker.

Small wonder management routinely refers to this as "the gap."

The overhaul of the scouting department, including a 50 percent budget increase, should help, as will having the No. 2 overall pick in the draft this June. The Dominican academy should pay off someday, too.

But not soon enough, apparently, to suit the Pirates. And that will mean parting with proven players for prospects.

"To infuse upper-level talent without waiting, that has to come through trades," Huntington said.

Once that gap is filled and the cycle begins, as the blueprint goes, some money will go toward signing young players to long-term contracts to avoid arbitration prices in the final three of those six years of retaining their rights. This happened this spring with starter Ian Snell. Other money will go toward keeping established players, even into their free-agency years, as recently happened with second baseman Freddy Sanchez.

The emphasis, though, will remain on the cycle.

"The reality is we're not going to keep everybody," Huntington said. "We have to pick the player with the most reliable track record, on and off the field. And that player has to want to stay. If a player is driven by dollars, we're going to be outbid by the New York, Los Angeles and Chicago teams. But if the right player is there, we certainly feel we can retain those."



Part of that responsibility surely will fall on new manager John Russell and the environment he creates. If players feel that sense of belonging, of believing they can succeed, as has been the case with the model franchises, that player might be more inclined to stay.

"We understand that our minor-league system has to be stronger, so change can happen," Russell said. "But we're telling all the players already: You want to stay in Pittsburgh? You can stay. Freddy is a great example. Show us you can be part of what we're trying to do. We'll keep you. We'll find a way."

Forced revision

It all sounds great, right?

So why the wait?

Some rebuilding surely would have been better than none at all, as per the blueprint.

Billy Beane, the innovative mind behind Oakland's low-payroll success in the past decade, described to reporters in December an epiphany he had while traveling to the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn. He thought about the tinkering he could do with his 76-win team, how he could add a piece here or there and ...

Forget it. He called his staff and informed them he would be blowing up the Athletics' roster and starting over.

"We don't want to sit in the middle, going in neither direction," Beane said at the time.

Within two weeks, Beane engineered a widely praised trade, sending All-Star starter Dan Haren and another pitcher to Arizona for six prospects, including a stunning five of the top 12 in the Diamondbacks' rich system.

The Pirates, in the same offseason, mostly stood pat with a 68-win team. They added two journeyman free agents, reliever Byung-Hyun Kim and infielder Chris Gomez, traded reliever Salomon Torres for two prospects and made five waiver claims.

It nearly was quite different. Huntington entertained trade offers for Bay, outfielder Xavier Nady and relievers Damaso Marte and John Grabow, coming close to deals on more than one occasion.

All stayed put.

"Plain and simple, the market wasn't there," Huntington said.

One example: When the Pirates and Chicago White Sox were discussing Bay, according to one source, the Pirates' prime target was Gio Gonzalez, a 22-year-old pitching prospect. But the White Sox flatly refused to include him, and talks stalled.

A month later, Gonzalez was one of three prospects the White Sox sent to Oakland for Nick Swisher, a 27-year-old outfielder -- two years younger than Bay -- with promising power but a .251 career average.

Clearly, teams were not willing to pay a premium for Bay, coming off a rare down year and a second summer of knee trouble.

What teams did want were the three young pitchers: Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Matt Capps. But the Pirates never allowed such talks to become meaningful, if only because of the painful realization that, if they traded any of those three, they essentially needed to get the same player back.

Remember: No serious pitching prospects above Class A.

Once all that sunk in, right around the holiday season, Coonelly and Huntington paused. Perhaps it would be better, the reasoning now went, to allow their veteran players -- Bay included -- to reestablish market value.

At the same time, they thought, perhaps a group that some thought underachieved last summer could find its way under Russell.

"We're not professing that this is a championship-caliber club, but there is reason to believe it can do better," Huntington said. "If it doesn't, and some individual players get back to their best levels, we still have a chance to bring valuable parts back in trades."

Why not do more, then, to bolster the 2008 team beforehand and give those individuals -- as well as the team -- a better chance to succeed?

"It was tough to say to ourselves, 'Hey, let's go throw another $20 million at this payroll because we're a 92-win-capable team, because we have depth to our shortstop and second base positions, or depth behind our No. 2 starter, closer or primary setup guy.' We just don't have the depth. Nor, frankly, are we convinced this club is ready to make that step."

It was tempting, all concerned acknowledge, to travel the Oakland route right away.

"We're not going to have the system be as deep as we need it to be as quickly as we want. We know that," Coonelly said. "If we moved Snell or Gorzelanny or Capps, the players people wanted in the types of deals we wanted to make, we could accelerate that process. That's a fact. And that would not be the most illogical step for this team to take."

But ...

"We decided against it because, one, it is not financially necessary to do so. Two, we think we can infuse talent to the group we have even as we continually look for right trades that can bring prospects. Three, we want to give this team a chance to contend, to win. We think these players and our fans deserve it."

Do not underestimate the priority the Pirates are placing on that latter count, even if it emerged by reluctant happenstance.

Management has taken an aggressive stance toward shaking the franchise's losing brand, of "changing the culture." But that will not be easy without tangible results: Another losing season would be the Pirates' 16th in a row, tying the 1933-48 Philadelphia Phillies for the longest streak in the four major professional sports.

That topic, considered taboo with previous management, now is discussed regularly, including in clubhouse addresses.

Eighty-two or bust?

"It would be nice to see it end," Nutting said. "It's not our goal for the long term, but the frustration with the streak ... if you think you're frustrated, I'm really frustrated."

Steady compass

So, the big question arises anew: What if, against all odds, the Pirates shape up as a contender through these next two months?

Would it mess up all that management hopes to achieve?

Consider the directive, from the top, that there will be no deviation from the blueprint.

"We've put together a plan, and we need to stay the course," Nutting said. "So many mistakes have been made in the past. It's easy to put plans together. It's easy to talk. But as soon as you hit a tough road, the temptation is to pull back, retreat and try something else. We cannot do that again."

In other words, if things go poorly in 2008, forget about adding.

"Tempting as it would be to try to patch together a performance that would knock that monkey off our back, it's much more important that we do it right and show discipline."

What about adding if the team wins?

"We will do that. We have the resources, and we want to win. But the plan will not change."

Perhaps not, but it could be delayed another few precious months.

Isolate on Bay, for instance: Contenders might covet him more near the July 31 trade deadline, when the desperate air of a pennant race can force more lopsided trades than those in the offseason. Moreover, Bay will be a free agent after 2009, so every game he plays leading up to that chips away at his value.

Marte is another: He has a $6 million club option for 2009 that surely will not be exercised, meaning he could walk away for nothing after this season. Although the market was surprisingly dry for his services this winter, that could change this summer.

"Winning won't mess us up," Coonelly said, laughing at the irony. "If I thought that Neal hanging onto Snell, Gorzelanny and Capps would keep us from getting to where we want to be, I'd make the tough decisions. I'd take the heat. I'm not concerned about that. If there are trades to be made, we'll make them."

Next, consider the borderline unimaginable notion that the Pirates could part with a legitimate prospect, as would be necessary to add experience in a midseason trade.

"Admittedly, it will be tough to give up the few prospects we do have," Huntington said.

So, if trades of proven players still could happen in midseason and prospects still are unlikely to be dealt to bolster a short-term run, the most likely path is that the Pirates would take on an expensive player from another team -- a rental, in the vernacular -- and part with a modest prospect.

"Our focus is on the long term. That's not going to change," Huntington said. "If we can do things in the short term that work with that, we'll do it. But we have to make sure we're not looking only at the short term because we feel great about winning."

It might be difficult for some to imagine, though, a rookie management team passing up all the accolades they would receive.

"Don't misunderstand: We'll feel great. The whole city will," Huntington continued. "There could be some awkward positions as we move along, but that's our reality."

The Pirates' winning in 2008 can produce one other potential positive, the way they see it.

"If we do well, our attendance will spike, and we'll generate more money that we can spend in the future," Huntington said.

"There's no question that winning would be emotionally satisfying for everyone, from the fans to me, but it also would be good financially," Nutting said. "The interests are all aligned."

Under construction

The interests appear aligned at field level, too, albeit temporarily.

Russell and his new staff face the immediate challenge of unifying a group that knows it could be splintered by mid-summer.

"Honestly, trade talk is something you have to deal with in this business every year," Russell said. "We've told the players what we expect of them, and we like what we're hearing back."

That might be simply because the players have a clear picture by now: Win, and they might stay together. Win in a convincing manner, and their group might be considered the core for the future.

But, if they lose ...

"Oh, we get traded," Wilson said.

"If we get off to a start like last year, everything's fair game," LaRoche said. "They can get rid of everybody."

If there are any complaints about this strange scenario in the clubhouse, they are hard to find. In fact, it seems to be getting embraced as motivation for a group that has many close friendships and good overall camaraderie.

"This is going to be all up to us," Sanchez said. "We understand that. We see it. Now, let's go out and show this team was put together for a reason, that we belong together."

And Bay, the team's best player and still the most important card in the trading deck?

Only two months ago, he voiced public disappointment with management's lack of activity over the offseason. But now, after having dealt with Coonelly, Huntington and Russell all spring and learning more about the plan, he sounds very much on board.

For as long as they will allow him to be, anyway.

"It's one thing to look at big-name free agents we might have added, but think about it: Are you spending $15 million a year on a guy to get, what, 20 games under .500 instead of 25?" Bay asked. "The Pirates want to see, like Milwaukee did, if they have the guys here to be that core. They're doing it the right way, I think. I have no doubt they have money to spend, but I can understand they don't want to spend it just to spend it."

It has been more than a decade since the Pirates last made an in-season acquisition aimed at boosting their chances to make the playoffs that same year. That was the Shawon Dunston trade in late 1997.

Bay expressed hope that another ringer is on the way.

"If we're in that position early on where we show them something -- and, like I've said before, that's going to take a lot of things going right -- I'd love that. I really would. I'd love for the Pittsburgh Pirates to be on the other end of the fire sale for once."

Dejan Kovacevic can be reached at dkovacevic@post-gazette.com.
First published on March 30, 2008 at 12:00 am