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Dave Molinari on the Penguins: Acquisition of Marian Hossa at trade deadline not a bad move
But was it the right move for this particular time?
Sunday, March 02, 2008

Timing, it has been said, is everything, and it usually is hard to argue with that.

It's why picking the numbers that win the Monday lottery doesn't matter much if you do it on Tuesday.

There's no payoff for playing the Monday winners on Sunday, either.

The timing has to be just right.

And that -- not what the Penguins got or what they gave up -- is the primary concern in the bold move general manager Ray Shero made to acquire Marian Hossa from Atlanta at the NHL trade deadline.

There's no way, on its own merits, that adding Hossa can be viewed as a negative, and nothing the Penguins surrendered in the deal will cause the franchise irreparable harm.

Sure, Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen should have long and productive careers, Angelo Esposito could develop into a quality NHL player and any first-round draft choice in a talent pool as deep as the one this June has a chance to become a solid contributor at this level.

Still, none of those players nor the pick left a void that can't be filled.

The real issue is about -- you guessed it -- timing, and whether the Penguins' Stanley Cup aspirations would have been better-served if Shero had put off such a high-stakes move for another season or two.

Giving up so much to address a specific need, at least when the player being added could leave via free agency in a matter of months, is not something teams can afford do very often, and it's far from certain the Penguins are a legitimate threat to win the Cup, which should be their ultimate objective, this season.

They might prove to be the class of the Eastern Conference and their core of individual talent gives them a chance of surviving any best-of-seven test, but it's not as if Hossa sealed the final hole in their lineup.

Goaltending is the most critical variable in any series, and the Penguins will be relying on either Ty Conklin -- a 31-year-old who, his remarkable regular-season run aside, has all of five minutes of NHL playoff experience -- or Marc-Andre Fleury, a 23-year-old with enormous potential but just 286 minutes of postseason experience at this level.

Never mind that their best player, Sidney Crosby, is still recovering from a high ankle sprain -- an injury that can recur with no warning -- and might not be fully over it until next season, or that no one is likening their defensive corps to the Larry Robinson-Serge Savard-Guy Lapointe group in Montreal 30 years ago.

That doesn't mean the Penguins can't win a Cup this spring. Just that there's ample reason to believe their prospects for doing so will be even greater in another year or so.

When the timing for a high-stakes deal like the one Shero made Tuesday figures to be a lot better.

Other post-deadline observations:

• If the Penguins win a Cup this spring and/or re-sign Hossa, Shero's gamble will go down as one of the most celebrated moves in franchise history. Fail on both counts and the deal will be viewed, at least in some quarters, as a sequel to Alek Stojanov for Markus Naslund.

• The Penguins obviously could have waited to pursue Hossa when he becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1 without surrendering the assets they sent to Atlanta, but getting him now gives them exclusive negotiating rights until his current contract expires. How much that will matter remains to be seen, but it could enable them to establish the parameters of an agreement, even if they don't finalize one before he tests the market.

• While ownership clearly had to sign off on a deal that added a $7 million salary to the payroll, even if it's for less than two months, there's no evidence Mario Lemieux and/or Ron Burkle pressured Shero into abandoning his patient approach to constructing a contender.

• Acquiring Hossa is the first tangible evidence ownership is willing to spend the money that will be generated by the city's new multi-purpose arena. While it will be a few years before those revenue streams begin to flow, now that it's guaranteed the venue will be erected (assuming the old St. Francis Hospital ever can be taken down, of course), the Penguins can invest money in players secure in the knowledge that they'll take in enough to cover those expenditures.

• Shero and his staff have spent countless hours crunching numbers and projecting payrolls and salary-cap ceilings, all with the idea of doing everything possible to keep the Penguins' core of talent intact for as long as possible. Still, it's a given that the Penguins will have to make some difficult personnel decisions during the next few years. And almost certain that, even though they'll be willing to spend at or near the maximum mandated by the league's labor deal, they're going to lose some quality players along the way.

I know he knows I know he knows ...

Only about 12 or 13 percent of NHL games go to shootouts, so odds are the Penguins and Atlanta will be able to settle the outcome of their game at Mellon Arena this afternoon in 65 or fewer minutes.

That would be unfortunate, because it would deny the crowd a chance to watch shootout man extraordinaire Christensen go head-to-head against one of the goalies he faced countless times in practice.

Like Fleury, who smiled broadly while recalling their epic confrontations.

"Sometimes, he scored," Fleury said. "Sometimes, I stopped him."

Christensen scored five times in eight shootouts this season and was 14 for 23 in his Penguins career. Fleury has a detailed scouting report on him but can't be certain it's comprehensive. And he might not until they've faced each other when there's more at stake than delivering a post-practice bottle of juice to the winner.

"There are at least three [moves] that I know of," Fleury said. "And he knows that I know them, so I don't know if he'd change them up or go for one he's good at."

First published on March 2, 2008 at 12:00 am
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