BRADENTON, Fla. -- A case can be made that no player's performance in 2008 will mean more to the Pirates than that of Paul Maholm.

Jason Bay?

Zach Duke?

No doubt, each could be a great variable.

In Maholm, though, the Pirates could have someone who tilts their scales in more ways than one.

Consider that he is a 25-year-old, left-handed starting pitcher. Enough said there, but throw in two bonuses: He has the pedigree of a first-round draft pick, and he showed tangible progress last season.

Next, consider that Maholm would represent the swing vote in a rotation that already includes two fine young starters in Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. If he gives the Pirates three, imagine the impact on the franchise blueprint, this summer and beyond.

The pitching staff's elder statesman sounds as if he can see it.

"I look at these guys, excluding myself, and they all fit the mold of young, outstanding talent, all looking to take it to the next level," Matt Morris said. "But, with Paul, I think -- and this is nothing against the other guys -- he's got the maturity to do it sooner rather than later. And that's only going to make this an even stronger staff."

Manager John Russell might see it, too, but he seems wary of pressuring Maholm.

"To have a staff where every guy you send out there gives you a legitimate chance ... that's a nice feeling," Russell said. "Is Paul going to make or break us? I wouldn't put that weight on anybody's shoulders. We're telling everybody we want them to play as a team. But we do want Paul to do what he's capable of doing."

Maholm's 2007 numbers hardly look encouraging: He was 10-15 with a 5.02 ERA. But a deeper look supports the view of many that he actually took a step forward in his second full season:

• After a 2-7 start with a 5.34 ERA, he went 8-7 in June through August. His ERAs in those three months were a consistent 3.74, 3.72 and 3.60.

• He was blown away in his only two September starts, but each was marred by lower back trouble that would shut him down. His season ERA was 4.32 before that.

• He had two of the Pirates' three complete games.

• His walk total was 49, well down from the 81 of 2006, and his hit batsmen were cut in half to six. That was largely responsible for lowering his opponents' on-base percentage from an unmanageable .374 to .339.

• He addressed many of those runners by getting 29 ground-ball double plays, most in the National League, and had a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 2.06, ranking seventh.

• He retired the side on 10 or fewer pitches 63 percent more often than the previous year, according to Bill James' new book, "Gold Mine."

"I do feel I got better," Maholm said. "Going into each outing down the stretch, I knew I was going to have my pitches. It felt great."

Maholm made a mechanical adjustment in late May under previous pitching coach Jim Colborn, tightening the swivel of his hips during the delivery. But, to hear Maholm tell it, the change had more to do with his mind than his mechanics.

"It's just rhythm," he said. "I feel like I finally got comfortable pitching the way I did before getting injured in 2004."

A line drive shattered his eye socket in a minor-league game in 2004.

"I don't know what went wrong, what changed, but it got back to where ... hey, this feels normal. I wasn't going to the bullpen working on five different things. It just kind of happened."

It was that rediscovery, Maholm added, that pushed him further this offseason. He engaged in unprecedented workouts and lost 15 pounds -- from 220 to 205 -- largely to avoid a recurrence of the back trouble.

He has found another benefit this spring.

"The biggest difference in Paul is that he's able to go through his delivery and do just about everything more easily because of being lighter," pitching coach Jeff Andrews said. "And I think it's going to help him keep that delivery where he wants it."

"I'm more flexible, have more stamina ... everything's easier," Maholm said. "I wish I would have done this a couple years ago."

No player at any position has drawn more raves at this early stage of the Pirates' camp. Maholm's pitches in bullpen sessions have been delivered with precision and obvious ease.

"I've been very, very impressed," Russell said.

"So far, so good," Maholm said. "The rhythm's definitely still there."

To carry that into the season, as the numbers attest, Maholm will need to pitch ahead and pitch often.

Getting ahead in any fashion is imperative for a pitcher whose opponents batted .385 after fell behind in the count, 2-0, but his primary emphasis will be on getting first-pitch strikes with breaking stuff. Last year, he opened with a fastball 44 percent of the time.

"I have to get them guessing a little more," he said.

Maholm also might do well to take the mound with greater frequency, as this eye-popping statistic confirms: He was 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA when pitching on four days' rest, 5-10 with a 5.07 ERA on five days' rest, 0-5 with a 9.12 ERA on six days or more.

The simple explanation is that sinkerballers are most effective when something is taken off their pitches, and slight fatigue can help that way.

"Overthrowing a sinker doesn't work out," he said.

Maholm seems to grasp the importance of the breakout year he hopes to have, but he is not nearly brash enough to analyze it much.

"I can see that, but I think all of us need to do our jobs," he said. "As long as you keep the team in the game, you give the team a chance to win. That's what I want to do."