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Clinton's lead shrinks over Obama in Pa. poll
Friday, February 22, 2008

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton retained a significant but reduced lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among Pennsylvania Democrats in a new poll released by Franklin and Marshall College.

The survey of registered Democrats shows Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Obama, 44 percent to 32 percent.

The 12-point margin was down from the 20-point gap found in another Franklin and Marshall poll in January, before former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards withdrew from the race.

A survey by Quinnipiac University earlier in February showed Mrs. Clinton at 52 percent among Pennsylvania Democrats, with Mr. Obama at 36 percent.

The F&M survey also suggested that Pennsylvania would once again be a battleground in the fall, with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the apparent Republican nominee, essentially tied when matched against either Democratic contender.

The survey was based on telephone interviews with 640 registered voters. The margin of error for all voters was plus or minus 3.9 percent; for the smaller sample of Democrats, it was 5.6 percent.

There was a significant geographic divide in the support for the two Democrats. Mrs. Clinton won handily among voters in the western half of the state, including Allegheny County.

Mr. Obama had narrow leads in the center of the state and the southeast, and a bigger edge in Philadelphia.

One negative note for Mrs. Clinton was that she had, by far, the highest unfavorable rating among all voters. Forty-one percent said they had a generally favorable opinion of the New York senator, while 43 percent had an unfavorable overall view.

For Mr. Obama, it was 46 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable.

The numbers were almost identical for Mr. McCain, 45 percent favorable; 26 percent unfavorable.

Voters of both parties cited the economy as the most important issue in the campaign.

Among Democrats, health care was second, followed by the war in Iraq. Homeland security was in second place for Republican voters.

Post-Gazette politics editor James O'Toole can be reached at jotoole@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1562.
First published on February 22, 2008 at 12:00 am
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