Fidel Castro's release of the reins yesterday sent a post-climactic ripple through the ranks of Cuban Americans. Those who oppose the regime -- and that's most of them -- celebrated two summers ago at the temporary handing of power to his brother, Raul.

Now, Cuban Americans in Pittsburgh say they are optimistic that reform is coming, with some semblance of economic freedom, but probably not soon.

"Castro casts such a shadow over everything that nothing will change until he has gone to meet his maker," said Raul Valdes-Perez, chief executive officer of Vivisimo Inc. "Even if he is specifically powerless, his influence is still too great."

Fidel Castro's voice, if no longer heard, is read in regular essays published in the state-controlled media.

Some people think he has died and that it serves the system to keep people from knowing it yet.

Victor Diaz, head of the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, said he and his family in Miami think that he's dead. "He hasn't been seen in public for a long time, and anyone could be writing" under his name. Whenever his death is announced, he said, "I think the status quo will not sustain itself."

Lourdes Sanchez Ridge, an attorney for Thorp Reed & Armstrong, voiced a similar attitude about the power Castro knows he holds over Cubans. She said she thinks he decided that by making the transition before he dies, his presence alone will keep control of the people. Had he died in power, she said, "I think people would be banging their pots out in the street."

Interestingly, she said, his announcement was made at 2 a.m. over the Internet. "People in Cuba didn't have access to that news because they don't have the Internet."

About 1.5 million Cubans and Cuban Americans live in the United States, two-thirds of them in Florida, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Cuban population is estimated to be about 6 percent of the roughly 12,000 Latinos counted in Allegheny County's 2000 census.

Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh, said he doesn't think Raul Castro will make the kind of changes most Cuban Americans want "but there will be economic changes."

"I think he wants to do them but he has had to be careful" because his brother has resisted some of his ideas, including reaching out to the United States, he said.

Stanley Cohen founded the Cuban Relief Project for B'nai B'rith locally and travels to Cuba several times a year. Among other services, the project runs a pharmacy in Cuba.

He said in his conversations with Cubans and some officials there, the Castro transition "doesn't mean much. There's an election coming up, and there's no question that Raul will be elected, probably rubber-stamped."

Those who spoke about their homeland yesterday said Cubans in this country would rush to help make a more dramatic transformation and to seek markets when the opportunity arrives.

"There are so many connections," said Mr. Valdes-Perez. "There will be a tremendous amount of interest to help rebuild. I think the future will be bright."

Mr. Diaz agreed. "Millions of expatriate Cubans are waiting to help. A lot of businesses are interested. This will be an opportunity for this country to finally reap benefits in making a better Cuba."

University of Pittsburgh professor Alejandro de la Fuente, a specialist in Cuban history, said he was in Cuba in December and saw that conditions are somewhat improved, especially the amount of food people can get with rationing cards. When the Soviet Union and its support of Cuba both crumbled, Cuba's economy reeled into crisis, losing $6 billion.

"People have adapted and social services have stabilized," he said. "It's significantly better than it was in the mid-1990s."

He said during his visit, people were expecting the formal transfer of power. "He [Fidel Castro] even anticipated it in one of these pieces he has been writing. He wrote that it wasn't his role to stay in power forever."

He said Raul Castro has "called for a national dialogue about the future, and people have seized that opportunity. He has criticized the efficiency of the Cuban economy."

Although state control over the economy will probably loosen over time, he said, the consensus is "fairly solid" that social programs should be preserved and protected.

"These are things that are dear to the Cuban people," he said. Among other benefits, Cuba provides free higher education and universal health care.

But many expatriate Cubans remember the regime's firing squads and know people who have been persecuted or imprisoned for just speaking or writing. Many who left Cuba did so after their property was taken from them.

For them, Fidel Castro has more than overstayed his welcome.

"Anytime I speak about Cuba, it's an emotional thing for me," said Mr. Diaz. "No one should wish for someone's demise, or to rejoice in someone's demise. It is not a Christian thing to do. But for all the human rights abuses over 40-plus years, this guy's a special case."