HARRISBURG -- A year ago, Republican presidential candidate John McCain "was being left for dead" by a lot of voters, said Pennsylvania GOP spokesman Mike Barley.

But if there's anything certain in politics, it's that change is likely. And the past six months have shown a remarkable reversal of political fortune for the U.S. senator from Arizona, especially in the Keystone State.

According to a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll released yesterday, Mr. McCain has leapfrogged comfortably ahead of his nearest competitor in Pennsylvania for the GOP nomination, Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Mr. McCain now leads the former New York City mayor by 30 percent to 14 percent. That's a reversal from the last F&M poll in August, when Mr. Giuliani led Mr. McCain by 32 percent to 19 percent. Trailing them are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 12 percent, actor/politician Fred Thompson at 8 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 7 percent.

Pennsylvania doesn't hold its presidential primary until April 22, so there is time for Mr. Giuliani to make up lost ground. But Mr. McCain's win in New Hampshire, and the continuing media focus on his efforts in other states like Michigan, seem to have boosted him in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Giuliani is pinning his hopes for a turnaround on Florida's Jan. 29 primary and the 21 states that will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

"I think Giuliani's thinking was to go after Florida and the big states with primaries on Feb. 5, like New York, New Jersey and California," Mr. Barley said. "But they didn't take into account how much media attention would be focused on the first few primaries" and the Iowa caucuses.

"Obviously McCain has benefited from that attention. It shows the power of the media."

G. Terry Madonna, poll director, said most recent national polls have Mr. McCain about 10 points ahead of Mr. Giuliani. He said he thinks Mr. Giuliani "has been hurt by his failure to be visible in the early contests for delegates." Also, some details about his personal life -- leaving his second wife for the woman who's now his third wife -- and his liberal social positions "have hurt him among some Republican voters."

As for Mr. McCain, Dr. Madonna said, "His maverick style is appealing at a time when Americans are feeling more estranged from the federal government."

Paying close attention to the situation is Bob Asher of Montgomery County, Pennsylvania's Republican national committeeman and a Giuliani supporter.

Asked about the decision to concentrate on Florida and the Super Tuesday states, he said, "That was [Giuliani advisers'] decision. We'll see whether it was the right one or not."

As to whether there's enough time for Mr. Giuliani to come back in Pennsylvania, Mr. Asher said, "Absolutely. He can turn this thing around."

But he said Mr. Giuliani will have to come on strong in Florida and win five or six states on Super Tuesday.

Mr. Barley, who isn't committed to any candidate, also said there's still time for Mr. Giuliani to win the state. "It's tough to prognosticate but so far nobody's pulling away with it,'' he said.

Mr. Asher said political polls should be taken with a grain of salt. Most polls in New Hampshire predicted victory for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, but New York U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won easily.

Among Democrats in the new Franklin & Marshall poll, Mrs. Clinton still leads her closest rival, Mr. Obama, by 40 percent to 20 percent in Pennsylvania. She led the senator from Illinois by 38 percent to 21 percent in August.

The results are based on interviews with 627 registered adults from Jan. 8-14. It was formerly called the Keystone Poll. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percent.