LAS VEGAS -- Nevada accepts gambling and prostitution, so it should come as no surprise to see it embrace presidential politics, which can embody elements of both.
For the next two weeks, Iowa and New Hampshire will dominate the time and resources of most of the candidates, but the day after the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary, the Silver State's newly minted caucuses will have a shot at the national spotlight. The 11 days before the Jan. 19 contest could be remembered as a turning point in the state's political history.
Nevada has held caucuses in the past, but they came so late in the nominating season that few paid attention. The new early caucuses, midwifed by the state's senior senator, Majority Leader Harry Reid, represent Nevada's first opportunity to be a real player -- a leap into the dark for a state with few established political traditions.
Democrats chose Nevada as a demographic complement to the traditional early states. Its heavy union presence and large Hispanic population offer contrasts to both Iowa and New Hampshire. Should those two state split their decisions, Nevada could be seen as a tie-breaker as the candidates rush toward the decisive round of contests on Feb. 5.
"If [Sen. Hillary Rodham] Clinton loses Iowa, I'm sure you'll see them putting a big push in there," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Nevada is the only contest for Democrats on Jan. 19, and, along with their party's South Carolina primary a week later, is the only real Democratic contest between New Hampshire on Jan. 8 and Feb. 5.
"It's going to be an intense spotlight that Nevada's voters have never seen before," said Kirsten Searer, communications director for the Nevada Democratic Party.
On the GOP front, Nevada faces more national competition. Michigan's primary is Jan. 15 -- the Democrats are effectively boycotting it, but not the Republicans -- and on the 19th itself, Nevada will have to vie for attention with South Carolina's Republican primary, a crucial contest in a larger state that's easier to reach from the East Coast headquarters of most national media outlets.
Among the Democrats, the campaigns of Mrs. Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have made the largest investments in Nevada. Both have extensive field organizations and are the only campaigns airing television ads in the state. Gov. Bill Richardson from nearby New Mexico has made the most campaign appearance in the state, but his cash-challenged operation does not have an extensive organization.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has concentrated his resources on Iowa, but he is counting on a proxy field organization from several unions that have endorsed him here, including the Communications Workers and the United Steelworkers.
But the biggest union here and perhaps the biggest source of suspense on the caucuses is Culinary 226. Every Democrat covets its endorsement. There have been few hints on which way it will go.
"It's huge," said Billy Vassiliadis, an Obama supporter and one of the state's most prominent Democrats. "Nevada is a state that is out of our political infancy but maybe still in our adolescence. It's not a state that's developed a lot of political institutions. But the Culinary is one; it's got high member discipline and smart leadership."
Questioned about the caucuses, several casino employees said they hadn't given them much thought. But Michel Tirado, a union steward at the giant pyramid-shaped Luxor hotel-casino, enthused over the chance she and other Culinary union members had had to hear presentations from most of the leading Democrats.
She said she was leaning toward Mrs. Clinton, although she had reservations about the senator's ties to Wal-mart while she was Arkansas' first lady. Ms. Tirado said she also like Mr. Edwards, but added that the union leadership's endorsement would weigh heavily with her.
"I would probably go with the union, because it's done so much for us, unless it was someone I just couldn't accept," she said.
The union has been reticent about its plans, other than to suggest that it will act in early January -- timing that has led to speculation that the leadership may watch the results in Iowa and New Hampshire to maximize the impact of its decision.
When asked if "early January" meant a post-Iowa announcement, Pilar Weiss, the union's political director kept her cards close to her vest.
"You know how many days there are in January," she said. "I'll leave it to you to decide what early means."
Mr. Vassiliadis' firm, R&R Partners, came up with the now iconic Las Vegas slogan, "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas." But he and others in the state's political hierarchy emphatically hope that what happens in the caucuses doesn't stay just here. They're hoping for a national impact.
"It seems that everything is coming together and we're going to have a heck of a turnout," Mr. Vassiliadis.
From the moment that the national committee sanctioned the early contest, the state's Democrats have geared up for the labor-intensive, logistical challenge of the caucus process. The rules are largely similar to those in Iowa. The party has hired several Iowa caucus veterans, including caucus director Jayson Sime, who was field director of the Iowa party four years ago. Similarly, Mike Moffo, now the field director for Mr. Obama, worked for Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John F. Kerry in Iowa in 2004.
Both the party and the individual candidates have the challenge of driving turnout to an election process alien to most Nevadans. Mr. Reid startled caucus organizers with a prediction that as many as 100,000 voters might show up. The party, eager to dial back expectations, now suggests that between 28,000 and 40,000 would constitute a healthy response.
"This isn't what you think of as a retail politics type of state," said David Damore, a member of the political science faculty of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "It's sort of an odd place to try to pull this off."
To educate potential voters, the Democratic Party, the campaigns, and various unions have staged scores of mock caucuses across the state. The Democratic Party has identified more than 500 caucus sites.
"We call it Caucus 101," said Hilarie Grey, communications director for the Clinton campaign here. "We've had extensive house parties to educate people on how to participate. We've trained more than 1,200 prospective precinct captains."
The GOP has mounted a more modest logistical effort, with fewer than 50 caucus sites for the Saturday vote. In another echo of Iowa, the Republican rules here are much simpler than the Democratic ones. Instead of a true caucus where partisans divide into groups and bargain for the supporters of candidates who do not meet a certain threshold of support, the GOP side will host what amounts to a straw poll.
But other parts of the new process will never be mistaken for Iowa.
To accommodate shift workers in the casinos, the Democratic party is setting up between eight and ten at-large precincts on the Strip where voters will be able to choose their candidates in the shadows of such only-in-Vegas landmarks as the Luxor, the Bellagio fountains and the revolving spire of the Stratosphere.
Here as elsewhere, national issues are likely to dominate presidential voting decisions, but the caucuses have prodded the candidates to speak to a variety of Nevada-specific issues, such as mining royalties, infrastructure needs in this fast growing state, and the federal proposal, universally vilified here, to establish a nuclear waste storage site at Yucca Mountain.
"Yucca Mountain is our ethanol," noted UNLV's Damore.
Mrs. Clinton, who has dominated the endorsement competition among the state's Democratic officeholders, was the early polling leader in the state although Mr. Obama has narrowed the distance between them in at least one recent poll. Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani had a consensus lead in early Republican polls although Nevada analysts consistently credit former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as having the only real GOP organization in the state.
"Romney has a nice base here," said Sig Rogich, a veteran businessman who is among the most influential Republicans in the state. Despite the surge for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in other GOP contests, Mr. Rogich said he saw little chance of a strong showing for him here.
"He's been conspicuous by his absence," Mr. Rogich said.
Mr. Coker, whose Mason-Dixon firm has extensive experience polling in the state, suggested that the early leads for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani were likely a product of their national name recognition.
"People hadn't been paying too much attention," he said. "You'll see more meaningful numbers as [Nevada voters] start to focus."
"I do expect we'll win, but anytime you do something for the first time, there are so many variables," said Ryan Erwin, senior strategist for the Romney campaign, who, at different times, has been the chief executive for both the California and Nevada Republican parties.
"He's been here," Mr. Erwin said, noting that his candidate has made far more appearances than any other Republican. "That's important in a state that sometimes has long had a chip on its shoulder because it's different."
Mr. Romney's Mormon faith may represent a challenge in some parts of the country, but it figures to be an asset in Nevada.
"We've got a high [Mormon] population here and that doesn't hurt us," said Mr. Erwin.
Brian Kominsky, the Nevada coordinator for Republican inconoclast Rep. Ron Paul of Texas promises a surprise.
"I think we'll win. At the very least, we'll do well," Mr. Kominsky said.
"Who knows?" said Mr. Damore. "The Libertarian thing has some resonance here. If the Republicans have a low turnout, anything can happen."
Another unknown is the longer term impact of this political experiment. Nevada has a recent history as a swing state in presidential years. Former President Bill Clinton twice carried it by narrow margins. President Bush followed suit. Democrats hope that the legacy of the caucuses will be an organizational boost that will bring new voters, and bolster a political infrastructure that will pay dividends in local and state as well as national elections.
In the churning of the election calendar over the last year, there were times when Nevada's place in the political sun seemed to be in danger of eclipse. That could still happen. If, for example, one candidates on each side swept the earlier states, Nevada could be a national asterisk.
"No one knows," said John Ralston, the state's most preeminent political analyst. "But serendipity has played a hand for us."
Noting that Nevada was originally to designated as the second nomination contest and is now third on the Democratic list, he said, "If the [earlier] states split, Nevada will be seen as very important."
