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N.H. voters excited as ever
Hurried primary calendar hasn't dimmed sense of importance
Sunday, December 09, 2007

GILFORD, N.H. -- In less than a month, Beverly Maul will vote in her first New Hampshire primary election. She's thrilled.

"They talk about it everywhere," said Mrs. Maul, a Monroeville native who moved to the Granite State's scenic lake region three years ago. "They talk about it in spinning class. They talk about it in my stitching group."

She and her husband, both retired history teachers and lifelong Democrats, have already seen the party's three top presidential contenders: John Edwards, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Yet, in the traditional independent streak of their adopted home, they're supporting an underdog candidate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

Snow caps the hills, ice coats the edges of Lake Winnipesaukee, and, despite efforts by dozens of larger states to challenge New Hampshire's prominent role in next year's nominating process, the primary season once again is in full swing, with voters heading to the polls on Jan. 8.

Two states, Michigan and Florida, face penalties from the national Democratic and Republican parties for moving their election dates into January. On Feb. 5, more than 20 states, including New York and California, will hold primary elections.

Nevada and South Carolina also have earlier, January primaries.

The shift has placed even greater emphasis on New Hampshire and the Iowa caucuses five days earlier, as candidates try to prove their electability before the February crush.

"The candidates have been here as much as they've ever been here," said Bill Gardner, New Hampshire's secretary of state. "They've been here even more because it started much earlier."

Mr. Gardner, who has served in his post for more than three decades, selected the earliest primary date in his state's history, trying to preserve a place in the national spotlight that stems from Dwight Eisenhower's victory over Sen. Robert A. Taft of Ohio in 1952.

Romney needs a win

Again, long-shot contenders are hoping to upset well-funded candidates as they appeal to voters one handshake at a time.

"I think the thing that makes us unique will continue to make us unique," said Thomas D. Rath, a senior adviser to the campaign of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. "Other states can match us on the calendar, but it's the intensity that is not easily replicated."

The two early contests have long been formidable obstacles. Only one candidate has ever lost both and gone on to win his party's nomination. That was Bill Clinton in 1992, when he was up against two local favorites, Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts.

Among Republicans, Mr. Romney is the frontrunner, with his support at 37 percent in a Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely primary voters released last week. Arizona Sen. John McCain received 20 percent, while former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani received 16 percent.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was under 10 percent, but he's been moving up quickly in polls in Iowa, where he has attracted evangelical and conservative Republicans.

Such voters play a significantly smaller role here, said Andrew E. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire at Durham, which gives greater opportunities to three other top candidates.

Mr. McCain, who defeated George W. Bush in the state's 2000 primary, is bypassing Iowa altogether, just as he did eight years ago. He hopes to attract support from independents who can vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary.

Trailing in national polls, Mr. Romney has focused considerable resources on both Iowa and New Hampshire. Since declaring his candidacy in February, he's attended more than 133 events here, traveling almost 3,500 miles.

He's been running television ads the entire time, spending over $2.4 million in the only statewide commercial station, WMUR, according to a Web site maintained by Dante Scala, a UNH political science professor.

Mr. Romney focuses on lower taxes and curbs on illegal immigration (although a front page Boston Globe story last week about undocumented immigrants working for a landscaping company that tended his property became an embarrassment).

"If Romney wins Iowa, he'll win New Hampshire," Mr. Smith said. But a loss in Iowa, he said, could cause the former governor's support to crumble quickly.

Mr. Giuliani, known for his moderate social views, also could lose his strong national standing if he flops here. The former mayor only recently ramped up his New Hampshire operation, starting his first television campaign in mid-November.

"They were trying to downplay expectations for New Hampshire and Iowa," said Marshall Cobleigh , a former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives who is advising the Giuliani campaign. "People aren't dumb. They read the newspapers."

Jeffrey Grappone , a spokesman for the campaign, said Mr. Giuliani is committed to competing in the state.

"Mayor Giuliani has been campaigning steadily here all year," he said. "Now it's getting closer to the election, and it makes sense to be here more often."

Best place to be

Mr. Cobleigh, who has followed New Hampshire politics for more than 60 years and has met every president since Harry Truman, lamented the earlier primary date, expressing concern that the holiday season would distract people. Also, the state's voters go to the polls just five days after the Iowa caucuses, as opposed to the customary eight days.

But campaigns are having no problem attracting people to their events, even as Christmas shopping picks up. They often gather in diverse groups of independents, Republicans and Democrats who want to size up candidates in person.

"I would like to start hearing another reason to vote for Hillary other than she's a woman," said Bonnie Barnes, a hospital employee who came with her 97-year-old mother to see Mrs. Clinton speak at the Gunstock Ski Lodge in Gilford. "Tell me why I should vote for you."

Seated next to her was Erin Lovett, a dance instructor and self-described "classic Democrat" who is supporting Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian Republican from Texas who fiercely opposes the Iraq war.

"I'm looking for an immediate end to the war and a responsible foreign policy," Ms. Lovett said.

Behind her, Rita Horner, 81, said, "New Hampshire people are very tricky. We have a lot of free thinkers."

She and her husband, however, have no doubts about the race. They are ardent, longtime supporters of Mrs. Clinton, arguing that she alone has enough experience to lead the country. They volunteered for her husband in 1992.

"Truly, New Hampshire, the first of the primary states, is going to set the tone for what happens moving forward," Mrs. Clinton told a crowd of several hundred people. "And we've got to nominate a Democrat who will be in line with our Democratic values and be willing to fight for them."

According to a Rasmussen poll from last week, she still holds a lead among Democratic candidates in New Hampshire, with 33 percent. But Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has closed the gap to single digits, receiving 26 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina received 15 percent.

"If Clinton wins Iowa, she'll probably win here, and she'll probably be the nominee," Mr. Smith, the UNH professor, said. If Mr. Obama wins the caucuses, New Hampshire could turn into a tight race, while a victory by Mr. Edwards in Iowa likely would hamper Mr. Obama here and favor Mrs. Clinton.

Today, Mr. Obama's campaign is hoping to get a boost from a Manchester appearance by one of his most famous supporters, Oprah Winfrey.

Maria Varni , a new primary voter who recently left a job in Los Angeles to be near her boyfriend, said only Mr. Obama has the potential to unite the country. She's been volunteering most of her time for the campaign, writing nearly 400 postcards every week.

For her, New Hampshire is the best place to be as the first votes of the 2008 election near.

"I just thought I was going to be in the middle of nowhere," she said of her relocation. But, "I think civic pride in New Hampshire is just outstanding. In California, that just wouldn't happen."

Jerome L. Sherman can be reached at jsherman@post-gazette.com or 202-488-3479.
First published on December 9, 2007 at 12:00 am
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