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Putin rolls on: Russia may be back to engineering its elections
Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Sunday's parliamentary elections in Russia produced a much-expected bone-crushing victory for United Russia, the party headed by President Vladimir V. Putin. United Russia received 64.1 percent of the votes, with the Communists, who finished second, garnering only 11.6 percent and most of the rest going to parties allied with United Russia. Turnout was 63 percent.

The impression that the old days of Soviet-engineered stacked elections might well be back was reinforced in Chechnya, where in an excess of zeal United Russia was given 99.4 percent of the vote in a 99.5 percent turnout.

International observers, their ranks greatly reduced by the limits that the Russian government put on their activities, called the elections not free or fair. The opposition was hassled, the media curbed and barriers placed in the way of open campaigning, noted monitors from various European countries, some of whom opted out prior to the election due to the uncooperative approach of the Russian government.

The rest of the world is left with two questions, one that will be answered eventually and one which can't be answered easily. The first is what next for Mr. Putin, now savoring his party's electoral victory. His second term finishes in March, and, according to the Russian constitution now in effect, he cannot be elected to a third immediately. But it is hard to imagine him out of the top seat, with someone else as president, even if he were to choose that person. His party, with some 315 of the 450 seats in parliament, has enough to amend the constitution to permit his candidacy to continue in office.

The second question, basically unanswerable, is whom the Russians would have voted for if the elections had taken place in an entirely free and open context. On the surface, the majority of Russians may well support Mr. Putin. The country has come back from its economic and political disarray after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is, of course, the gap in standards of living between the politicians and rich oligarchs who disport themselves flagrantly in Moscow, St. Petersburg and abroad, and the vast mass of the Russian people. But that phenomenon is to be found in many countries, even some that hold ostensibly free and fair elections.

What the vast mass of Russians really think about their leaders has been a question that has tormented those in power, from the pre-1917 czars to the Communist Party secretaries who ruled until 1991. Generally, no one ever finds out because a system like Russia's and a people like the Russians never put together circumstances that permit the electorate to express its real opinion.

In the meantime, Mr. Putin and United Russia win elections by big margins, President Bush and the Europeans huff and puff a little, and the Russian government keeps on cashing the big oil checks and throwing its weight around.

First published on December 5, 2007 at 12:00 am