It seems sad to declare a conference that is intended to make peace between the Israelis and Palestinians a failure in advance, but next Tuesday's meeting in Annapolis seems unlikely to produce anything useful.

The main problem is that after a very active effort by the United States during the Clinton years, the Bush administration dropped the matter like a hot potato when it took power. Now, seven years into President Bush's tenure, with circumstances in the Middle East as bad as they have been in many years (including now a crisis in Lebanon), the administration has decided to organize a conference that is supposed to put the Israelis and one faction of the Palestinians together. Also invited is a supporting cast of some 40 countries and organizations.

Some very basic problems stand in the way of a successful conference. First, the Palestinians will in principle be represented by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He heads Fatah, which does not control Gaza and which rules only in the part of the West Bank that Israeli settlers do not occupy. Fatah was defeated by Hamas in democratic elections in 2006 and on the battlefield in Gaza earlier this year, in spite of U.S. and Israeli military support of it. Second, the Israeli side will be led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a weak leader dogged by corruption charges at home and who is in questionable health.

So far, reports from the region indicate the two sides have not been able to agree on an agenda or even an anodyne shopping list of issues to be addressed. The Palestinians want specificity, including a timetable for arriving at an independent state. The Israelis so far have indicated no willingness to give up anything, including their illegal settlements in the West Bank.

The Syrians will probably not come, since the Israelis have not agreed to put the future of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on the agenda. The Saudis were reluctant to attend, but said yesterday that they would be there.

The Bush administration wants the conference so that its critics and history will not be able to say it did nothing to move the Middle East peace process forward. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, like a pitcher for a bad baseball team, just wants to win one during her four years on the mound.

Prospects for the conference are poor. If it does not end well, it does not mean that the parties do not want peace. It does mean that this administration is not in a position to make such a peace at this stage of its life.