Taiwan is playing a dangerous game of chicken with China over the island's aspirations to independence.
Some of the Taiwanese continue to favor independence for the island. For China itself, that idea is anathema, and it has said it will not permit independence to occur. At the same time, commercial, cultural and political ties between Beijing and Taipei develop.
The United States' position is that Taiwan is an integral part of China, but it opposes any imposition of Chinese control over Taiwan by force.
Taiwan's leaders are currently rattling China with actions that could be provocative. Taiwan is considering applying again for membership in the United Nations. It held a military parade in Taipei on Tuesday, which it considers its national day. The display was the first such event in 16 years, with lots of military hardware passing in review, including rockets capable of reaching the mainland and U.S., French and Taiwanese-origin warplanes.
Taiwan is taking a chance with China, gambling that Beijing will not retaliate, with the Olympics coming up next summer. It is a perilous game. China is undergoing a mild but sensitive internal leadership struggle itself, with important appointments to be made soon at the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. Four top military appointments have just been made, each elevating to greater authority an officer with experience at facing Taiwan across the straits.
This week China indicated that it will tolerate no United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed on Myanmar. President Bush has expressed support for Myanmar protesters and first lady Laura Bush placed an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday urging change in Myanmar. China's point is that Myanmar borders on it and lies firmly within its sphere of military, economic and political influence, not America's.
Taiwan's gamble is that China will not dare swat it at this point. Its leaders should not forget, however, that, apart from the economic relationship between the United States and China, American forces are very occupied with wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan and would be hard-pressed to come to the island's rescue if China chose to act against it now. Hosting the upcoming Olympics is, of course, a deterrent to Beijing, but neither Taiwan nor the United States should forget that China places a very high priority on blocking off Taiwanese independence, now and in the future.
The game Taiwan is playing is, in fact, an accident waiting to happen. Washington should tell its leaders to cool it.